Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
If it is Kynamro (mipomersen) he is speaking of, I don't think AEGR has much to worry about. The CHMP has refused to recommend its marketing authorization to the EC, twice. (It gave a rare unanimous approval to lomitapide)
Scrappy Upstarts Aiming For Pfizer's Xalkori Market [View article]
Thank you for the feedback. The Response Genetics diagnostic looks very interesting. I would look into it further, but I'm afraid it is so close to Seeking Alpha's policy concerning minimum market cap and price, that it might not be published.
Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
Hello Arthurs1, I appreciate your feedback, but I think there is some confusion with the $295k annual maintenance price and the $235k initiation price. Those figures are on slide 23 of this presentation http://bit.ly/11wSnOK It was given at the J.P Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 8, 2013.
The CEO's name is Marc Beer. On June 3, he said the combined US and EU HoFH population is between 7-8,000. If there are 7-8,000 in a population of 800 million, an estimate of 15,000 in the world population of 7 billion is very conservative.
From theAegerion's 2013 10-Q: "Our JUXTAPID patent portfolio consists of five issued U.S. patents and issued patents in parts of Europe, Canada, Israel, Australia, New Zealand and Japan and pending applications in the U.S., Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada, India and South Korea, all of which have been licensed to us in a specific field. The U.S. patent covering the composition of matter of JUXTAPID is scheduled to expire in 2015, but we have filed an application for patent term extension for this patent. The non-U.S. patents directed to the composition of matter of JUXTAPID are scheduled to expire in 2016, but may also be eligible for extensions in certain countries. Our method of use patent covering certain dosing regimens for JUXTAPID expires in 2027 in the U.S., and in 2025 in the EU." Additional exclusivity granted through orphan drug designations is covered in the article under the sub-head: "Orphan drug designations and exclusivity"
What is the name of the Sanofi/Isis drug you mentioned?
I hope this clears up some of the confusion. Thanks again for the feedback.
Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
Thank you, I too believe gross margins on this drug are going to be about 85%. I chose 20-40% for an overall profit margin to account for the expense of developing new drugs, clinical trials, etc... Also, the company is providing a high level of ongoing customer care to ensure patients adhere to low fat diets. 15,000 worldwide is an exciting figure, but I don't expect the company to be selling outside of the US and EU before the end of 2015.
Why Ariad's Iclusig Is A Potential Blockbuster [View article]
Thank you. I actually spent a couple hours attempting to make that table, but became so frustrated trying to incorporate all the unknowns that I scrapped it. The company has steadily diluted shares to fund operations. It ended Q1 2013 with $373.30 million in cash. That period was its most expensive one yet with operating expenses of $70.74 million. It shouldn't need to dilute shares further before reaching profitability on sales of Iclusig. If total sales hits $1.23 billion in by 2018 with a modest 30% profit margin, and without diluting shares further, EPS would be $2.05 in 2018.
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind [View article]
Read Alfred Mann opening comments carefully. He more or less suggests trial data shows that Afrezza controls postprandial peaks better, results in lower fasting glucose levels, and reduces the overall risk of hypos. http://seekingalpha.co... Those are some bold statements, but if true it solves above problem number 1 with a solution to 2 as an added bonus.
6 Ways You Can Profit From Molecular Diagnostics [View article]
Well this is embarrassing. I allowed this NYT article: http://nyti.ms/18jpmfy to influence my opinion about EXAS. I wish I had written this back in mid-April when Wall Street overreacted the same way that I did. I could have realized an opportunity. Now that the article is live I can't correct it myself, but I will contact the editors to have the statement: "Convenience is currently its only benefit as the data released in April shows its detection rate is equal to, or worse than traditional screening methods that cost patients a tenth of what Exact Sciences is charging." removed.
Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
Scrappy Upstarts Aiming For Pfizer's Xalkori Market [View article]
The Response Genetics diagnostic looks very interesting. I would look into it further, but I'm afraid it is so close to Seeking Alpha's policy concerning minimum market cap and price, that it might not be published.
Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
I appreciate your feedback, but I think there is some confusion with the $295k annual maintenance price and the $235k initiation price. Those figures are on slide 23 of this presentation http://bit.ly/11wSnOK It was given at the J.P Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 8, 2013.
The CEO's name is Marc Beer. On June 3, he said the combined US and EU HoFH population is between 7-8,000. If there are 7-8,000 in a population of 800 million, an estimate of 15,000 in the world population of 7 billion is very conservative.
From theAegerion's 2013 10-Q: "Our JUXTAPID patent portfolio consists of five issued U.S. patents and issued patents in parts of Europe, Canada, Israel, Australia, New
Zealand and Japan and pending applications in the U.S., Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada, India and South Korea, all of which have been
licensed to us in a specific field. The U.S. patent covering the composition of matter of JUXTAPID is scheduled to expire in 2015, but we have
filed an application for patent term extension for this patent. The non-U.S. patents directed to the composition of matter of JUXTAPID are
scheduled to expire in 2016, but may also be eligible for extensions in certain countries. Our method of use patent covering certain dosing
regimens for JUXTAPID expires in 2027 in the U.S., and in 2025 in the EU." Additional exclusivity granted through orphan drug designations is covered in the article under the sub-head: "Orphan drug designations and exclusivity"
What is the name of the Sanofi/Isis drug you mentioned?
I hope this clears up some of the confusion. Thanks again for the feedback.
Why Aegerion Is Worth 1,732 Times Sales [View article]
I too believe gross margins on this drug are going to be about 85%. I chose 20-40% for an overall profit margin to account for the expense of developing new drugs, clinical trials, etc...
Also, the company is providing a high level of ongoing customer care to ensure patients adhere to low fat diets.
15,000 worldwide is an exciting figure, but I don't expect the company to be selling outside of the US and EU before the end of 2015.
Exelixis And Cabozantinib: ASCO 2013 Highlights [View article]
Why Ariad's Iclusig Is A Potential Blockbuster [View article]
Why Ariad's Iclusig Is A Potential Blockbuster [View article]
I actually spent a couple hours attempting to make that table, but became so frustrated trying to incorporate all the unknowns that I scrapped it.
The company has steadily diluted shares to fund operations. It ended Q1 2013 with $373.30 million in cash. That period was its most expensive one yet with operating expenses of $70.74 million. It shouldn't need to dilute shares further before reaching profitability on sales of Iclusig.
If total sales hits $1.23 billion in by 2018 with a modest 30% profit margin, and without diluting shares further, EPS would be $2.05 in 2018.
Freeport-McMoRan: 1 Good, 1 Bad, And 1 Dollar [View article]
Why Ariad's Iclusig Is A Potential Blockbuster [View article]
Chesapeake 2.0: The Chairman Is In, You Should Be Too [View article]
Chesapeake 2.0: The Chairman Is In, You Should Be Too [View article]
Great News For Gilead Sciences And HCV Patients [View article]
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind [View article]
you're getting a bump from Marketwatch: http://on.mktw.net/16P...
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Those are some bold statements, but if true it solves above problem number 1 with a solution to 2 as an added bonus.
6 Ways You Can Profit From Molecular Diagnostics [View article]
I wish I had written this back in mid-April when Wall Street overreacted the same way that I did. I could have realized an opportunity. Now that the article is live I can't correct it myself, but I will contact the editors to have the statement:
"Convenience is currently its only benefit as the data released in April shows its detection rate is equal to, or worse than traditional screening methods that cost patients a tenth of what Exact Sciences is charging."
removed.