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I invest using derivatives, and traded various markets for about 14 years. My company is designing a new kids android app, to be released in Q4 2013. N.N. Taleb and market experience taught me most of what I know about trading.
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  • Dow 20,000 On The Backs Of Slaves

    U.S. Corporations are much more efficient now than in the past. They have Asians and other off-white colors do the slave labor, safe and sound across the ocean, without the threat of civil wars at home. If unrest occurs in the region, simply uproot, and employ slaves in a different region of Asia, or elsewhere.

    At home they allow some of their own citizens to print money and buy the things being made by the slaves overseas. They make the remainder of their citizens into wage slaves and TV watchers, to keep them busy and manageable, so they won't have time to mess with the system.

    The stock market is filled with corporations which are utilizing this recipe of overseas slave labor and at home wage slave labor, at huge profit and massive competitive advantage. The potency of this strategy should not be underestimated.

    Therefore at this stage, no one of sound logic or judgment should be betting against the stock market. It represents the last bastion of polyarchichal rich white guy passive wealth creation in a zero interest rate world.

    As deflation accelerates, money will chase money. And everybody knows that U.S. corporations are sitting on vast piles of the stuff.

    Throughout recorded history, white people have always been the most gifted cheaters of the universe, enslaving and tricking others into worshipping them as kings and queens.

    On this basis I expect Dow to fly to 20,000 once those old school rallies come back, like when +450 Dow days become commonplace. This is due in part to inflation, but also as a flight to safety, as dividends and capital gains become irresistible to the polyarchy elite who:

    A. Have virtually all of the money in the world, and

    B. Want a return on that money.

    The 30 year bull market in bonds is over. The 12 year bear market in stocks is over. It's time to invest in the stock market, before the wealthiest 1% figure it out, and explode stocks higher.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Sep 02 3:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Spoiled Prince

    In the world of casinos, slots are King, video games are Queen, and as long as there are players, the house is always the Spoiled Prince, personified in this tale by Activision Blizzard.

    Casinos, in effect, are gaming companies that let you gamble on their games. In the past decade they have replaced the old style arcades, as non gamblers play XBox or Playstation at home, while gamblers visit arcades (casinos) that spit quarters back at you. With Lord of the Rings slots, video poker with virtual dealers smiling and bouncing their virtual cleavage at the so called player, and graphics that mesmerize their viewers, it's all just a game in the end.

    Online poker has shown that gambling from home is worth billions. So who holds the key to this palace of home based, highly entertaining gambling? The Spoiled Prince of course.

    ATVI has programmed real money markets into a game for the first time, tapping Ebay to help with the legality of financially rewarding gamers for playing.

    To wit: Diablo 3 and its real money marketplace allows buying and selling of in-game swords and magic items for fun and profit (intellectual property never seemed so real). Once this has been perfected, applied, and expanded globally to their current and upcoming franchises, players around the world will finally feel justified in devoting hundreds of hours of their lives to their television and computer screens.

    ATVI has the strategic advantage of being top dog in the video game space, which means as money and eventually gambling is integrated, Vegas will have a most dangerous competitor in the "gamble from home" market. Imagine players in World of Warcraft playing no limit poker at their virtual local pub.

    In every case, Activision Blizzard acts as "the house", collecting fees from millions of games and transactions, all played on company servers.

    Fundamentally ATVI is in its golden era as a corporation, destroying estimates quarter after quarter, year after year. Even in a never ending recession, they print money, selling 25 million copies of COD Black ops worldwide (can you name the other players that print a billion dollars with a few keystrokes?), and printing another billion every time a Call of Duty game is released.

    ATVI has a digitally scalable, dependence creating, convex payout style business, able to provide unlimited upside, with laughably limited downside.

    So why aren't institutional investors placing their bets on this Spoiled Prince? As I will explain in my next article, investors and laypersons (non-gamblers) alike are almost unanimously infected with a biological condition that I call "Forced Deterministic Behavior", or "unenlightened minds only act once they are forced to act, and not a minute sooner".

     
    May 04 3:02 PM | Link | Comment!
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