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  • What Happens If Stocks Crash? [View article]
    The price recovery in housing has largely been driven by constrained supply. That said, household formation is increasing faster than most are realizing as unemployment has dropped, and negative equity is rapidly evaporating.
    Jun 1, 2013. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If Stocks Crash? [View article]
    I'm in total agreement with you. We generally don't have realistic expectations of those who we elect. When a friend of your's says something you disagree with, you argue about for a bit and get over it. When a politician says something you feel is off-base, it's horrifying.

    I agree with you regarding Japan, but I don't foresee an outright collapse of the Japanese government bond market, nor do I see the Yen falling into oblivion.
    Jun 1, 2013. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If Stocks Crash? [View article]
    Buffett and Gates owned silver due to their perception of a coming supply shortage - it had nothing to do it being "a store of value."

    It also has nothing to do with "doing pretty well," it's all about opportunity costs and relative performance. If you bought the S&P in 1973 at about 100, you're up 1,530%. Your dad's up 341%.

    You bought coke in the midst of one of the most overvalued markets we've ever seen - price to value matters.
    Jun 1, 2013. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Let The Fed Scare You Out Of Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Tim,

    Well said. I recently wrote that while we may see a dip in a lot of these names, there's no reason to panic whatsoever. I do think some of the equity gains have been pulled forward, but the total yields on these guys aren't bad at all.

    The utilities are a bit of a different story. 17-20X earnings with 3-4% EPS growth isn't too attractive.

    Good article.
    May 31, 2013. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Yes, as a matter of fact I have. I got pretty interested in it a couple years ago so I ran some independent calculations.

    Try it out for yourself. Use prices of cars, food, houses etc. BLS data starts to look pretty close.
    May 31, 2013. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    We can argue about the central planning tid-bit, but I won't argue about inflation data - that's all I'm saying.
    May 31, 2013. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Hah that's great. That's an interesting point about the shift in thinking under this administration.
    May 30, 2013. 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Oh I see. So this cute little anecdote confirms that the Fed is lying, the BLS is lying, and nearly every economist in the country is lying.

    Listen: there's no conspiracy. If you knew a few economists, maybe you'd see that too. These guys have advanced degrees in this stuff, and are doing the best they can to figure out what's going on.

    I'm not going to convince you that there's a ton of opportunity out there and that this country is doing better than ever. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic and excited about the future, and it's a hell of a better way to live your life than it is to worry about manipulation, conspiracies, hyperinflation and whatever nonsense.
    May 30, 2013. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Forget it. You seem to have more insight on inflation then the Fed. I can't argue with that.

    Seriously though, it's so unbelievably illogical to produce your own inflation numbers.
    May 30, 2013. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Btw, you can also rent a house out, thus producing cash flows.

    "Then, what you saying, country with the most expensive housing must be the most productive?"

    ^^ When the heck did I say that?

    You raise taxes when the economy can handle it; we're getting closer to that point. And we don't have inflation right now. It's running sub 2%.
    May 30, 2013. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Didn't mean that as an insult at all, if anything I find it strange that you took it as one. I'm young, they seem old; these are facts.

    Never claimed to know it all, but doomsdayers who do a public disservice by trying to convince the world things are as bad as they see them...talk about a dime a dozen.

    Apologies that you took that as an insult. Times are changing.
    May 30, 2013. 07:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Seriously? You buy a house to live in it. There's an actual need for shelter. Analogy = crushed.

    Solutions are being implemented. We've raised some taxes, cut some spending, and I guarantee we see the retirement age go to 67 soon.

    Gov. spending is not a tax, it's literally the opposite - it's a stimulus. When you spend more than you take in, it's stimulus.
    May 30, 2013. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Inch Up: Be Careful With Widely Held, Richly Valued Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Rich,

    Excellent comment. Indeed, while the book values of the mREITs will decline in value, the dividend yields should remain stable.

    We can be pretty sure that short-term rates (where these names pay costs on the repo rates) will remain very low, but the longer-dated yields should rise.

    Let me see if I can get that fixed.
    May 30, 2013. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Inch Up: Be Careful With Widely Held, Richly Valued Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Great quote. I'm actually doing some work on PRU right now. Huge spike in the stock recently, but it looks interesting at 80% of book. Life insurance has been a tough business however.

    Should have a piece up on PRU and the rest of the insurers within the next few days. Thanks.
    May 30, 2013. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    I'm very glad I didn't stick to that analysis. When gold failed to break $1,800 for the third time in a couple years in the context of open-ended QE, it became clear the market was exhausted.

    Tech trading 101.
    May 30, 2013. 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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