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  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    This is a perfect example of the flawed economic framework that plagues gold bulls.

    Look, the reality is that the "triggering event" you're so worried about is highly unlikely. You're suffering from recency bias and ignoring what has gone on behind the scenes.

    Even in Europe, where things are a mess, the vast majority of toxic assets have been slowly written down and transfered to public balance sheets, where they're not subject to margin calls.

    Things are pretty good, it's time to see it.
    May 30 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Inch Up: Be Careful With Widely Held, Richly Valued Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Thanks, Thomas.

    I wanted to be careful with the conclusion - I'm not trying to scare any meticulous dividend investors, there's certainly no reason to panic. However, based on valuations and recent price action, these stocks look like they're headed back to their historical norms.
    May 30 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    Totally agree. I think the inflection point is definitely upon us, it's just been so damn difficult to call.
    May 27 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Up A Quick 40%: Substantial Upside Remains, But Is Speculative [View article]
    Over $4 billion in OCF ($2 in FCF), $2 billion on the books, and access to cheap capital. I think they'll at least be close by YE14.
    May 27 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Up A Quick 40%: Substantial Upside Remains, But Is Speculative [View article]
    Much appreciated. I honestly need to look more into WDC.

    My guess is that Chanos isn't actually short, but the analysis he presented certainly did seem misguided.
    May 27 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Breaks Out: Remains 40-60% Undervalued [View article]
    Sounds like you've actually got a broad understanding of the fundamentals. I think that's a great summary.
    May 27 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Breaks Out: Remains 40-60% Undervalued [View article]
    I don't mean this to be harsh (I made the same mistake when I first started out), but that's a brutal error you're making there.

    The debt you're referring to is the same kind of debt that any financial institution has - it's not actually debt. They've got net cash of about $8.2 billion.
    May 27 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Breaks Out: Remains 40-60% Undervalued [View article]
    I can check, but I believe they attributed the net cash decline to an increase in production. Good point on the discount rate.
    May 26 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    Interesting. The long bond has had a bad May, presumably due to tapering concerns. I agree a strong payroll report would likely reinforce those worries, as the Fed appears to be more focused on data rather than capital markets.

    That being said, yields have technical resistance around this level on the charts; 2% seems to be level that's drawn some capital in to take advantage of the relatively "high" yields.

    Now, if we really are at a turning point, treasuries will lose support and stocks will finally correct. Based on what you're saying, sounds like you think we're at that point. I'm not so sure yet - going to have to see the price action this week.

    Very interesting stuff, sounds like you've been positioned nicely all year.
    May 26 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    Alan,

    Excellent analysis, and great technical point regarding the outside reversal.

    Instead of buying puts or going short, I've been adding treasuries. There's a positive carry there and they've done well all year on any sort of market weakness.

    I think the bond market will recognize that equity weakness will keep policy accommodative and treasuries will do nicely.
    May 26 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Revisited: 20% Upside With Natural Gas At $4, But Little Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Those figures don't have a whole lot relevance. Look ahead.
    May 22 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Revisited: 20% Upside With Natural Gas At $4, But Little Margin Of Safety [View article]
    That's simply not accurate.

    Start here: http://bit.ly/1a487Og
    May 22 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Revisited: 20% Upside With Natural Gas At $4, But Little Margin Of Safety [View article]
    I'm not really sure how else to phrase it...the seismic technology that is used to discover likely hydrocarbon formations has evolved significantly with the arrival of wireless seismic systems.
    May 22 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Revisited: 20% Upside With Natural Gas At $4, But Little Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Bro, are you McClendon?
    May 21 11:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
    Chris,

    Indeed, the liabilities are expressed as a NPV. My quote was supposed to be for illustrative purposes - to show how silly it is to project 75 years out into the future.

    These are promises based on current policy. We all know our taxes will have to rise a bit and benefits be scaled back (modest increase in the retirement age) - doing so has a huge effect on a 75 year projection.
    May 5 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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