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Craig Brockie
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Craig Brockie is a contrarian investment advisor in Beverly Hills, who provides wealth management services to high net worth clients. He prefers to bill his clients solely based on performance, getting paid only for results.
My company:
Contrarian Advisors
My blog:
Contrarian Investing News
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  • Gold Price Manipulation Or The Makings Of An Epic Rally?

    Today I'm going to share a special treat with you, which you'll find towards the bottom of this update.

    With summer coming to a close, the investment markets have been presenting some interesting opportunities.

    The bull market in US stocks and bonds appears to be reaching exhaustion as the index of smaller companies (represented by the Russell 2000 index) has failed to follow the big boys (represented by the S&P 500 index) to new highs. It appears to be 2007 all over again.

    Meanwhile, the gold and mining sectors have been shaking out uncommitted investors and frightening even the most die-hard gold bugs. This is despite gold and mining funds being some of the top performers this year. In fact, gold miners are setting much higher lows right now...30% higher in the case of junior mining fund, GDXJ.

    This is the pullback in the gold mining industry that I have been patiently waiting for. I have been buying GDXJ and related funds for my clients the past few days and have orders to buy more should we experience further weakness.

    With so many pre-2008 warning signals present today and with the S&P 500 index finally above the memorable level of 2,000, I have finally begun buying the short-selling fund, HDGE. The reason why 2008 was such a successful year for my clients and me is because we were shPrepare for the Bear Marketort the market.

    I estimate that most mutual funds that the general public are currently holding have 5-10% (max) upside potential in the very short term and 50-60% downside risk over the next couple of years. This is similar to before 2008 when the S&P 500 index continued grinding higher for a few months after the Russell 2000 had peaked and then went on to plummet 57%.

    On the other hand, I estimate that the short-selling fund, HDGE has 50-60% upside potential over the next two years and 5-10% downside risk should the markets become even more irrational over the next several weeks. Clearly the odds of success are much better being short the market right now.

    Now, let's talk about gold and commodities. After hitting multi-year and in some cases all-time lows by some metrics, gold mining stocks have been among the best performers this year. In 2008, prior to the last collapse, commodities were the hottest investments, peaking several months after the S&P 500 index. Things are setting up to be the same again this time.

    Of course, like in 2008 we will need to sell ALL of our stock funds, even the gold mining ones, before the ultimate collapse. That said, the bear market is just beginning and like all past bear markets, it is likely to take up to two years to finally bottom.

    While my colleague and good friend, Steven Jon Kaplan disagrees, I believe that the markets are carefully "managed." There has been clear evidence of outright manipulation in both the gold market and the general stock market over the past year and half.

    In my opinion, the only thing that could prevent gold mining stocks from doubling or more from today's levels is manipulation. If the powers that be can keep the lid on this market for another year, they will have successfully prevented gold from participating along with the overall bull market in commodities and emerging markets, which I expect to rage into 2015.

    According to a report in the Financial Times, gold market manipulation was described as routine. While I've also written about this subject in the past, you can find the complete, unabridged history of gold price manipulation here.

    Although it seemed that the downward price manipulation in gold was behind us, it appears to have resurfaced again recently. This recent article shows that manipulation is still alive and well in the gold market.

    It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next year. I suspect that gold miners will rally along with the rest of the commodity bull market and make up for "lost time" by increasing more in percentage terms. Time will tell though. It's never wise to have all of one's eggs in one basket and this holds true for gold mining stocks.

    Now, I want to give you the treat I mentioned at the beginning of this update. Another contrarian colleague of mine, Jesse Stine has published a recent newsletter that I think you'll enjoy. Jesse successfully turned $46K into $6.8M in just 28 months, so he knows a thing or two about investing to say the least.

    Jesse went on the record at the beginning of this year, correctly predicting that commodities would finally break out of their bear markets and become star performers. He and I were certainly on the same page about this, along with my associate, Steven Jon Kaplan.

    Today I'd like to share with you Jesse's latest newsletter. It is titled, "Stuff" (think commodities) and you can find it right here.

    By the way, this is a free newsletter service from Jesse that you too can sign up for. I highly recommend you do. Here's the link to subscribe.

    That's all for today. Until my next update...

    Flourish and prosper,
    Craig Brockie - Registered Investment Advisor
    Contrarian Advisors - Rational Wealth Management
    Phone: 1-800-996-4657 - Email: invest@contrarianadvisors.com
    Address: 433 North Camden Drive, Sixth Floor, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

    P.S. Did you lose money in 2008? We didn't. If your financial advisor didn't warn you prior to the 2008 financial crisis and hasn't said anything by now, then it's up to you to make sure that doesn't happen again. Click here to qualify for a free initial consultation.

    PPS. Thank you for sharing this information with others. To receive updates like this one by email, subscribe to my own free newsletter service here.

    Sep 09 3:20 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Joan Perry Of Los Gatos Pens Financial Book

    As a contrarian investor and registered investment advisor, sharing my insights as to what's going on in the markets is definitely my top priority.Joan Perry of Los Gatos

    Ever now and then though, I like to write a post about someone related to the finance industry. Today, I'd like to introduce you to Joan Perry of Los Gatos. Joan is the author of a great book titled, "A Girl Needs Cash: How to Take Charge of Your Financial Life."

    The book summary states: "The easiest way to lose control of your life is to lose control of your financial life. Joan Perry's spectacularly successful Wall Street career shielded her from that truth--until a failed love affair and a lost nest egg jolted her into rethinking her priorities and then acting on them. Today Perry helps women gain control of their money and their lives by building long-term financial well-being through smart investing."

    I think this is an important book since financial education is missing from our school systems. I'm a big fan of Robert Kiyosaki and his financial learning materials. My sons and I love playing their board game, "Cashflow" that teaches financial intelligence in an entertaining way.

    Furthermore, finances have traditionally been the responsibility of men, so having a book tailored to women is great in my opinion.

    I've had the opportunity to speak to Joan Perry a few times now and am impressed with her experience in regards to the investment profession.

    In her book, Joan Perry shows you step by step how to review your spending habits and develop new sources of income to create the kind of life you want to live--now and well into your future.

    Perry also shows how to build a personal "money machine" to generate real cash flow with the right investment choices for you--stocks, mutual funds, real estate--and understand the tax choices that affect your cash flow.

    These are concepts that every investor should understand, especially since taxes can play such a significant role in any transaction.

    So if you are a woman looking for practical information about investing, or you looking for a dynamic speaker in Los Gatos or the San Jose area, I highly recommend getting in touch with Joan Perry.

    Aug 21 8:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • JPMorgan And Golmach Sachs Repackaging Crap For Suckers To Buy Again

    Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage-backed securities were all the rage. We know how that ended, with the public getting fleeced and the banks getting bailed out.

    As my associate, Steven Jon Kaplan pointed out in a recent "True Contrarian" newsletter, update:

    • The latest trend is to do the same repackaging scam with high-yield bonds and related assets, because high-yielding corporate debt is the 2014 equivalent of what mortgage debt had been in 2007.

      It's not clear if the title of the following article is intended to be sarcastic or not, but it's certainly true that investors are easily fooled into buying recycled garbage roughly every seven years without exception. Not surprisingly, these new securities are rated AAA by Standard & Poor's:

      JPMorgan Joins Goldman in Designing Derivatives for a New Generation

    Do you think that JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs have the best interests of the general public at heart? I didn't think so.

    What's shocking to me is that so many people today have been brainwashed into believing that the Federal Reserve has their back and therefore the stock markets cannot experience another severe bear market. This despite the fact that we've experienced a severe bear market every seven years since for the past two decades and so much evidence suggests that the next one is already beginning.

    If you believe the Fed is on our team, please watch this critically-acclaimed free documentary, "The Secrets of Oz."

    If you'd like to learn how to protect and grow your money in a bear market, click here to get your free report now.

    Aug 19 4:34 PM | Link | Comment!
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