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Craig Van Pelt

 
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  • Why You Don't Need To Worry About Syria [View article]
    Terrific analysis and really added to my misunderstanding/under... of the Syrian issue. Thanks. Craig
    Aug 29 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Printing Our Way To Negative Jobs Growth [View article]
    Steven,
    A GREAT article. What's scary is not that your futuristic projections will come to pass, but that the idiots in Washington won't react to it. As you pointed out, it will change society. We all should be buying farms and gold. Another thought is that bartering may become the new way to do business.

    Also, imagine the potential effect upon commercial real estate....why have millions of square feet of retail space and tens of millions of square feet of warehouse space.


    Thanks for the article.

    CRAIG VAN PELT
    Alpha Contributor
    Jul 28 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Use The Summer Rally To Get Out [View article]
    Dante,
    You wrote a really terrific article. Extremely compelling, and unfortunately right on target for the buying public. I'm a bit older than you and I remember all too vividly October 19, 1987....for funzies check the stats of 1987.

    At that time I was an RIA and trading OEX options in relatively large qtys. On the 18 and 19th of October we were VERY long puts...interesting that the call option premiums were NEGATIVE. I knew several guys trading on CBOE that were actually short puts. Never heard from them again.

    MANY friends of mine on the street were devastated and worse than that, folks on main street went through a painful life changing experience when the phones for margin calls started ringing.

    Thanks for you insight and guts to take the position you've taken.

    Regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Author - SA
    Jul 24 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    jaguar2005

    Thanks for you comments....you are right on target, and I think we'll see a significant short squeeze.

    Best regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Mar 11 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Manxbuilder,

    Thanks for you comments.

    You point about payment of dividends is an excellent point and I should have referenced that in my article.

    If and when Ackman must start buying, it will be a circus.

    This situation has the makings of the greatest short squeeze ever.

    Thanks again for you input. Best regards. CRAIG
    Mar 8 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    feedtheworld

    Thanks for your input and comments.

    My reference to the HLF "business model" being dynamic and profitable was meant to be from the Company's perspective. In other words, for the Company, it's very profitable.

    Concerning distributor profits (or discounts on personal consumption) there is the upside potential to earn significant income when volumes are generated, and that has been proven since there are many distributors world-wide making significant income. The stats are posted in HLF's due diligence pages.

    With reference to your example, I don't quite understand the math.

    Here would be my take on it:

    At a 25% discount with free shipping your landed cost would be $27.12. The shipping cost of $5.42 and the sales tax would be passed on to the customer. Correct? So, in this case the customer would pay $36.15 + $5.42 + $2.16 = $43.73

    If this were the case, the profit would be $9.03 + the freight cost if passed on.

    Many retailers would be pleased with this margin. Obviously, in order to make a business out of it, one would have to have more than a single customer.

    Thanks again and best regards. Craig
    Mar 8 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Hi dguo1

    Thanks for your comments and input. I sincerely believe you'll be VERY happy with your significant stock position in HLF.

    The numbers speak for themselves. It's a great company, with terrific
    fundamentals.

    Best regards. CRAIG VAN PELT
    Mar 8 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    jd7777

    Thanks for you input.

    I suspect that some of the major players abroad are following the story, but likely, not the average person - so you are correct.

    All the best.

    Craig Van Pelt
    Mar 8 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Herbs4Mike

    I really appreciate your comments and the time you took to put them together.

    You are 100% correct. There is a great deal of ignorance out there about MLM distribution. It's very easy to be critical when one is ignorant. Here's an interesting thought: Take a look at COSTCO or Sam's Club....you'll find that a VERY large percentage of their profits come from membership dues. Customers PAY, to receive a discount on their favorite products. I would love to see a study showing discounts received vs. membership fees paid for the average person....Yes, the MLM system it criticized....Imagine!

    The MLM / Direct Sales system is the purist there is, and the support given to customers by distributors is worth much more than the products.

    The concept of developing a large base of "Consumers" is the objective and that's what happens....Ackman believes this to be a bad thing because it's not main stream.

    Your point about "Non-Renewals" once a customer's goal has been attained is an excellent point. i.e. I recently had some surgery, and likely won't use the surgeon's services ever again. Should we call him a bad surgeon???

    Thanks again for you insight.

    Best regards. Craig.
    Mar 8 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Louis,

    Thanks for touching base.

    There will be chances to buy more!

    Best regards. Craig.
    Mar 7 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Doug,

    Thanks so much for your comments and I believe you're right on target.

    I think like you that it's simple math will keep the HLF shares going up. In the after hours right now its bidding up .75 on the news Icahn bought another 2,000,000 shares.

    I think $65 is reasonable, and in the event of a going private deal, it will be higher.

    Thanks again. Regards. Craig.
    Mar 7 06:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    dhuddle,

    Actually, my original title was "It's an Herb.....It's A Cahn....NO... IT'S HERBACAHN!"

    As you may know, after the close today (3/7/2013) Icahn announced he had bought an additional 2,000,000 shares.

    I agree, that the HLF deal for Mr. Icahn IS PERSONAL, regardless of what he says, and I'm loving it. I also feel that Mr. Ackman has totally mismanaged his situation, lost people money, threatened the livelihood of many and he deserves to take a big hit.

    As for Mr. Ackman's success ratio and good judgement, do you know anyone that's buyng JCP????? As you know, he holds an enormous position in JCP and has been a staunch supporter of Ron Johnson throughout the mess of destroying JCP with "New" marketing ideas.

    Thanks so very much for you input and comments. Best regards. Craig
    Mar 7 06:05 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations: R&D Will Soon Translate To ROI - It's A Buy [View article]
    Hi Steve,

    A bit of a price drop in oil, in my view and based upon my research, would not affect the advantage of shifting to NG. One reason, is the longer term view major players in transport industry adhere to.

    Another is the supply issues: huge amounts of NG vs. dwindling amount of oil will maintain the NG advantage.

    Thanks so much for your input. Best regards. Craig
    Mar 7 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Should Own Wells Fargo [View article]
    Well done.

    CRAIG VAN PELT
    Mar 4 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: 2 Huge Upside Catalysts [View article]
    Josh,

    Well done. Thanks for the article.

    Interesting to note, that I have small business accounts with Wells and just recently I've getting calls from the local branches offering me lines of credit.

    Regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Mar 4 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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