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  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    Not trying to prophesize doom - just took the graphic directly from Apple's investor site which displays 1-year rolling numbers.

    I would agree that Apple has a fair chance at increasing back to $600. I did, after all, state that I wouldn't bet against them. Then again, the same can be said for any individual stock's growth potential relative to a portfolio of 500 stocks.
    Aug 8, 2013. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    Ever-thinning margins tend to be the name of the game in tech products as competitor products play catch up. The key is whether Apple can deliver a new product with high margins to repeat the cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see something interesting come out in the wearable tech area, as mentioned by Scott Trader. Will this be a game changing product? I have my doubts; however, as mentioned, I won't be betting against them.
    Aug 8, 2013. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Road Ahead For U.S. Met Coal Producers [View article]
    Fair enough, although with rebounding iron ore prices and Chinese steel production numbers that surprised many, I would hesitate to say that 2013 is a forgone conclusion.
    Jul 17, 2013. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Road Ahead For U.S. Met Coal Producers [View article]
    The main reason is the shorter shipping distance. Once coal from App reaches an export terminal, it has a roughly 3+ week journey to Asia (from the East Coast, slightly less from the Gulf Coast terminals).
    Jul 17, 2013. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Road Ahead For U.S. Met Coal Producers [View article]
    Australian met coal has proven very sticky, which is driving much of the problem for U.S. producers. As global seaborne demand has slackened almost no Australian production has come offline, so the first to take the hit is the more expensive U.S. coal.
    Jul 17, 2013. 01:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Copper Oversupply [View article]
    There's obviously a lot of factors in play; most importantly is the mid-term demand from China. The below article released today ties in well (notice the inventory levels cited are only LME):
    Jun 25, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impacts From The Proposed Chinese Coal Import Ban [View article]
    The Chinese recently revised the criteria of the proposed ban - upping the sulfur requirement to 2%. This wouldn't impact the ILB or NAPP but should free up exports from CAPP (about 1Mst in 2012).
    Jun 4, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Price Forecasts [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion, all the prices I'm referring to are for natural gas. Specifically, the various profitability levels for dry (gas-only) production versus wet (gas as a byproduct of oil) production.
    May 21, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Snapshot Of Cloud Peak Energy's Q1 Results And Outlook [View article]
    Frank, thanks for the comment. Unfortunately the Port St. Helens and Coos Bay terminals always seemed like long shots. I know Coos Bay didn't really have much in the way of producer backing - not sure about Port St. Helens. I think we're seeing a narrowing down to the more feasible projects (e.g. lower traffic, etc) - the first of which will probably be the Coyote Terminal.
    May 8, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Projections For 2013 Coal Exports And Impacts To Producers [View article]
    User 353732, I'd absolutely agree with you in regards of the long-term impacts of exports to the U.S. coal producers (I go into this in some detail in previous articles). In this article I was looking at the near-term impacts of a decrease in 2013.
    May 7, 2013. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody's Q1 Results And Coal Outlook [View article]
    T1243, that's a great point - probably warrants an article of it's own. I took a pretty long-term view in the article, focusing primarily on the growth of the industry and how Peabody is positioned.
    Apr 26, 2013. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Natural Gas Prices Are Impacting Coal [View article]
    I read some data from the American Association of Railroads that in early April year-over-year weekly coal shipments have finally started to increase - the first time in 37 straight weeks.
    Apr 18, 2013. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Natural Gas Prices Are Impacting Coal [View article]
    Moses, I agree - there's a lot of volatility but I believe the fundamentals are there.
    Apr 17, 2013. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Production At Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Mine [View article]
    2nd Update: Still no more news this morning as approval has not yet been given to allow for an investigation of the pit. It does indeed look worse than expected - I'm amazed they left anything in the pit! Nevertheless, I still believe now would be a good time for contrarian investors to pick up some shares as its doubtful that the damage/repairs will reach the $1.7B level that the a 2% decline would imply.
    Apr 13, 2013. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Production At Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Mine [View article]
    As an update. I read an article which stated that BMO Capital Markets analyst Tony Robson said that on a provisional basis, he expects between 80,000 and 160,000 tonnes of copper could be lost this year, and production could be affected in 2014 and 2015 as well.

    So basically, lost production could total 50%-100% for 2013? This seems pretty significant given that Rio knew a slide was coming. A spokesman for the mine said today, "The mine itself is very large, and there are possibilities that we can begin starting portions of the mine, you know, within a few days, thus not interrupting the production of copper".

    That's a pretty wide range of production forecasts. Given that Rio was monitoring the wall fairly closely, I tend to err on the side of the mine spokesman - some production may be lost but I don't expect it to be too drastic.
    Apr 12, 2013. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment