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  • How David Einhorn Shorts Stocks [View article]
    Investors in Greenlight Capital would, to say the least, disagree with your horrendously ignorant statement.
    Jul 11 05:35 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Bulls Need To Temper Their Emotions [View article]
    This is an awful characterization of personalities, to say the least.

    Both sides have plenty of good intellectual conversations, but thesis for being a mega gold bull (i.e. expectations of an overnight collapse in the dollar will lead to $10,000 gold) is hysterical in and of itself.

    Was I being hysterical? Malicious? I said it's not in a bubble, and explained why elevated gold prices are likely to persist. I also support the idea of holding *physical* gold as a portion of your portfolio.

    I am not sure if you were directing this at myself, but it certainly doesn't add much to an intelligent discussion.
    Aug 8 03:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Well, if we're just going to throw every piece of analysis to the wind and term it "a wild guess," then what the hell are we doing on SA? All long-term analysis is based on assumptions - get used to it.

    I've been short since $1,720, and thoroughly enjoyed the ride down. Of course, I may or may not be right going forward, but I think I've got a good grasp on what's driving the precious metals right now.

    You should learn the "squiggles." Might help.
    May 30 02:11 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Bulls Need To Temper Their Emotions [View article]
    It wasn't in response to the comment. The comment was the example off which I based my thesis that some gold bulls need to be a bit more practical.

    Gold is not in a bubble. There is a fundamental and well-reasoned case for investing in gold.

    What will not happen is $10,000 gold in the next few years.

    The inability for many of the commenters here to recognize the tone of my article actually supports the ownership of gold enhances my case that many bulls are in fact too emotional.
    Aug 8 03:15 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013: The End Of Gold's 12-Year Winning Streak [View article]
    Think about those numbers for a second. Really.

    You think 1/4th of the population is unemployed? Have you visited a hotel, taken a plane, eaten at restaurant? Those numbers are indicative of a depression; I certainly don't see one when I leave my house.
    Jan 6 08:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Europe Could Crumble On Sept. 12th [View article]

    If what you are saying is that France's yields are far too low, I completely agree.
    Jul 21 09:40 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Rush Into Markets That Look Like This One [View article]
    1) Please stop calling me William in every single one of your comments. If my name was William, there would be an apostrophe before the S.

    2) Congratulations on your ability to "time the market." That sure is impressive considering the well described downfalls of attempting to do so. Market timing absolutely does not work in the long term, and is the worst way to give yourself long term investment success.

    3) If you are still confident about the market, yeah, buy your favorite stocks on dips. The title says it all: Don't rush into it and blow out your safety net.

    4) Of course I own stock. How did you come to the conclusion that I don't any stocks? Because of my disclosure in this article? I didn't mention any stocks, therefore I don't have a disclosure.

    5) Up to this point I have largely ignored your comments as they've been pretty incomprehensible, and have made very strange assumptions about me or my investing activities. This certainly is no different, but it was too much to ignore.

    I appreciate constructive criticism on my articles as there are a lot of incredibly bright people on this website. I'll end with that.
    Aug 6 01:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    Inflation was absolutely not zero when the dollar was backed by gold. You're begging the question - you're using the premise that gold is money to say that since gold prices didn't go up, there was no inflation.
    Apr 3 06:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    There is no global currency war. This is the exact kind of fear based analysis that I'm talking about. Ok, so the BOJ has talked the yen down - are any other nations freaking out?
    Apr 3 06:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
    "Furthermore, the reward risk/ratio for equities is extremely low on a 12-month basis."


    As usual, you did an excellent job of pointing out a key current market concept. Investors need to take a step back and look at the major indicies. Your recommendation of 100% cash would have been inappropriate after a period of incredible selling (Early '09), but is spot-on at a time like this.

    Sure, the market could head a bit higher for one reason or another, but what is the next catalyst to make the risk/benefit profile tilt in an investors favor? The only "positive" is anemic growth in developed economies, with rapidly declining growth in once-booming ones, i.e. China and India.

    Additionally, your thoughts on Gold are quite frankly refreshing. Not because I particularly disagree with the Gold-bug crowd, but because you offer a middle-ground based upon legitimate evidence. However, while I agree that relative to other currencies the USD has a good chance of ascending in value, this is only per the exchange rate. As a monetarist, I believe that there is an overwhelming supply of dollars that will diminish our purchasing power once they begin to cycle through the economy. Of course, this won't happen until our structural issues are solved and the economy (particularly lending) rebounds in a healthy manner, but it's a long-term worry.

    We have been seeing Gold sell-off HARD as the dollar has strengthened, particularly against the Euro. I believe it is possible that the dollar's relative strength (as per the exchange rate) will continue to take the value of gold down, along with legitimate commodities like food and oil (assuming Iran stays calm).

    At these levels, there doesn't appear to be a significant "margin of safety" when purchasing more gold. As you mention, there is the chance that some speculation keeps Gold strong for the next couple of years, but just like equities and bonds, the risk/reward profile is pretty weak.

    I myself own some physical, and a couple of financially-impenetrable, undervalued small-cap stocks (long-term holds), but the majority of my exposure is short equities. As I wrote in my latest piece, investment banks and high P/E issues with anything other than fantastic business models are good shorts.

    Great piece.
    Dec 21 02:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    Based on your profiles you guys seem pretty old, so allow me to let you in on a little secret: being optimistic and entrepreneurial will always be better than being worried about the future. Hoarding gold doesn't contribute a whole lot to society. Unfortunately, it takes a great deal to convince pessimists that the "status quo" never remains and civilizations usually find ways to deal with their problems.

    @Resucant: your statement isn't nearly sufficient to convince me otherwise. Let me guess: Europe is in trouble, Japan is about to blow up, and China is slowing down. I know.

    @flemsnopes: Listen, at least try to see it from my side. We are running a deficit at 3-4% of GDP - as I said above, we can easily run a 2-3% annual deficit. We're pretty close. The debt burden isn't really an issue. As to this mythical triggering event you keep speaking of, what do you know about the future that everyone else doesn't?

    There is always the risk of a catastrophic event. Always. Very rarely do they occur in the aftermath of a once in 80-year event.

    Kicking the can is a good thing. You deal with problems when you have the resources to deal with them. Businesses do it all the time, thank goodness we have a government that has delayed mass spending cuts until we're at long-term growth averages.

    I've seen things from your side too. Check my articles from 2011 - same BS you guys are spewing: short this, short that, bankruptcy etc.

    Hell, even Greece is doing better. Perk up.
    May 30 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    Yikes. So I think one of the biggest tells is the rudeness and general lack of articulate arguments from the bull camp. For sure, some major investors have made reasonable, modest arguments, but comments like this are the norm.

    Price action around levels of long term support reflect further downside based on the additional dynamics I've discussed. Thanks.
    Apr 3 07:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Is Triggered Again [View article]
    No, they're not down 219 points - that's from last Friday's close. Currently up 15.
    Jun 2 06:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    You've said that on a few of my articles, one of which was written at $1,710/oz. Just sayin.'
    Apr 3 10:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    Been short since ~$1,710. Thanks.
    Apr 3 10:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment