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Craig Van Pelt

 
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  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    dhuddle,

    Actually, my original title was "It's an Herb.....It's A Cahn....NO... IT'S HERBACAHN!"

    As you may know, after the close today (3/7/2013) Icahn announced he had bought an additional 2,000,000 shares.

    I agree, that the HLF deal for Mr. Icahn IS PERSONAL, regardless of what he says, and I'm loving it. I also feel that Mr. Ackman has totally mismanaged his situation, lost people money, threatened the livelihood of many and he deserves to take a big hit.

    As for Mr. Ackman's success ratio and good judgement, do you know anyone that's buyng JCP????? As you know, he holds an enormous position in JCP and has been a staunch supporter of Ron Johnson throughout the mess of destroying JCP with "New" marketing ideas.

    Thanks so very much for you input and comments. Best regards. Craig
    Mar 7 06:05 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Dangerous Idea [View article]
    Mr. Roche,

    When world powers (like they're beginning to do now), eliminate the USD as a Reserve Currency, the game will be over. Movements are now afoot in China, Korea, Russia and the Middle East to move away from the USD as the "Oil Currency."

    When the status of USD as a Reserve Currency changes it will be the most catastrophic event in our history. Add to that the rising interest rates, the government will reach the point where not even interest payments could be satisfied....yet our leaders continue the deficit spending binge to the extent of around $200,000,000 DAILY.

    As the author suggests, by having printing presses it is impossible for the government to "run out of money." That's not the point....the point is that it won't be worth the paper and ink used to produce it.

    In many respects, I'm glad I'm not a young man.

    CRAIG VAN PELT
    S/A Author
    Sep 15 09:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not To Invest In Herbalife [View article]
    Rob,
    I enjoyed your analysis and your conclusion that much of the Herbalife business model is based upon "Hope." You are 100% correct. However, while "hope" is an integral part of the HLF success, the Company should be congratulated for offering "hope" ....not castigated.

    It's been said that the only difference between a church and a successful MLM company is that the church doesn't pay income tax, but the MLM does. While this concept may appear humorous, it is essential to the MLM model, and few people really understand or appreciate the power of it. The elite in our society are turned off by this concept, just as they are turned off by organized religion.

    Folks seeking to lose weight and/or develop a healthier lifestyle succeed when they receive support....not just ingest product. HLF and the like offer a HUGE support system, and it becomes almost evangelical, but it works.

    The "one-on-one" personalized system of distribution, while foreign to execs of traditional fortune 500 companies (And Wall Street Hedge Fund Managers) is pure, powerful and it works. When HLF began business many years ago their distributors roamed the streets and malls with a button with the simple phrase: "Lose Weight Now...Ask Me How." Sales went from ground zero to multi-millions and moved the HLF warehouse from the trunk of Mark Hugh's car to more respectable facilities. Why did it work? Because of the offer of personalized attention, the need of folks to be part of something and their belief that the products work. (which they do)

    Concerning your comments about the products being overpriced: of course, the products are overpriced compared to what can be found in the supermarket or drug stores. So what??? Built into the SRP of the products is the margin for distributors, the support they offer to customers, delivery to customers, and a hefty profit for HLF. All companies (MLM's included) have the absolute right to set their prices and we see it everyday in virtually every sector of the market. I consider it to be a necessary and rather brilliant business model.

    Concerning the dismal success ratio as a business opportunity, it should be no surprise to anybody! Unfortunately, most people do not have the abilities, discipline etc to make a success of the HLF opportunity (Or ANY business opportunity). How many kids dream of becoming a professional football or baseball player....and how many succeed? How many young MBA's dream of becoming CEO's of major public companies, and how many reach that goal??? I suspect, if a statistical analysis was done, we'd find those stats to be even more dismal than the HLF/MLM sector.

    Our free enterprise, capitalistic system is in large part based upon hope and dreams. The guys at HLF have found a legitimate way to put it into a bottle so-to-speak and make it work.

    This whole attack upon HLF has become as much political as it is business. Folks are doing what they want based upon their own free choice. The HLF experience has positively affected millions of people worldwide.....Unfortun... guys like Ackerman and others who don't (or can't) understand the essence of the business model
    somehow believe that it's their right and obligation to "police" a free market enterprise along with the government and tell folks what they can, or cannot do.

    Lastly, your criticism of HLF's policy of not allowing products to be sold in retail stores is off base. That policy was established to protect distributors and maintain the integrity of the unique business model. Why not just accept that fact instead of considering it to be evil or an admission of guilt?

    HLF has demonstrated a long history of success and growth. It's a huge money-maker, and will continue to grow and prosper and the stock will continue to appreciate. The shorts will get crushed.

    Thanks again for your article and the time you spent on putting it together. Regards. Craig

    CRAIG VAN PELT
    S/A Contributor
    Dec 7 05:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Debt Issue Phony? [View article]
    Sir,
    An interesting, and VERY Democratic analysis of our debt problem. Instead of comparing and touting interest expense as % of GDP, why not compare apples with apples, and compare government tax receipts to its spending? I believe a new and "scary" picture will appear.
    Oct 5 08:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Cometh - Could The Stock Be Worth $103.93 Per Share? [View article]
    K.

    Thanks for all of your comments. Here is what I meant:

    1. The history of the FTC is that when a violation occurs they act quickly and generally along with AG's of states. So, since they have not taken action for 32 years, it would seem logical that HLF is not in violation of their policies.

    2. The numerous FTC regulations pertaining to MLM marketing and the like are clear in the sense that they are in writing and have many legal precedents to support them. An experience lawyer is able to discern if there is or not compliance.

    3. The reference to a PE of 29.78 was metaphoric but based upon a real number of a real previous transaction.

    4. Regarding Icahn's position of having acquired Puts and Calls, my understanding is that a report must be field first with subsequent permission being given for a "Reporting Person" to acquire more than 10%. His strategy of using options is commonplace and brilliant.

    5. As to those jumping out on Friday, I would have jumped out also with a 10 point gain on news. As you see, the stock closed up only fractionally which speaks of the "Fear" and the herd mentality that gripped the stock in the after hours market.

    As to who's ultimately right and who is ultimately wrong, I believe Ackman is wrong for many reasons, not the least of which is his lack of a legal opinion plus his self-serving antics that tell a story.

    But, that's what makes markets - different opinions.

    Thanks again for your input. Best regards. Craig Van Pelt.
    Feb 17 03:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower WTI Oil Price Ahead [View article]
    Wonderful analysis and great article. Thanks. I agree 100%.

    CRAIG VAN PELT
    Alpha Contributor
    Nov 3 09:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Hi,
    Thanks for your comment. If you have the time, go to their website and search out their portfolio of products. It's HUGE and highly diversified.

    COPAXONE represents about 20% of their total revenue. I also think it's relevant that there is some $30 Billion worth of sales from competitors products that are patents expire in 2012-2013 and TEVA, as worlds largest generic will surely take a % of that market.. I believe just that will more than offset lost revenue from COPAXONE.

    Plus, all of their acquisitions of 209-2011 are becoming accretive.

    I just don't very much downside. The geopolitical risk is there, of course, but then again, most of their operations are outside os Israel.

    Thanks again. Craig
    Jan 31 04:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy [View article]
    Considering sector PE of 15 to 18, and TEVA at around 6.50 and add to it the sweeping changes taking place + $30 billion in competitor patents expiring, I believe the downside risk is minimal.

    One could certainly wait until it rallies, but often a good time to buy is when things don't look very good but future prospects are bright.

    Plus, one gets paid around 2.75% for waiting a bit.

    I do agree with you, that in general, it's not a good strategy to try to "catch a falling knife" but I don't think this is the case with TEVA

    Thanks for your comment.
    Thanks again. Craig
    Jan 31 12:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear And Loathing On Wall Street [View article]
    Eric,

    I am also a contributor to SA, and your article is brilliant, articulate and one of the best pieces of writing I've seen in a long time.

    Craig Van Pelt
    Jan 25 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Literally Leaps On Board [View article]
    Doug,

    Thanks so much for your comments and I believe you're right on target.

    I think like you that it's simple math will keep the HLF shares going up. In the after hours right now its bidding up .75 on the news Icahn bought another 2,000,000 shares.

    I think $65 is reasonable, and in the event of a going private deal, it will be higher.

    Thanks again. Regards. Craig.
    Mar 7 06:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Wells Fargo Ever Be Set Free? [View article]
    Well done.

    I bank at Wells and believe they are terrific compared to BAC. I believe consumer sentiment makes a difference.

    Regards. CRAIG VAN PELT
    Feb 28 05:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013: Another False Start [View article]
    Great article. I concur. No doubt the market is getting tired. An interesting metric is that the put option premiums on all of the ETFS and indices are growing daily and have in recent weeks consistently been relatively greater than call premiums.

    Thanks. Regards.

    Craig Van Pelt
    Feb 18 10:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Cometh - Could The Stock Be Worth $103.93 Per Share? [View article]
    Vince,

    You are right on target and you put it in very clear terms. Same as SOP GAAP indeed. If a public company operated outside SOP GAAP principles for 32 years, we all know that the legal beagles would have found it and had hundreds of law suits going on.

    Thanks so much for your valuable comments.

    Best regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Feb 17 03:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Icahn Cometh - Could The Stock Be Worth $103.93 Per Share? [View article]
    Bruce,

    Thanks for your comment.

    The numerous FTC regulations pertaining to MLM marketing and the like are clear in the sense that they are in writing and have many legal precedents to support them. An experienced lawyer is able to discern if there is or is not compliance.

    Regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Feb 17 03:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations: R&D Will Soon Translate To ROI - It's A Buy [View article]
    Steve,
    Thanks for your comments, and your questions are well taken.

    There's uncertainty and a bit of risk in everything which includes the present disparity in prices of oil vs. nat gas. However, I think it's very safe to say that while oil may dip from its present levels, so will nat gas considering the huge supplies that are coming on the market.

    Also, the attraction to the WPRT system is not just an immediate savings, but the ability for users to project over a period of time with more consistency which they can't do with oil.

    WPRT has been selling their systems for years now and revenue continues to grow during times when oil prices have been all over the place.

    Lastly, I really think that pressure will continue to mount globally on the environmental issue which has a multiplying effect and will bring new users into play even though price disparity is not great.

    Lots of angles to look at, but I believe the future will demand nat gas as a fuel and WPRT will be there to oblige.

    Thanks again. Best regards. Craig Van Pelt
    Feb 14 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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