The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video) [View news story]
That 7% global aluminum growth forecast for 2012 is unchanged from their January outlook.
Where in the disclosure section does it say I sold all my TOL holdings? Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Careful not to read too much into one month's data FH. The new home sale "trough in Oct 2010" (@$195k) was abnormal, resulting from more sales in the high priced Northeast. Nov and Dec 10 (of $216k and $242k) show it bounces around. Also your existing "unit sales up an impressive 30%" is based on July 10's crazy low rate of 3.8m, down 32% from May 10's 5.7m. Finally, the existing home price ($164k) "up $8k from Feb 11 low" (of $156k) could be put in context with June, July '10 (of $183 each) or Dec 10, Mar 11 ($169k, $160k).
There's no real competitive advantage ARKR offers, in a very tough industry. Nice balance sheet and dividend, etc, but real, sustainable growth is non-existent. While Mr. Weinstein, in his late 60's, could look to sell the company, there's little reason for a financial, let alone strategic buyer, to pay much more than the 7 - 8x EBITDA it trades.
I'm positive on SPF too, though the quarter was about in line. Most importantly in the qtr. they took care of their borrowing needs for a while. Still heavily dependent on CA, which remains weak, but offsetting that with growth in TX, which is solid and has much easier permitting process (ie., faster inventory turns, less balance sheet risk).
Just One Stock: Unloved Shares with Hidden Values on Balance Sheet? Yahoo! [View article]
Hi Adam, Refreshing to read something positive about Yahoo. It seems though that most of the potential upside would be in the fast growing Chinese internet businesses within Alibaba. A direct investment in ALBCF might work better, unless you think the core YHOO businesses (search and portal) will no longer act as a drag. Do you think YHOO core can materially increase sales before time runs out on Bartz - over the next year, say? Thank you, Consumer Contrarian
A Return to Growth at Cheesecake Factory [View article]
My assumptions are around recent guidance, ex comp sales of 3.8% in 2011 (vs their 1.5-3%). I think pricing will stick but their outlook seems to say it won't - conservatively. Recall after Q1, they guided to 0-1% comps for 2010, vs today's reality of 2.5%. You're right the stock falls if they don't do better than they say, but obviously I think they will.
A Return to Growth at Cheesecake Factory [View article]
I hear you JG on the locations but doesn't have to be on the lake in Chicago; Skokie and Schaumburg are doing fine. Have assumed some inflation, but think there's risk to the upside in COS, given what others, like MCD are saying (deflation of 3-4%). Finally, seems retail trends, especially high end, are surprising to the upside. Thanks for commenting.
Cruise Lines, Travel Websites Herald a Rallying Economy [View article]
I like the cruise stocks too but not because they bring huge taxes, revenues or jobs to the US - because they don't.
Carnival Corp will earn $2 billion net profit this year, more than the total for the entire US lodging industry. In US income tax they'll pay no more than $20 million.
...$17.15 billion to U.S. ports... By way of comparison, Carnival and Royal, which dominate the US cruise market, had ticket revenue of ~$14 bn in '09, with a fair portion from non US sailings. Cruise ships spend relatively little time in US ports, hence the tax breaks mentioned above, so could you explain the $17 billion?
...314,000 jobs, contributing $14.23 billion in salaries and wages to the U.S. economy... The US cruise shipbuilding industry is actually tiny. Nearly all of today's ships are built in Europe, especially Scandinavia, Germany and Italy. The world's largest cruise ship that you mention (Oasis of the Seas, along with its sister ship Allure of the Seas) was built in Finland by STX, a Korean company.
Homebuilding Outlook, Part I: Home Prices Through 2011 [View article]
JG, My forecast for 2010 home prices is based on 3/4's of the year already in the books, along with the most recently published new home orders. As I state in the title this note focuses on home prices, not commodities, margins, profits, legal risks, valuations...
Homebuilding Outlook, Part I: Home Prices Through 2011 [View article]
The census bureau, which provides the monthly absolute price data, shows price per square foot fell ~8.5% from 2006 and 2009, or about the same rate as overall SF price. (They only have annual data on this metric.) If you have other data sources please share them.
The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video) [View news story]
3 All Weather Builders to Buy [View article]
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Homebuilding Recovery? Not Yet [View article]
Sell Cracker Barrel Ahead of Expected Weak Quarterly Results [View article]
Buy Marcus Corp. Near Book Value [View article]
Ranking the Restaurant Stocks [View article]
Homebuilding Outlook: Improved Balance Sheets [View article]
Just One Stock: Unloved Shares with Hidden Values on Balance Sheet? Yahoo! [View article]
Refreshing to read something positive about Yahoo. It seems though that most of the potential upside would be in the fast growing Chinese internet businesses within Alibaba. A direct investment in ALBCF might work better, unless you think the core YHOO businesses (search and portal) will no longer act as a drag. Do you think YHOO core can materially increase sales before time runs out on Bartz - over the next year, say?
Thank you, Consumer Contrarian
Lowe's Is Good but Home Depot Is Better [View article]
A Return to Growth at Cheesecake Factory [View article]
A Return to Growth at Cheesecake Factory [View article]
Have assumed some inflation, but think there's risk to the upside in COS, given what others, like MCD are saying (deflation of 3-4%). Finally, seems retail trends, especially high end, are surprising to the upside. Thanks for commenting.
Cruise Lines, Travel Websites Herald a Rallying Economy [View article]
Carnival Corp will earn $2 billion net profit this year, more than the total for the entire US lodging industry. In US income tax they'll pay no more than $20 million.
...$17.15 billion to U.S. ports...
By way of comparison, Carnival and Royal, which dominate the US cruise market, had ticket revenue of ~$14 bn in '09, with a fair portion from non US sailings. Cruise ships spend relatively little time in US ports, hence the tax breaks mentioned above, so could you explain the $17 billion?
...314,000 jobs, contributing $14.23 billion in salaries and wages to the U.S. economy...
The US cruise shipbuilding industry is actually tiny. Nearly all of today's ships are built in Europe, especially Scandinavia, Germany and Italy. The world's largest cruise ship that you mention (Oasis of the Seas, along with its sister ship Allure of the Seas) was built in Finland by STX, a Korean company.
Homebuilding Outlook, Part I: Home Prices Through 2011 [View article]
As I state in the title this note focuses on home prices, not commodities, margins, profits, legal risks, valuations...
It's Heating Up at Buffalo Wild Wings [View article]
Homebuilding Outlook, Part I: Home Prices Through 2011 [View article]