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It's A Wonderful Herbalife: An Honest Appraisal
- Herbalife is an extremely controversial stock, but basic fundamental analysis can determine whether it is a Buy, Sell, or Hold at current levels.
- HLF screens as very cheap based on cash flow measures like dividend discount models, less so on balance sheet measures like EV/EBITDA.
- Fair value for HLF under DDM scenarios range from $15 - $57. More aggressive inputs could create an even higher target price.
- Fair value for HLF under P/E measures ranges from the low-$40's to the sell-side consensus of $90 and up. EV/EBIDTA valuation measures give a similar range.
A Basket Of 5 Bear Market Dividend Stocks Yielding 5%
- Despite a recovery YTD, dividend-paying stocks have been on the outs the last few years.
- Mean-reversion indicates that dividends will soon become more of the composition of equity total returns than in the recent past.
- Go with strong generators of cash that can easily cover their dividend with minimal credit risks and without high fixed costs that boomerang against companies during slowdowns.
- A defensive Fab Five: CenturyLink, Royal Dutch Shell, MarkWest Energy Partners, American Capital Senior Floating Ltd., and Philip Morris provide a blended 5.6% dividend yield.
- Don't stretch for yield and go with stocks or businesses that can adjust if rates rise a bit to reflect a stronger economy, as unlikely as that seems now.
Another Brazilian Clunker: Petrobras' Coming Debt Debacle
- Petrobras has world-class reserve and resource potential, but it might be too much to digest.
- The company's debt levels are at wildcat E&P levels, without the balance sheet strength of other supermajors.
- Petrobras has been used as a piggy-bank by the Brazilian government; will this ever end?
- Petrobras will not go bankrupt if the Brazilian economy or oil prices slide but the debt will get uncomfortable attention.
- The stock has run up on expectations that a new government will be more pro-shareholder friendly, but wait for a better opportunity down the line.
mREITs: Double-Digit Returns At The 2014 Half-Way Mark, More To Come!
- Mortgage REITs are trading at 10% discounts to book value.
- Mortgage REITs are yielding 12% with dividends cut to sustainable levels.
- 5 names for your basket: AGNC, CYS, TWO, MFA, and AMTG. Yield, diversity, and the ability to thrive in rising and falling rate and economic conditions.
- Preferred stock is a new and growing segment for mREIT investors; they offer competitive yields to the reduced dividends in the sector, while offering a more senior capital position.
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- CenturyLink: How A 7% Yielder Hit Into A Triple Play