Seeking Alpha

Clumsy Rick

View as an RSS Feed
View Clumsy Rick's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Zumiez beats by $0.28, beats on revenue [View news story]
    PF Q4 EPS $0.62, after all exclusions and lower than expected tax rate ($0.05 benefit from taxes, incl $0.02 company called out in press release, based on using guided tax rate- last years)
    Mar 13 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedgeye's Brian McGough decides to rain on Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF +28.3%) parade after the retailer soared off of Q3 results to put an end to the bleeding at the retailer for the moment. He calls the quarter "lousy" when viewed in isolation, while others note the large short interest position built up in ANF is accounting for part of the outsized rally with short covering in play. [View news story]
    Lousy in isolation? earnings outlook 15%-20% higher now for this year, revenue declines look like bottomed in Q2 and improving...even if its somehow lousy, its a lot less lousy then what the market was baking into the stock
    Nov 14 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind the Best Buy (BBY) numbers: The earnings beat knocked out by the retailer was boosted by a favorable tax rate, 30.6% compared to 34.6% previous. In addition, a seemingly strong free cash flow number is blunted by factoring in the large jump in account payable to $1.2B from a $561M a year ago. Shares +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Actually, I saw the extra week and had accounted for it. I don't like the way they broke out the results either (why make someone ask for the impact on the call?), but the fact is that they told analysts there would be an extra week in advance. In hindsight, I see not all analysts factored this into their estimates so the consensus number was a hodge-podge. Either way, I dont think it mattered. There was a vocal chorus calling for a big miss that didnt materialize. That, combined with an interim CEO that is at least saying the right things, is why the stock has done well since the report in a down market.
    May 25 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind the Best Buy (BBY) numbers: The earnings beat knocked out by the retailer was boosted by a favorable tax rate, 30.6% compared to 34.6% previous. In addition, a seemingly strong free cash flow number is blunted by factoring in the large jump in account payable to $1.2B from a $561M a year ago. Shares +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Payables were 5.7 BN, down from 6.1 BN a year ago. The 1.2 BN decline in the cash flow statement is from Q4. And its already factored into the cash flow. What see is what you get.

    Tax rate took off a nickel. EPS still well ahead of expectations.
    May 22 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Zumiez (ZUMZ): Q1 beats across the board on a 22% jump in total revenue. Net earnings more than doubled as the teen-apparel retailer continues to benefit from sustained growth in same-store sales. The company lowers EPS estimates for Q2 now expecting to earn between $0.04 - $0.06 per share. Street estimates were for an EPS of $0.10.  [View news story]
    Guidance includes $0.03 of previously announced charges for moving a DC and headquarters that the Street is not including in its estimates.
    May 17 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now's The Time To Buy Best Buy [View article]
    Even if that is true (and I don't agree), there is still a great trade here. Both RSH and CC were in worse situations then BBY is now a few times in the past. Both brought in new mgt, as BBY is doing, cut some costs, closed some stores, refocused the business and saw a nice lift to earnings and a huge lift in their stocks. CC more than tripled and it then took several more years for the business to turn down again (fatally).
    May 14 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now's The Time To Buy Best Buy [View article]
    Not sure how anyone could mistake BBY's revenue since 2008 as "collapsing". Domestic revenues growing all but one year (down 0.4% in 2011) and total revenues up every year. Operating margins down 110 bps to 4.3%....I've seen a heck of a lot worse. But the stock sure has acted like your description. EPS have been about flat since 2008, but the stock has lost over 50% of its value on pure multiple compression. A little over 2x Ebitda? This company doesn't need to have much positive news (i.e., strong CEO hire, slight op earnings growth) for you to get 25%-50% upside in short order.

    disclosure: painfully long, but more comfortable then ever of upside potential
    May 13 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) FQ3 report: The EPS shortfall was largely due to higher-than-expected clothing costs, which led to Abercrombie's gross margin falling 350 bps Q/Q, to 60.1%. Same-store sales were up 7% Y/Y, compared with 9% in Q2. A&F same-store sales rose 4%; Abercrombie Kids rose 6%; and Hollister Co. rose 8%. ANF -11% premarket. (PR)  [View news story]
    The PR quote cited does not say the EPS short fall was from higher costs. It says gross margins were down because of higher costs and flat AURs. Big difference. In fact, the PR does not talk about a short fall in EPS relative to consensus at all.

    Average unit costs were up considerably, but this was not a surprise. It was as the company forecasted and as analysts expected, which was confirmed on the conference call. The flat AURs part of the equation is where the company fell short of expectations and this was due to the higher discounts and promotions necessary to drive sales (as well as mix), as I stated above. Not that it matters at this point, since anyone listening to the conference call or having read an analyst note since then knows this.
    Nov 17 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) FQ3 report: The EPS shortfall was largely due to higher-than-expected clothing costs, which led to Abercrombie's gross margin falling 350 bps Q/Q, to 60.1%. Same-store sales were up 7% Y/Y, compared with 9% in Q2. A&F same-store sales rose 4%; Abercrombie Kids rose 6%; and Hollister Co. rose 8%. ANF -11% premarket. (PR)  [View news story]
    EPS shortfall was NOT due to higher-than-expected clothing costs. Costs were known for months, with only a little variability due to mix. The miss was due to higher discounts and promotions that were necessary to drive the business due to slowing sales internationally. Also, expenses were higher than expected, with no real explanation given yet.
    Nov 16 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GPC Earnings Preview: Positive Signs [View article]
    UPDATE: The industrial production growth for August was released today and was up a better-than expected 0.2% (versus expectations for a flat reading after strong growth in July). This reading is consistent with my expectations for Motion Industries to grow 13%-15% in Q3 and for GPC to deliver better than expected revenue and earnings.
    Sep 15 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Abercrombie & Fitch's High PE Should Be History [View article]
    I agree with Geordy- its accounting. If you take the fixed portion of store expenses (rent, D&A, etc) out of sga and add it gm, ANF's gross margins were about 45% and sga about 37% last year. This is not a perfect equalizer by any means as retailers place expenses in different buckets on the P&L but it shows ANF is not that far off its peers.
    Aug 20 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • July Monthly Sales Report: Consumer Electronic Retailers Came Up Big [View article]
    EV/EBITDAR is 4.3x. I wouldn't say I'm optimistic about earnings in that they will be "good", but just that expectations have gotten so low that all the company needs to do is meet (or even miss slightly) published estimates and the stock should go higher. Street is looking for about (3%) same store sales, with the latest updates and buy-side chatter closer to (5%). We still have August to acct for, but this data suggests same store sales closer to (1%).
    Aug 14 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Monthly Sales Report: Consumer Electronic Retailers Came Up Big [View article]
    BTW, when this data came out last month, it was worse than expected and BBY, RSH and others all sold off. Now, the data comes out and its better than expected and it gets ignored, or overlooked, because of the NPD data.
    Aug 12 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Monthly Sales Report: Consumer Electronic Retailers Came Up Big [View article]
    The M/M comparisons are seasonally adjusted. There are unadjusted numbers as well. I look at both. The seasonally adjusted are nice for capturing trend, but the unadjusted are what I use for correlating to BBY growth. Historically, it has generally been a very good indicator. Trend wise, the data shows July was a lot better than June, even with bad video game sales. The unadjusted numbers suggest SSS down about 0.5%, assuming the trend carries into August.
    Aug 12 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Monthly Sales Report: Consumer Electronic Retailers Came Up Big [View article]
    Because most people (especially shorts) focused on the headline-grabbing NPD data out last night...video game sales the lowest they have since 2006. Video games are a part of the US Commerce report, so, as I had speculated a few days ago, other categories are more than making up for video game softness.

    Analysts are looking for same store sales (SSS) decline at BBY of 2%-4%....this report from the commerce dept is more consistent with flat to down 1% SSS for the quarter...
    Aug 12 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
28 Likes