Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Cornelius Downs  

View Cornelius Downs' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Solar Stocks Are Not Necessarily Green [View article]
    Regarding LDK, there are an enormous number of facilities around the world which handle hazardous, potentially explosive chemicals. China is not a newcomer to this problem. You refer to "rumors" which are likely planted by the LDK short interest (which is large and not terribly intelligent) across the internet. As a long-time holder of LDK, I would be as happy as anyone to see proof that such danger exists (to an unreasonably large extent) at the LDK manufacturing facilities, but I seriously doubt that it does. You don't give Xiaofeng Peng and company enough credit; they are not a careless bunch. And even if such an explosion were to occur, there is no possibility of punitive damages and torts as in the United States, a la the ongoing BP difficulties. LDK essentially has unlimited credit in mainland China, for good reason.
    Oct 14, 2010. 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Will Never, Ever Catch China in Clean Energy - Not a Reason to Stop Investing [View article]
    The flip-side to the point you are making is that if the Chinese government wants a solar company to succeed, that company will be fine. I don't buy your nationalization story. The Chinese government wants their clean energy companies listed on American stock exchanges to be taken seriously. The out-right favoritism in China of certain companies is one reason why I believe LDK will be an amazing success story, under any circumstances. As for the rule of law, is that what occurred during the recent American sub-prime fiasco? Look, I think you underestimate the sophistication of Chinese economic policy when it comes to the clean energy industry.
    Sep 10, 2010. 09:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Will Never, Ever Catch China in Clean Energy - Not a Reason to Stop Investing [View article]
    MIT professor Ely Sachs originally invented the String Ribbon technology commercialized by ESLR. I know plenty about the benefits of Silicon Valley and its population, though I am unclear whether either Berkeley or Stanford is much of a hotbed for cutting-edge clean energy research. And I bet I can out-write those engineers when it comes to economics ;).
    Sep 10, 2010. 09:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sun Spots: Will the Economy Suddenly Double-Dip? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments and I hope people enjoyed my article. While I do think there is value to the concept of sun spots, fundamentally, the most important thing for investors to have is a firm grasp of real factors. I think the recovery will move along at a slow pace after some turbulence in Q4 2010. The best forecaster in the business, Jan Hatzius of GS, projected lower than consensus GDP growth in the second half of 2010, before the recovery picks up a bit in 2011 - see p. 2 of this document:

    www.scribd.com/doc/346...

    He has revised downward since July. So I think later this year, when markets get spooked by further bad news, may be a good time to buy equities.
    Aug 23, 2010. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sun Spots: Will the Economy Suddenly Double-Dip? [View article]
    Here's one scenario: Indicators and news articles over the next month take a turn for the worse, spooking consumers even further. In turn, businesses expect a drop-off in demand during 2011 and cut back on hiring and investment. The stock market takes another dive, and we have a double-dip. For example, today's Wal-Mart earnings figures were good, but driven by foreign revenue growth, not same-store (domestic) growth.

    Conversely, deflation fears may abate, and growth indicators for China and Europe pick up. Corporations go on an M&A rampage, using their huge cash reserves, and we even start to see some IPO's. In turn, sonsumers feel confident once again and start spending. Double-dip averted!
    Aug 17, 2010. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evergreen Solar: Where to Next? [View article]
    I think ESLR is a textbook case of terrible management. Feldt just doesn't have what it takes pure and simple. By now it's probably too late to salvage.
    Aug 15, 2010. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Past High Unemployment: The Recovery Will Soldier On [View article]
    Mike, your comment is entirely consistent with my article. I know that working class people spend more of their income. I was making a general point about the bifurcation of the American labor market. The problem with architects is that there are too many of them - excess labor supply. Same with attorneys. They should have gotten training in a field which is experiencing labor shortages, like hi-tech engineering or manufacturing.
    Aug 10, 2010. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Past High Unemployment: The Recovery Will Soldier On [View article]
    My article was published at 8 AM today on SA. This article by David Leonhardt was published in the New York Times at 3 PM today:

    www.nytimes.com/2010/0...

    A little suspicious, at least in my eyes ;):
    Aug 10, 2010. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Past High Unemployment: The Recovery Will Soldier On [View article]
    Dave, I think the recovery will continue because my reading of all available indicators is that things are getting better albeit slowly. I do not foresee any large shocks that could get the economy off this path. Of course, a large-scale terrorist attack is still possible. After all, the recent financial crisis occurred largely because it caught people off guard; very few thought that Wall Street went as far as we now know they did with subprime mortgages etc. I am guessing you do not agree with my optimism. If not, tell me why you think the recovery will veer off course.
    Aug 10, 2010. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jobs and Housing Don't Matter That Much to This Recovery [View article]
    fxmaven, I admire your chutzpah. If you are short the market, I think you are in good company, as Jim Rogers is supposedly doing the same right now.

    There is a fascinating article in yesterday's New York Times:

    www.nytimes.com/2010/0...

    The gist is that employers have a hard time finding qualified blue-collar workers these days, and many manufacturers are saying that they may never bring back the lower-skilled jobs they once offered. The fundamental causes are insufficient education and job training for lower-skill populations in the US, as well as increasing skill requirements for hi-tech manufacturing positions. Employers are actually reporting a skills shortage. This article suggests that many unemployed middle-aged individuals may never find gainful employment again, which could lead to social unrest down the road, and more cities turning into Detroit-like disasters.

    Again, the point of my original article above is that investors ought not to place too much emphasis on these issues as the recovery continues. The problem of the chronically unemployed isn't going away, but this population of low-skill individuals is not very relevant to equity returns. Even if the recovery was plowing ahead full-steam, which it is not, these people would still have great difficulty finding work, and unemployment would still be very high. These workers are basically left out of the American Dream at this point, and it is difficult to see how that will change, unfortunately.
    Jul 2, 2010. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jobs and Housing Don't Matter That Much to This Recovery [View article]
    Right now we are in the midst of the flip-side to a bubble. Which is extreme, irrational pessimism, and... anger. Which means it may be a good time to buy, either now or soon. I suspect most SA commenters now live in a self-constructed bomb-shelter underneath their suburban homes.
    Jul 1, 2010. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LDK’s Business Strategy: Taking a Cue From Old-School Boston Consulting Group [View article]
    I think that transparency and communication issues are due to a lack of experience in world capital markets. Even the best of them, like Michael Burry (see The Big Short), may have trouble with communicating their vision properly. Sometimes world-class analytical skills do not come with perfect sales skills. This means that LDK may be a diamond-in-the-rough right now.
    Jul 1, 2010. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jobs and Housing Don't Matter That Much to This Recovery [View article]
    My point is that jobs are different, as are workers. Investors need to pay attention to the unemployment rate among the well-educated, high-value-added workers. As things pick up, and these workers are matched to jobs, then the lower-value-added workers will be matched eventually. That is taking a long time to occur in this recovery, which is obviously problematic. Still, I read a lot of current financial news, and the point I am making is not only valid, but it has not been made by others. However, I do not want to rehash this old argument, since I have not been impressed by commenters' understanding of economics, to be honest.
    Jul 1, 2010. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jobs and Housing Don't Matter That Much to This Recovery [View article]
    Mr. Market is a bit simple-minded, as jobless claims seem to lead the S&P lately:

    www.marketwatch.com/st...
    Jul 1, 2010. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is America’s Current Moat? [View article]
    Nice bit of research suggesting that these for-profit educational institutions are often a big scam:

    www.marketfolly.com/20...
    Jun 14, 2010. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
19 Comments
17 Likes