Comments on Colin Twiggs' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/colin-twiggs/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-236992 236992 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:45:44 -0400
Oil consumption in developing countries will drop more than in the US.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235881 235881 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:50:42 -0400
Greatest demand and highest prices are in the heating months and summer driving months: Dec thru Feb and May thru July.

August and September have generally had low oil prices, since the summer driving season is ebbing and heating demands are very low.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235781 235781 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:06:12 -0400
I'd also like to point out that although this article and the following comments may be true of oil, I think that coal is a different story.

jegan ;-) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235593 235593 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:24:31 -0400 With supply broadly static for the last 3 years (extraction has exceeded new discoveries for around 30 years) and rising demand in the exporters that will mean less available for export regardless of China and India.
Exports from other major areas like Mexico and Venezuela is collapsing already, and ramping up in other areas is by no means taking its place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235435 235435 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:08:45 -0400
Why can't CNBC also point out the obvious?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235417 235417 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 07:33:24 -0400
Where I find flaw in this China-Olympics theory is that the media makes it out to be that there are only two consumers in the world of crude: the U.S and China. Everyone says that this decrease in demand is thanks to the slow down in China to clean up the air before the Olympics. Did everyone forget that the rest of the world, including emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, and India, have NOT slowed down because of the Olympics? To add, China did not close down production countrywide, but only in Beijing and a few other small factory and port cities. Beijing is less than 2% (1.7% by my math in 2007) of China's GDP.

While the rest of the world (92% of energy consumption) continues to consume at its pre-Olympic pace, oil has fallen $35. Yet, CNBC won't stop talking about the impending hurricane of demand that will come from China. I disagree.

As I have already said, most of China is still consuming at its pre-Olympic pace too.

Let's do a little guestimation: China accounts for 8% of world oil consumption (1/3 as much as the U.S). Let's say that Beijing consumption has slowed 50% (it didn't). By limiting traffic, it is estimated that only 1/3 of the 3.3 million vehicles will stay off the road daily. Non-discretionary consumption should stay flat. So, 2% of 8% is 0.16% of world consumption, or approximately 138K barrels a day of consumptions. Going back to our 50% decrease in consumption number, Beijing purposely decreased its Beijing consumption by 69K barrels a day. There goes the ramping up thesis. 40 factories here and there don't significantly raise that number in the context of world supply.

My point is that China's actions have not significantly, or even marginally, cut demand. However, in the same time frame, Crude Oil has fallen from $148 to $113. To say that the slowdown in China is because of the Olympics is a canard. Furthermore, China has curtailed gasoline demand by raising prices 17% in late June and OPEC has increased supplies.

The Chinese tried very hard to piece together their country before the world arrived. It is arguable that the super spike we saw in oil was because China tried to complete in months what they should have built in years. Now, I will argue that progress (and consumption) will slow from here. Growth tends to slow post Olympics in host countries.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235404 235404 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 07:07:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79514-housing-affordability-proves-elusive?source=feed#comment-179409 179409 Wed, 04 Jun 2008 20:42:21 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79514-housing-affordability-proves-elusive?source=feed#comment-178850 178850 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 21:16:22 -0400
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]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79514-housing-affordability-proves-elusive?source=feed#comment-177610 177610 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 15:36:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79514-housing-affordability-proves-elusive?source=feed#comment-177273 177273 Sat, 31 May 2008 12:09:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79514-housing-affordability-proves-elusive?source=feed#comment-177218 177218 Sat, 31 May 2008 09:51:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-176725 176725 Fri, 30 May 2008 11:10:39 -0400
David Kotek from Cumberland Advisors in NJ. posted a newsletter where he gives the GOVERNMENTS THAT CONTROL MORE OIL THAN XOM.

They are not all in OPEC. OPEC is a monopoly that is part of the problem. I agree that consumption and lack of drilling in the US is also part of the problem.

And SPECULATION IN OIL FUTURES is also part of the problem.

Finally, if you don't want our economy to suffer from high oil prices, start somewhere to solve the problem. I did. I am buying less oil and gas and heating water with solar energy...and I did not buy an oil-related hedge fund, oil futures contracts or go long or short oil.

But I have invested in oil stocks and sold them all because I see a bubble burst coming.

I hope the speculators are put out of business by new laws.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-175724 175724 Thu, 29 May 2008 01:30:13 -0400
But, like I said, I do actually agree with you. A renewal of deep and abiding spirituality might raise the consciousness of Americans (and others) to a level where we live much more intentionally. As we do so I think it is plausible that the disease of rabid consumption will be tamed and we might realize that we really don't need to drive the Chevy Suburban back and forth to mall five times a week and we really don't want to eat chemically-laden fruit from Mexico and do in fact see the value of locally grown, organic produce (all of which would reduce our consumption of oil thus reducing price and simultaneously improve our health). My point is simply to say I think you are correct in seeing our current fiscal issues as being tied to spirituality, but God isn't a vending machine. God is, and most good theologians agree, the creative force by which we come into greater awareness which is what I think we need here. My guess is that you are intuiting toward this yourself; am I correct?

Best wishes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-175562 175562 Wed, 28 May 2008 18:22:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-175446 175446 Wed, 28 May 2008 15:30:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-175310 175310 Wed, 28 May 2008 12:39:06 -0400
Now the peak oil folks are saying, 'see, we told you so' (high gas prices, political turmoil), and the environmentalists are saying ,' see, we told you so ' (food shartage, storms, bad weather).

We need to keep cool heads at this point. First, there is evidence enough that the various political situations, including relative falling petroleum supply (i.e., we cannot just crank up oil supply to meet demand) coupled with a panicked rush to commodities due to the financial collapse and various derivative contracts, shorting, etc. are big factors in the energy issues.

Now, peak oil eventually may be real, and with half the world waking up and developing, we need to take the underlyiong theory seriously. I think $120+ barrel oil may end up saving us IF we act NOW to start developing alternatives. We need tax incentives, government sponsorship, as well as good old American ingenuity to kick in NOW.The $120/barrel oil creates the economic framework to make alternatives possible.

This is not the time to give up as some of the more liberal peak oil advocates imply we should. A wise Catholic Saint once said something like 'Know that God can do anything, but act as though He will do nothing'. Let's not forget there is a God, and He could be testing us, He could be punishing us. We do not know for sure. But do not give up. Turn back to some of our basic Christian values (and natural law in general), think about what we are doing and why, and let's roll up our sleeves to solve this issue- not just prepare for the end, and hide in the wilderness. It is not all criticism for the more liberal peak oilers- some of their ideas about reviving urban living are not all bad, and make sense certainly in the short to medium timeframe. Much of their criticisms of suburbia deserve some consideration.

Let's also not get all tied up with Gore gloom and doom over highly speculative theories about disasterous human induced CO2 warming of the planet. In fact we may be headed for a little ice age! Let's develop any energy source we can, and not let the environmentalists tell us (especially the U.S., China and India which have extensie coal reserves) that coal is out because of the CO2 problem. This is pure insanity at this juncture. If the peak oil problem is allowed to play out because of our inaction, you will see an environmental disaster of unimagineable proportions. Even the anti-Christian Malthusian Darwinists could not create a scenario so hororible (though God knows they keep trying).

Turn back to basic values, including. God, country and family, roll up your sleeves, do not give up, and let's work together (with the rest of the world) to solve the problems ahead of us.

siv0.com
TakeBackTheFed.com ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158996 158996 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 20:40:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158690 158690 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 12:16:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158381 158381 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 00:04:37 -0400 MZM has not increased to any significant degree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158306 158306 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 20:58:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158198 158198 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:06:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158195 158195 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:01:37 -0400
Even so, look at what's up the most -- cheese, eggs, beans and I'd guess chicken (haven't checked) -- exactly what poor people depend on. Don't expect much change until the agribiz lobby is pushed back on ethanol. Eventually (2 years? I'm optimistic) public pressure will have an effect. By then, lots more overseas deaths from hunger of course -- but that's not crucial for us, is it now.

I heard an "insider" on NPR a couple of days ago explaining that in the 70s a decision was made to back financials rather than industry, which is why it's financials that are bailed out. (One big exception was for an airline.)

Public has stood all this in the past, in prior recessions ( and esp stagflation (70s -- Nixon!!! froze price increases). Many other times where the prices have gone up hard for the poor, officially unnoticed. They keep changing the definitions so we can't tell -- for example, taking food and energy out of "core" inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-158043 158043 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:55:07 -0400 ..is... the lower US dollar means foreigners are finding American good a better deal, and they will be (and are) bidding up the prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-157989 157989 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:39:25 -0400
We believe that the standard market advice "sell in May and go away" should get serious consideration in May 2008. Over history, we see 9 month waves in stock market index price patterns which if applied in 2008 would indicate another low spot in October 2008.

We believe the USA stock markets are now going through the declining index price part of the standard business cycle. We expect that should end by October 2009.

We could be wrong and advise you to see your own advisers before making investment decisions.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-157987 157987 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:36:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-157950 157950 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 10:46:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-157940 157940 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 10:33:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74336-big-money-is-betting-on-inflation-not-the-economy?source=feed#comment-157792 157792 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 07:48:54 -0400
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72762-the-credit-crunch-is-far-from-over?source=feed#comment-153933 153933 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 08:26:20 -0400 NOBODY of these pros expected this kind of mess, not to speak of KNOWING it. Many of the young guys working at the IBs and driving around in their expensive cars HAVE ZERO CLUES about the economy, about the stock and credit markets. they have never ever witnessed a real crisis, they DO NOT KNOW fair valuations or rock-bottom valuations because they have mostly grown up in a bubble environment where everything only went up. And this applies to almost all assets. Did these golden-parachute-overpaid CEOs at C, Mer, BSC, etc. even have a remote understanding of risk? Or worse, DID THEY EVER REALLY BOTHER AT ALL? No, they didn't. Otherwise a lot of these deals and the business would have NEVER been done in the first place! So don't tell me the pros knew anything. some smart one imagined what could happen.
But nobody really knows how things will play out and how bad it may become before it gets really better.
@ johnnybigspenad and apppro: Do you have any understanding what leverage means, what a pyramide of leverage means and what deleveraging of that means? Trillions in perceived "assets" today do ONLY exist because excessive leverage brought them into being. But they are to a large extent just thin air that will go out along with the leverage. How bad the overall economy and everybody will be affected depends on the pace and the way of the deleveraging process. The slower and more "orderly" it can be done, the less harm will be inflicted. NOBODY can forecast how this will play out. It's unprecedented. So how shall the market have "priced it in" - when not one single market player really has a clue?]]>