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Corey Sommers

 
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  • BlackBerry launches $449 Classic; reviews mixed [View news story]
    The problem, Eric, is that your piece characterizes reviews as "mixed" when in reality reviews have been on balance positive. Anyone can cherry pick negative reviews to create this "mixed" myth, which is what Apple and Android supporters want to do right now, given the real possibility of BlackBerry's resurgence. I'm just curious, what kind of phone do you use?
    Dec 17, 2014. 02:22 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chen: Chinese acquisition of BlackBerry would be blocked [View news story]
    No coincidence stock was moving up nicely and this got re-manufactured. Wow.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:31 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    We are right at the EMA (50) and still above the SMA (50). But yes, the MACD shows a negative divergence and there is a bearish crossover. The RSI has room to fall also. So sure, there could be a bit of downside from here. But if tech analysis was all there was to it, everyone would be rich (actually there wouldn't be a market). Just as easily, there could be news at any time that could drive this way up. Given the number of shares short, I'd rather be a long with 50 cents of downside than a short with $3 bucks of downside (on the upside) that will kick in with even a modest short squeeze.
    Dec 1, 2014. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    If you aren't short what is your goal on this board? If you are indeed not short than my statement doesn't apply to you. Sorry to have offended you.

    Just to give you some perspective on where I'm coming from; I've never been able to put myself in the shoes of someone shorting a turnaround story like BlackBerry. Here you have a company on the ropes trying to come back from years of mismanagement, hubris, and poor decisions. The employees are good, hard-working people. When folks take pleasure in seeing BBRY fail it just doesn't compute. There are a bunch of bubble-priced tech stocks that would seem to me better short targets, and when their stock falls it won't mean layoffs or the breakup or fire sale of the company.
    Dec 1, 2014. 10:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    If you like Apple at PE of 18 you should probably like BBRY at P/S of 1. :-)
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    AKO, what makes you think that devices will go down, especially with new models being rolled out to good reviews and statements of good sales from company? This is not Thorsten era where comments are thrown around without any consequence.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    "Anyone can figure out BBRY built the most expensive paperweight. Are u going to wait for JC to sat it? not hard to figure out BBRY has no advantage and clearly disadvantaged."

    I have no idea what you are talking about.

    "Once it was 499, no one pays 599 again. That is what $400 less than note 4 or I6. no brand is no pricing power. BBRY clearly has no pricing power."

    Take a look at the iPhone 6 plus reviews on Amazon, the primary reason it is getting slammed is the high price for cheap construction. That's pricing power for you.

    "ATT don't give a crap about the passport as it is sold in exactly 0 stores and not available online. That is epitome or no carrier support."

    Uh SFI - news flash - AT&T has not yet launched the phone. What part of that do you not get?

    "BB10 devices are basically sold at the clearance bin and the price reflects it."

    Apple 5C is sold for below fire sale. Try 97 cents at Wallmart (http://cnet.co/1txc4VL)

    "The basics of a GAAP writeoff is the write-off takes the value of inventory to 0 gross margins. GAAP concept recognize a loss when it is probable and measurable. A written off inventory has no margins as the losses are picked up last Q4. That's basic GAAP concepts."

    This whole argument about those sales not being recognizable is a red herring. Why? Because they sold the same models last quarter and recognized plenty of revenue from them.

    "The gross margins is tbd. but damn if it does not take money to support the sales. selling cost, development and overhead. The devices do not build or sell itself."

    Uh, I could say that about any business. But I know Apple spends far more on selling its phones (per phone) than BBRY does.

    "It was launched more deeply in Q2 than Q1. Revenue went down in SE asia, z3 country. Z3 does not slow down revenue slide."

    You don't know all the factors that went into that decline. If India is any indication sales of older models (Z30 and Q5) went way up from Q2 to Q3.
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    I can't for the life of me figure out why you think $944M is not doable. They did $421M in hardware last quarter. That was without Passport or full contribution of Z3. I see AT LEAST $150M of Passport revenue (and that's if they only sell 300k in the quarter, which I believe is conservative) and 500,000 Z3s sold globally, up perhaps 50% from Q2 (so an increase of around $50M in revenue). SAF will decline around $70M. So that's $130M (albeit lower margin) in incremental rev, getting them well north of $1B. Let's say some of the Passport rev cannibalized existing model revenue, so we'll discount it to $100M, to be conservative. You still are plus $80M against last quarter, almost $1B. So you will need to argue that handsets (other than Passport and Z3) went way down. But the data doesn't suggest that. What data or other evidence are you pointing to in order to argue handsets will reverse the upswing they saw in q2? I also think EPS will beat with the IP cost reduction. Chen didn't have full visibility into how well Passport or Z3 would do, so of course he is going to be conservative. Just because he said it "might" not be the bottom, doesn't mean revs will definitely go down. Handsets would need to crap the bed completely for that to happen. But as I pointed out, in places like India Z3 went from 600 in q2 to 4,000 in q3. Same with Q5 (2x).

    If you are going to throw around $900M please be specific and tell me (us all) where the decrease will come from.

    BTW I'm using a very conservative $500 revenue per Passport figure. The typical markup is only 8-10%, and the phone is retailing for much more than $500 in many locations. So you are talking closer to $550-$600 USD in revenue, especially in Canada and Asia. But let's leave the number alone just so you can see I'm trying to be conservative.
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    What are you other favorite shorts? Just curious.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    Yup, Gonzalo is an SA contributor and strong BBRY proponent.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    You know that's not the case for me KIA as I am long Apple. There are a subset of BBRY longs on SA who are very anti-Apple, and personally I think the anti-Apple diatribe is not productive to the discourse, and they should modulate the tone. I hope for nobody's and no company's failure, why are you putting words in my mouth you know not to be true?
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    Really? Or is it that this pisses you off so much you lose all sense of rational thought and reflexively hit the sell button because you hate it when people take pot shots at anything to do with Apple? :-)
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    Which further confirms my point. News has only gotten better with new revenue streams for software and Samsung partnership, etc. For them to change now is counter-intuitive.
    Dec 1, 2014. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    Perhaps, and then their shock grows as they witness the grace and beauty of BB10 compared to their OS.
    Dec 1, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    That's what I love about you Andreas. Always adding such substantive commentary to the dialogue. :-)
    Dec 1, 2014. 05:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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