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  • Don't Worry About United Rentals [View article]
    @whitehead1 That is a sound strategy. I have always believed that its best to "sell half on a double".

    The business URI is in is highly dependent on the business cycle that we are on. I believe we are getting out of a trough and in spite of small term setbacks in the economy, we are seeing growth accelerating domestically in the US (albeit slowly - but I'll take that anytime rather than having a recession or a depression). Rates are low and investor sentiment is still at record bearish levels (BofA Merill Lynch indicator is one metric that shows this). Energy story in the US is giving us exciting promises. If this slow take-off takes US to new heights, the likes of URI will continue to provide higher profits. Lets hope this goes to $50 or even $60 in 2013. Remember, URI depends on two things: Rental rates, and Utilization rates.....its not only the amount of construction activity. Always keep a watch on these two every quarterly earnings while you stick with URI.

    Happy investing!
    Dec 24, 2012. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsakos Energy: The $4 Stock With A 6% Dividend [View article]
    @Hohum Thanks for your comment. That is correct. The correction should appear soon.

    As far as financing arrangements is concerned, there is the risk but the company already has reserved employment of more than three years of each of its vessels, and all set to generate revenues. Risk/Reward is appealing in my opinion.
    Dec 21, 2012. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Intercontinental Exchange [View article]
    @harris2, You're welcome. I had bought at the IPO as well but had left the trade too soon. What's better is that the NYSE deal should add to the EPS estimates provided above.
    Dec 21, 2012. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About United Rentals [View article]
    @TwistTie, I hope you have held on to URI till now. I continue to hold URI and believe on a further upside above $50.

    I took a hiatus for a couple of months as I was working on other priorities and now am back in business.
    Dec 20, 2012. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
    @raulnj48 You're welcome. Glad you liked it.

    The thing with issues like fiscal cliff is that you never know how the market will really respond. If the U.S. jumps into the fiscal cliff, it is tough to say how bad things will turn out, but economic output will take a hit and recovery will slow down. To what extent, I don't know and I would not believe in anyone who says they know. And it is also likely that Wall Street does not like the term of the fiscal cliff agreement and the fiscal cliff rally either does not happen - stock market remains flat or worse, goes down in the short term. It is impossible to predict the exact outcome.

    Fiscal Cliff issue is the 800 lb gorilla in the room today. If you remember three months back, Europe was the issue. A little earlier, stocks that depended heavily on Chinese growth were pulling back because then China was the issue. If we keep going back to summer of 2011, lack of recovery, high unemployment and failure of monetary policies was the issue. Take a look at the S&P 500 chart from August 2011 to December 2011.

    My point is, there will always be some or many 800 lb gorillas in the room when you are dealing with the market.

    I have owned URI since 2011 when the stock traded at $14. This stock is a classic example of a stock that depends on economic recovery - it rents construction equipment. As it progressed from teens to twenties to thirties to forties, there were several 20-30% short term pull backs, but the stock is back towards its 52 week high. The IMPORTANT thing to remember is at what point of economic cycle is the market and the broader economy in, and what are the implications of an environment that has low interest rate, cheap energy and higher currency valuation, on the economy. Of course, this outlook works for longer term investors rather than traders.
    Dec 20, 2012. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
    @flow5 Sure the market has its seasonality. The mid quarters of the years get slower usually and certain sectors underperform. The "Sell In May And Go Away" theory has proved true many times, and if you take an average of S&P 500 performance for past 35-40 years, you will find September as the most underperforming month.

    That said, my take on 2013 does not mean that the market keeps going up each and every month. There are uncertainties all around as we get out of this hole we dug ourselves in. Europe setbacks, unpopular fiscal cliff decision or worse, lack of a fiscal cliff solution - all could prove short term setbacks for the recovery story.

    If you want to time the market - buy in September and sell in May - you may be successful, but remember that there are many stocks that do not follow this pattern, especially stocks that are closely tied to the stories around industry consolidation, economic expansion or even contraction, government regulations, international pressures (such as Europe mess or a Chinese slowdown) or even political instability in a region. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

    I do look at seasonality however and there are months when I am extra cautious and other months when my hands are itching to buy some stocks. But in the long run, fundamentals of the stock and the economy always tell the true story when you look at your experiences in hindsight.
    Dec 20, 2012. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
    @MikeSmooth Thanks for your comment. I agree that a resolution to the fiscal cliff might not be the end of uncertainty. One thing is never the crux of the problem. In the U.S. we have several today.

    However, my take is that irrespective of who would have been in power, the U.S. should take off thanks mainly due to the economic expansionary monetary policy complemented by the energy boom. The recovery might be in small steps, but recovery there will be.

    Unemployment is expected to drop to 6.5% in 2014 - looks really ambitious at this stage but it might happen. Check out some news about the boom in North Dakota and if you get time, please check out the links I have mentioned in the article. The energy boom is real and it is here to stay in the really long run. Cheap energy is usually a huge catalyst for economic activity.

    As I said above, the U.S. should gain from a stronger dollar along with manufacturing and construction activity gains, irrespective of who would have been the president, mainly due to the fundamentals of how economies and government policies take into effect. I don't like to take political sides on SA at least, but for once lets just say that GOP missed out on a very important election this year.
    Dec 20, 2012. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls Should Go Upward From Here [View article]
    I am aware of that investigation by the Faruqi firm. I dont think that issue will end up being a dealbreaker for JCI. $40 - ouch, but the good thing is you did not take a loss and at least there is a dividend. If the company is able to meet its 2013 forecast this stock should got to $35-$38 range. Have you considered 'renting' your stock by entering into covered calls?
    Dec 20, 2012. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Cummins Go? [View article]
    Cummins is finally closing in to the target price of $115, which now happens to be updated to north of $135 for next year.
    Dec 20, 2012. 02:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Rentals' 7% Jump - A Long Time Coming [View article]
    Here's an update after the 15% jump on 10/17:
    Oct 18, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About United Rentals [View article]
    @whitehad1 that was a good trade. URI is heavily dependent on industrial and construction activity, and around July 24, there was market panic around these sectors, which made me look for the next 'stop' - better to be safe than sorry. Nevertheless, a trade at $28 is good.

    Here is more information after yesterday's 15% jump:
    Oct 18, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 12 Reasons United Rentals Must Be On Your Summer Shopping List [View article]
    More about URI after the 15% jump on 10/17:
    Oct 18, 2012. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Rentals' 7% Jump - A Long Time Coming [View article]
    This was a no-brainer...the company assured in 2Q call itself about their improved pro forma outlook for 2012. No wonder 12% up today.
    Oct 17, 2012. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Rentals' 7% Jump - A Long Time Coming [View article]
    yep. Rental rates and outlook both good in today's earnings.
    Oct 16, 2012. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims Improved Or Only Delayed? [View article]
    I plan to sell sometime in mid-Q1 2013 depending on how high it goes. What I have seen lately is a volume drop on a daily basis - possibly the stock ran out of analysts' attention after underperformance.

    But Jan-March when the economy showed 200+ jobs monthly, Kelya was running high. Eventually this will happen, and this stock will see higher volumes and I am hoping for a 17-18$ price again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment