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Clive Corcoran

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  • Market Euphoria Continues As We Get Ready To Jump Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    With so much central planning and tinkering in capital markets by central bankers, and so much asymmetry between those with access to cheap money and those without, it is debatable whether Keynes, were he still alive, would still want to subscribe to the notion that markets might be either rational or irrational.

    In the post GFC world markets are best understood as dysfunctionally manic/depressive.
    Sep 7, 2012. 07:37 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Debt Crisis: Unending Promises Without Results [View article]

    Good point about the hope that eventually the whole issue will get so murky that people will lose track/lose interest in the matter.

    Meanwhile as long as the ECB keeps buying bonds eventually the French and German banks that were stuffed to the gills with dodgy sovereign debt issue will have transferred it over to the EZ public balance sheet...and ultimately German taxpayers and those from Finland etc will realize how they should have been paying closer attention
    Aug 19, 2012. 05:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The VIX A Value Play? [View article]
    A very clearly written article which I found interesting
    Jun 21, 2012. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yen Breaks to the Downside [View article]
    One of the key factors that pushes the yen higher is the activity of the People's Bank of China (PBOC)

    They have at least two motives:

    1. China wants to diversify its holdings of FX reserves so that it is less reliant on the USD (esp if more QE is on the horizon) and the yen is a currency for which there is a deep and liquid market.

    2. The higher the yen is against the US dollar and other currencies the more competitively priced will be Chinese goods for exporting to major consumer markets.

    Despite what the BOJ may say the PBOC have a larger wallet.
    Jul 17, 2011. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Europe's Central Banks Are Staving Off Catastrophe [View article]
    Trichet, who has been carrying the burden of propping up the basket case economies has clearly had enough. He is grasping towards a fiscal union with talk of an EU Ministry of Finance etc.

    Somehow cannot see Germans, Finns, and even the electorates of those not in the EZ but in the EU (who are implicated because of the predicament of their private sector banks who are stuffed with peripheral debt) going for a fiscal union.

    It's a double bind
    Jun 2, 2011. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex Déjà-Vu: China to the Rescue [View article]
    While it is true that the CRA's granted a AAA rating to the issuance of paper by the EFSF, it is worth reflecting on the fact that they have been (very) wrong before.
    May 29, 2011. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Broker-Dealers Warning of a Collapse? [View article]
    Well said Jason C
    May 29, 2011. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Playing a Game of Brinkmanship: Investors Should Limit Exposure [View article]
    This covers a lot of ground and most of the analysis is sound.

    Only point of contention is the claim that the Euro is a massive short.

    As your chronicle of the events in Germany during the 1930's shows, human beings have a remarkable capacity for denial and ignoring warning signals for years. Too many fund managers are shorting the euro because of their belief in the imminence of the EZ's demise. That's one sure way to ensure that there will be - as was seen last week - lots of abrupt short covering rallies while the Armageddon scenarios are postponed
    May 29, 2011. 10:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Foreign Exchange: An Asset Class in Its Own Right? [View article]
    Interesting article but the Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Euro fund you cited has miniscule volume. On Friday May 27th the ETF traded just 220 shares. Much better to trade FXE.
    May 29, 2011. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Death Derivatives': Wall Street's Latest Ill-Advised Maneuver [View article]
    I see these new instruments as similar to a balloon payment that just keeps getting rolled over inter-generationally. That way the day of reckoning can be indefinitely postponed.
    May 25, 2011. 06:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Germany Shouldn't Leave the Euro [View article]
    Without a federally mandated guarantee facility the ECB will not be able to carry on propping up the sovereign debts of the peripherals - for which there is virtually no demand from the private sector.

    Politics is against a United States of Europe and, in my rather bleak assessment, at some point the ECB's lack of committed capital will cause a run on the euro.
    May 25, 2011. 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Will Emerge From This Crisis From the Top Down [View article]
    The Achilles heel of the Eurozone experiment always has been the disconnect between a monetary union and a political plurality.

    The only real possibility - which would enable fiscal transfers and a "federal guarantee" of the ECB's obligations is a United States of Europe. If you believe that that is likely I have some vintage dot com shares from 1999 that you might be interested in.
    May 22, 2011. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? [View article]
    Technically many global indices look vulnerable including the big ones in the US but the problem with citing all of the weak "fundamentals" that you have done is that for more than 2 years markets have been supported by bad news.

    Weak data is sure to keep Fed policy accommodative and as Mr Bernanke has said on many occasions one of the focal points of monetary policy is to promote higher asset prices. Bears have lost a lot of money by fighting the Fed and by taking on 3X leveraged short positions - as some of the ETF's you mentioned are - calling a top in the current market could prove to be rather costly
    May 22, 2011. 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading the Pound [View article]
    George Osborne is the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer i.e. the head of finance and not the Prime Minister.

    One other supportive factor for sterling is that it enjoys - to a much lesser extent than the Swiss franc - an appeal to wealthy Europeans and those in the Middle East - who are nervous about the euro. This also helps to explain why so much private wealth finds its way into real estate in London
    May 22, 2011. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare for a Fed Hike... in 2018? So Says Goldman Sachs [View article]
    If you're right - and you just might be - then all of the pseudo-scientific talk about a Keynesian end point which is being peddled by such luminaries as PIMCO amounts to no more than a hill of beans.
    May 22, 2011. 06:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment