Profits are not guaranteed even over an extended period in equities. Equity investors have largely lost money against inflation over the past 13 years. Unless they were successful in market timing.
That's a long time period, and a loss that is hard to recover from. Likely the reason why most have left the stock markets, and are continuing to leave.
Dividend Aristocrat Investing In Canada [View article]
Our oligopoly model in Canada gives them pricing power. We have the highest mers on mutual funds where Canadians keep most of their money, unfortunately. Plus there is not enough competition to keep fees low. They own the debit system. Make money from credit cards, etc. Essentially, every retail transaction. Canadians are the biggest users of debit payment method.
And we have sensible regulation within the mortgage industry, unlike the US who socialized mortgages with the Freddie's and the Fannie's. It was US government policy to put working poor into homes. Deregulation ensued. Bankruptcy laws changed.
Would add that our bank CEO's have been very sensible and conservative as well. TD now has more clients in the US.
Canada has a socialized mortgage insurance scheme, but current government is looking to blow that up, thankfully.
Adaptive Asset Allocation: A True Revolution In Portfolio Management [View article]
Amazing work. Thanks. It's a Franken-Permanent Portfolio with more constant rebalancing. And a variation of Permanent holdlings, long, short treasuries, equities, gold (materials).
The Permanent Portfolio had only two down years over the last 40. Rebalancing those four assets certainly works for providing total returns and very low volatility.
Retirees' Number 1 Dividend Strategy [View article]
Yikes, these seem dangerous on a few fronts? Interest rates, and they're guaranteed by a government agency.
But the US currently borrows or prints to cover its costs, OK 40% of all spending and rising. So the money's not there. A government ponzi scheme if you will.
Perhaps it's income one could chase but be prepared to exit in a hurry?
And what would you consider to be a reasonable hedge against mreit unit price declines? Broad based equity etf?
How much would they decline for every 1% increase in rates?
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
Stox, tis true that pros don't beat the market and neither do retail investors. Math (and odds) of course ensure that a few will beat the marktets on a short term basis.
Are you a stock picker, or do you choose etf's?
If you beat the indexes with picks, would you attribute that to market timing or company selection, or perhaps sector selection?
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
the fund did very well. the average person in the fund did not, though certainly some had the common sense to stay the course and make a lot of money. I will check with my friend on the source.
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
Let's remember, when Lynch was racking up gains or 25% per year, the average investor in his fund gained about 1% per year due to poor market timing. See fear and greed.
The retail investor couldn't even stick out one of the best investments of all time. They lost a lot of money to inflation.
Will try and find the source of above sad tale. A money manager friend told me about this event.
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
Retail investors underperform the benchmark (index) by 4% per year.
The pros are almost as bad on average. Many of them with even worse records when you include fees of course.
No reason to stock pick. Dow 30 up about 65% total over three years. Dogs of Dow almost a double over that period. And of course bond etf's have had a great run for decades.
The U.S.: Stuck In The Slow Lane For How Long? [View article]
Exactly why MAYBE, it's best to have modest exposure to developing countries that are solvent with lower debt, the few developed countries that have their debt 'under control', and US companies that generate much of their income from solvent nations.
That said, being as this is a macro call, we could just as easily get explosive growth due to developing nations with rising middle class(es) , or it could all fall apart and trigger a global depression. Flip your gold coins.
When Something Goes Wrong: The Case Of JPMorgan Chase [View article]
If you just held the d30 you wouldn't care much. dji is up some 55% over three years, and likely about 65% in total return with reinvested dividends over that period.
Dogs of the Dow for a dividend strategy - returned 90% over three years.
once again my issue was governments and nations going bankrupt, or on the road to insolvency.
But on your separate argument, the US stock market is near all-time highs and corporate profits are at all time highs. You have federal government receipts (from private sector) near all-time highs. The public debt and deficit is still increasing. In the US, the private sector is doing its thing even against the backdrop of a government doing everything wrong and creating a debt and deficit crisis.
Hey Michael I think you mis-read my initial statement. I am referring to nations becoming insolvent. And of course, I think you'd agree, that is the fault of the governments who control their own spending (waste). They also control the private sector that generates government funds.
Once again, our schools pay $5000 for $1000 piece of carpet. Because they can't use the private sector and pay a fair market price. So students, parents and taxpayers suffer.
I knew this all would happen, when I discovered that our schools in Toronto pay $5000 for $1000 piece of carpet (and on and on) due to unionized government board workers - monopoly. Our schools are not allowed to pay a fair market price.
The problem is an event such as Italy having one million public servants retiring before the age of 50 with full pensions indexed to inflation - funded by taxpayers.
This is all very simple stuff, I would add respectfully. It is the transfer of wealth from private to public sector.
Book Review: The Risk Of Trading [View article]
That's a long time period, and a loss that is hard to recover from. Likely the reason why most have left the stock markets, and are continuing to leave.
Dividend Aristocrat Investing In Canada [View article]
And we have sensible regulation within the mortgage industry, unlike the US who socialized mortgages with the Freddie's and the Fannie's. It was US government policy to put working poor into homes. Deregulation ensued. Bankruptcy laws changed.
Would add that our bank CEO's have been very sensible and conservative as well. TD now has more clients in the US.
Canada has a socialized mortgage insurance scheme, but current government is looking to blow that up, thankfully.
Adaptive Asset Allocation: A True Revolution In Portfolio Management [View article]
The Permanent Portfolio had only two down years over the last 40. Rebalancing those four assets certainly works for providing total returns and very low volatility.
Retirees' Number 1 Dividend Strategy [View article]
But the US currently borrows or prints to cover its costs, OK 40% of all spending and rising. So the money's not there. A government ponzi scheme if you will.
Perhaps it's income one could chase but be prepared to exit in a hurry?
And what would you consider to be a reasonable hedge against mreit unit price declines? Broad based equity etf?
How much would they decline for every 1% increase in rates?
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
Are you a stock picker, or do you choose etf's?
If you beat the indexes with picks, would you attribute that to market timing or company selection, or perhaps sector selection?
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
The retail investor couldn't even stick out one of the best investments of all time. They lost a lot of money to inflation.
Will try and find the source of above sad tale. A money manager friend told me about this event.
Individuals Have No Business Picking Stocks? Really? [View article]
The pros are almost as bad on average. Many of them with even worse records when you include fees of course.
No reason to stock pick. Dow 30 up about 65% total over three years. Dogs of Dow almost a double over that period. And of course bond etf's have had a great run for decades.
The U.S.: Stuck In The Slow Lane For How Long? [View article]
That said, being as this is a macro call, we could just as easily get explosive growth due to developing nations with rising middle class(es) , or it could all fall apart and trigger a global depression. Flip your gold coins.
When Something Goes Wrong: The Case Of JPMorgan Chase [View article]
Dogs of the Dow for a dividend strategy - returned 90% over three years.
I'll just let those numbers do the talking.
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
But on your separate argument, the US stock market is near all-time highs and corporate profits are at all time highs. You have federal government receipts (from private sector) near all-time highs. The public debt and deficit is still increasing. In the US, the private sector is doing its thing even against the backdrop of a government doing everything wrong and creating a debt and deficit crisis.
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
Once again, our schools pay $5000 for $1000 piece of carpet. Because they can't use the private sector and pay a fair market price. So students, parents and taxpayers suffer.
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
There's your problem, expensive carpet.
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
This is all very simple stuff, I would add respectfully. It is the transfer of wealth from private to public sector.