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  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    My point was to highlight the juxtaposition between declining volumes and a low(ish) priced-in growth forecast, versus analysts' growth forecasts. My final opinion is that Apple will continue to innovate and release products that refresh their offerings and significantly add to margins (until competition crowds in).

    "So what are we to make of this conflicting news? The share price appears undervalued; however, product sales seem to be in a continual decline. Any valuation based on long-term growth forecasts in the tech sector is, by necessity, fraught with issues. So is our data wrong? The answer lies in a classic Apple market strategy."
    Aug 8, 2013. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    Apologies, meant to state product volumes (aside from iPhone) as I did earlier in the article. I'll see if I can change this.
    Aug 8, 2013. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    I understand the confusion, the graphic wasn't intended to compare two similar investment options. Rather, it was to highlight that as the U.S. economy and S&P have continued to recover, Apple has seen sharp declines. It's the nature of their business; products have a relatively short period of intense profitability before competitors crowd in. From there I noted that, due to this decline, the current share price seems to undervalue Apple's growth potential; a priced-in 7% 10-year growth rate versus an analyst consensus 13%+ (granted, the analyst consensus is for the 5-year time frame).

    I think we're probably closer in opinion than my article apparently let on. My intention was to highlight that Apple has the resources (both capital and intellectual) to continue their history of releasing innovative products that result in the aforementioned periods of high-profitability; and that I wouldn't bet against them doing so in the future.
    Aug 8, 2013. 03:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    Not trying to prophesize doom - just took the graphic directly from Apple's investor site which displays 1-year rolling numbers.

    I would agree that Apple has a fair chance at increasing back to $600. I did, after all, state that I wouldn't bet against them. Then again, the same can be said for any individual stock's growth potential relative to a portfolio of 500 stocks.
    Aug 8, 2013. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Comeback Or Speculation? [View article]
    Ever-thinning margins tend to be the name of the game in tech products as competitor products play catch up. The key is whether Apple can deliver a new product with high margins to repeat the cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see something interesting come out in the wearable tech area, as mentioned by Scott Trader. Will this be a game changing product? I have my doubts; however, as mentioned, I won't be betting against them.
    Aug 8, 2013. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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