Cornelius

Overview of Lower Forex Volatility In the Face of Dramatic News Announcements

Surprise index is the deviation of actual from consensus expected number - it's a fairly standard measure in FX but I probably should have explained more.

For an example: if we have a 1.0 z-score, the actual number is 1 standard deviation away from the consensus.


On Apr 28 09:50 AM Cliff Wachtel wrote:

> I'm clearly missing some background here. Where would I find background
> info on the"surprise index" and its meaning? Unless you're aiming
> for a very narrow audience, you may want to provide more background
> info and spell out your conclusions or implications- which would
> be worth hearing. thanks, Cliff

Is a Copper Bubble Now Forming?

Wow, lots of comments here - apologies, this isn't my main site (Seeking Alpha reposts from my blog, zerohedge.com).

To address some of the comments:

- Why I didn't address supply side

The picture is still developing and it obviously is a major piece of the equation. However, I have seen lots of conflicting data on specifics and the article was getting long enough... at some point I will probably address the supply side.

- Cameroni, somewhat confused by your comments. The two main points I can extract are:

You are thinking as a private investor and not as a global and growing superpower. You are thinking in terms of weekly and monthly stock market gains, not in the terms of a regional and dominant Asian power. Nor are you considering the long term, significant and strategic implications that a country considers when undertaking large commodity purchases.

AND

I also question your assertion that a "large number of luminaries are skeptical" of the veracity of Chinese numbers

Re: your first point. Yes, I do think as an investor and not as a global strategic player. In the long, long term, copper is a very bullish play. However, we are likely to see a huge downward correction in the medium term which is what this article is about. Maybe there is more in your comment that I'm not seeing.

Re: your second point. Fair enough; here is an article from Roubini specifically about this: www.rgemonitor.com/blo...

- The Chinese are buying to diversify from their bonds

The amount that they are buying is still minuscule in absolute terms to their bond holdings - a few billion here and there cannot be defined as "diversifying". The smaller market size and overall volatility of the market don't really make it very friendly for the purposes of portfolio management for the Chinese.