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  • Buy Coca-Cola To Knock Out Volatility In Your Portfolio [View article]
    $KO has appreciated 7.61% since this article on June 22. :) Happy Investing folks.
    Aug 6, 2012. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero To Benefit From Pipeline Projects [View article]
    Congratulations with all your gains @GWBJ. I am hopeful this article helped in the decision or at least gave assurance. Best wishes!
    Aug 6, 2012. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate: Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    Interesting insider activity on STX:
    (1) $1.2M of STX sold by David Richarz on 08/02/2012: http://bit.ly/OLHbJC

    (2) $14.7M of STX sold by Robert Whitmore on 08/02/2012:
    http://bit.ly/OLHaFE


    (3) $3.3M of STX sold by Frank Biondi between 08/02/2012 - 08/03/2012:
    http://bit.ly/RuQNgz

    (4) Insider Transaction: $STX Automatic Sale at $30.14 per share of 20000 shares by Officer Massaroni Kenneth M on 2012-08-01.

    Let's take a quick, high-level look at insider trading at Seagate Technology Plc over the past 12 months. A total of 7,964,596 shares of Seagate Technology Plc stock was sold by insiders, totaling $184,327,863. Over the same time 12 month time period, no shares of Seagate Technology Plc were purchased by company insiders.
    Source: Also, http://bit.ly/RuQNgz
    Aug 6, 2012. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate: Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    Best Wishes @jeanewight.
    Aug 6, 2012. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy VIX Calls When They Are Cheap [View article]
    @hahaha48. Thanks for your point. I should have mentioned this when discussing about the VXX - the warning to not hold for long term does not really explain why.

    I will submit a correction to add this to my warning about the VXX.
    Aug 6, 2012. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy VIX Calls When They Are Cheap [View article]
    @istrikegold, In layman's terms, these instruments are nothing but complex calculations (turned into a single Note price) done on the Volatility index, which in turn is a number derived from complex calculations done based on the options trading for the S&P500 index.

    Sometimes calculations tend to go awry from the base index performance, which is what happened to TVIX. Credit Suisse had to halt TVIX and that only caused more problems for investors.

    Read this from the prospectus:
    “The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero. If your ETNs are a long-term investment, it is likely that you will lose all or a substantial portion of your investment.”

    Such calculations depend on options activity on the S&P500 for the next two expirations i.e. two months. S&P 500 level of 1200 does not necessarily translate to VIX of 45. So chances are that you hold VIX for a long time with cost basis of 45, market re-bounces and VIX falls to 15, the next time market falls, it is very likely VIX would not touch 45 ever.

    P.S. I am considering a request to Seeking Alpha to highlight my warning of not holding VXX for the long term in bold red and maybe even upper case letters.
    Aug 6, 2012. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate: Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    @ciera_87 Thanks for your comment. The price jumps and the consolidation in the market space is what motivated me to write about STX in June. The advantage of consolidation was not only higher pricing but also increased sales due to increased market share and increasing demand. The game might not be over, but we do have a red flag staring at us, especially when Seagate says that the demand is softening and that its competitors are coming out of the floods earlier than they themselves anticipated. So both factors - demand and market share - have a threat now that wasn't apparent a month ago.

    Seagate might even be able to meet their year end revised expectations but that might not translate into stock price movement as a lot depends on the outlook - I guess we all will have to keep a close look on what numbers come out for industry unit shipments in Q3.

    I think the expectations were revised down from 175 million to around 160 million. I use IHS iSupply's reports but if you have better ways to track such numbers, do suggest.
    Aug 6, 2012. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy VIX Calls When They Are Cheap [View article]
    That is correct. VXX or any volatility tools are not supposed to be held for long. They are merely trading mechanisms that help hedge the portfolio in the short term. I have never bought VXX myself but that is because I do options, and most of the time I buy very near dated options and that too in the form of spreads.

    For the retail investor who does not have an options account or experience with options, VXX is a pretty good alternative. There are others like the UVXY etc. as well - all these ETNs and ETPs should have in their prospectus a disclaimer that states that over the long term, the product will tend to go to ZERO.

    One should never hold volatility for long.
    Aug 6, 2012. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy VIX Calls When They Are Cheap [View article]
    @backwardation, interesting name. How's Contango doing?
    Aug 6, 2012. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate: Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    @rmdonovan, there are no immediate threats for Seagate, and you may choose to hold for some time. As I said in the article, it could possibly go into the $32-35 range if market continues this rally. Investors heavy into this stock since the early twenties though have too much at risk and should rebalance.
    Aug 6, 2012. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate: Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    Thanks @jeanewight.
    Aug 6, 2012. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Seagate Technologies Could Bring You A Sea Of Profits [View article]
    Time to take profits on Seagate folks.

    http://bit.ly/STX-Seagate
    Aug 6, 2012. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The VIX As A Portfolio Strategy Tool [View article]
    @ns68, you can buy VIX options or even trade available ETNs (do not hold these ETNs for the long term). However the goal of this article is not to trade volatility but to use it to make equity related decisions. For example, selling uncovered puts comes with the risk of getting assigned - the case I mentioned is viewed as "opportunity" of getting assigned, and that is why it is very important that the stock in question is of excellent quality and long term prospects.
    Aug 5, 2012. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Panic In August [View article]
    Overall decent report about jobs added. Ah, URI and it's 5-10% swings (both ways)....really a naughty fellow in my portfolio since last year.
    Aug 3, 2012. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Panic In August [View article]
    Yes. I saw that update on July 25. It was interesting that their target price is $52 using a 10x multiple and as you stated, $5.22 EPS.
    Aug 1, 2012. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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