Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Conrado Foglio Bonda  

View Conrado Foglio Bonda's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Don't Celebrate This Herbalife 1st-Quarter Earnings Beat Just Yet [View article]
    What?
    May 6, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inglorious 'Bastards' See Through Herbalife's Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    Just to support my POV, I posted this comment in October 2013.

    "Ackman may be right long-term, but he just doesn't have the funds to win a battle against the bulls. He got short squeezed with HLF because he went public and a smarter guy smelled his weakness. It doesn't matter if we are talking about HLF or not, the bullies just called his bluff and made him pay. That's why it really doesn't matter if he's right or not, he'll be insolvent before HLF's stock crashes (maybe not know that he has acknowledged that playing his bet by purchasing puts is smarter). Personally, I wouldn't invest in HLF, but not because of Ackman. I don't believe that the business model is sustainable long-term. There are better and cheaper health products out there. HLF is not consumer driven, it's distributor driven. It focuses on gaining new distributors instead of new customers. On top of that, it wouldn't be the first time that a company cooks its books, earnings, etc. I'm not saying that HLF is doing that, but with a flawed business model and suspiciously high margins, I wouldn't discard the possibility. However, I do wish good luck to those that are investors in this company. I wouldn't short it in a million years, but wouldn't invest in it as well."
    May 6, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inglorious 'Bastards' See Through Herbalife's Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    Conrado, not cornado. Mistaken about what? I've always said that investors should be careful shorting HLF. I said countless times that I wouldn't touch Herbalife in a million years (neither long nor short). Markets can remain irrational for years, and I have better ways to employ capital. Herbalife remains a fragile investment, but that doesn't mean the stock won't surge from time to time.

    Unrealized what? No sell, no gain.
    May 6, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics - Insiders And Institutional Investors Are Buying This Offshore Driller [View article]
    Thank you. Last purchase @ $29 in December 2014.

    Jonathan is right when he says there's been a lot of option exercising in Q1 (executive compensation).
    May 6, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Celebrate This Herbalife 1st-Quarter Earnings Beat Just Yet [View article]
    There's sufficient evidence that particular supplements work, but it depends on your goals, as the author stated above. Two examples are Creatine and Whey Protein. There's abundant research on these two supplements, for instance...
    May 6, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics - Insiders And Institutional Investors Are Buying This Offshore Driller [View article]
    There's a chart from M* that I included in the article. Purchases in Green, most of them concentrated in Nov and Dec, 2014. Plus institutions in Q12015. I didn't count option exercises, for the reasons that you mention (executive compensation).
    For example.... The CEO purchased $ 150,000 worth of stock on December 22nd, 2014.
    http://bit.ly/1H1guzr
    May 6, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inglorious 'Bastards' See Through Herbalife's Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    I wrote that comment on March 23rd. How am I backtracking? Did you read my comment?
    May 6, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics - Insiders And Institutional Investors Are Buying This Offshore Driller [View article]
    [especially when the author has a financial interest in the stock]
    That's what disclaimers are for.

    [and plenty of selling since then]
    Not true. A couple of shares here and there doesn't constitute plenty.

    [use false or misleading headlines]
    How is it misleading if I included sources from M* and the 10-Q? I didn't say the purchases were made in April. Quantitative Mgmt, for instance, increased their ownership by 400% in March, and you can check it in their SEC filings or at M*. Maybe you should do you own due diligence before bashing contributors.

    When I first read your comments I was quite annoyed, you are extremely hostile and disrespectful. But then I went through your comment history and I see that's how you choose to interact with everyone. Good luck with that.
    May 6, 2015. 11:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics - Insiders And Institutional Investors Are Buying This Offshore Driller [View article]
    Thanks
    May 6, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inglorious 'Bastards' See Through Herbalife's Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    I'm going to share a comment that I wrote in another thread, on March 23rd...

    "Shorting HLF is madness, especially for the retail investor. I personally dislike Herbalife's business model and how distributors handle business practices (recruiting more than selling and so on). But, the company has been around for more than 30 years and there's no reason it won't be alive for another 30. Even shorts understand that there's an almost endless pool of potential recruits. Nevertheless, I would never touch this stock as it is far away from what I consider to be a valuable enterprise. As Lord Keynes once said:" Markets can remain irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent". The short thesis may be right, but unless you've got unlimited funds, this is pure gambling... A coin toss... Leave these games for the big fishes."
    May 6, 2015. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Celebrate This Herbalife 1st-Quarter Earnings Beat Just Yet [View article]
    He wrote 1 year, not YTD. And he's right. As of right now, S&P +12% and HLF about -22% accounting for today's surge of +16%.
    May 6, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Top Distributors Hold Warehouses Full Of Product In Mexico - Why? [View article]
    Don't take it so personal, it's just my opinion. I just don't think it's worth the risk to invest in companies with negative book value and declining sales. It will be great for Herbalife if they can get to $ 440M of FCF. However FCF doesn't account for financing activities, and I think you need to account for that. HLF added just $70M to its cash position this quarter. Also you can see in their balance sheet that they are cutting CapEx and hoarding cash. The convenants on the credit facility will also constraint them in the near future. As I said before, I think that this stock is risky due to fragile fundamentals, but shorting is not recommended for the risk of short squeezing.
    May 6, 2015. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife beats by $0.28, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Cash down 500M YoY. But that's because they bought stock last year.
    May 5, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Herbalife's Bankers? [View article]
    Well, we don't know what the inquiries were about. I just thought it would be interesting to share it, since it has gone unnoticed, apparently.
    May 5, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Herbalife's Bankers? [View article]
    I'm reading the 10-Q and apparently the results were better than expected. China performed exceptionally well with 21% growth yoy, while other markets performed poorly, especially South and Central America. The following disclosure caught my eye though...

    "The Department of Justice recently sought information from the Company, certain of its Members and others regarding allegations being made about the business practices of the Company and its Members. In the future, these and other governmental authorities may determine to seek information from the Company and other persons relating to these same or other allegations. If the Company believes any governmental or regulatory inquiry or investigation is or becomes material it will be disclosed individually. Consistent with its policies, the Company has cooperated and will continue to fully cooperate with any governmental or regulatory inquiries or investigations. "
    May 5, 2015. 08:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
362 Comments
662 Likes