Hey Ry the Kid. You are thinking too much. No one knows where any asset class or sector is going short or mid term, never mind where an individual company might be going.
You are young. You only need to take what the market is offering. You don't have to try and outsmart the market. Take what it offers and you will retire with a million or millions (if you're a good saver).
If you try to outsmart the market, history tells us that you will most likely underperform the market to a very substantial degree. And you will add years if not a decade to your working life.
If you must play, play with 10%, and hold a core portoflio of indexes. Or you can skim the indexes and hold them individually once you have a portfolio of substantial value.
If you don't like volatility (you'll find out one day), hold bonds as "shock absorbers".
Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
Not sure if you were kidding or not about Canada? We eliminated our deficit quite quickly with a combination of spending cuts (more government waste than programs as is advised) and an additional VAT - the GST. Actually the GST replaced a rag tag system. It was a sligth tax increase. We elimiated our terrible deficit in four years.
We experienced some very attractive growth rates.
The current government continues to eliminate waste and duplication within the federal system.
Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled [View article]
Yes, and on debt and deficit metrics, the US is in worse shape than 'total' Europe.
It's incredible that no one in the States is taking the situation seriously. Neither the Dems nor the Republicans have a plan that decreases the deficit in any meaningful way. The Ryan plan is useless as well.
Playing Debt Chicken may end up in a horrible accident.
A Real Dividend Growth Machine: 2012 Review [View article]
Hey DGM congratulations. Those are some very nice returns and a great strategy of course.
I was like you (when I was in my 30's) - I saved as much as I could. Certainly years with 30-40% plus savings rate (of after tax dollars). Many do not realize that the most important asepct of investing is saving - having money to invest. There is no get rich quick scheme. It takes time and a plan. You gotta feed the machine.
Your challenge will be can you stay the course in uncertain times? It's tough watching your portfolio holdings drop 60%, but I get the feeling that you will understand the long-term benefits of consistency, and will stick with it.
Stocks: One More Flicker Before The Lights Go Out [View article]
Actually the risks are real. It doesn't mean the equity markets will acknowledge reality. But Eric certainly has just laid out a few facts.
Europe is on the road to insolvency. US is on the same train. No one has a plan to fix either yet. We could certainly extend and pretend for a decade. Or not.
Sell In May And Go Away? Not This Year [View article]
You can find good news in the US housing market? Shadow inventory. Banks bulldozing houses. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners allowed to squat so they'll pay the property taxes for the banks. Millions of homes in negative equity position. Yikes. Them's some rose coloured glasses.
The good news is home prices are still falling. And percentage rate of home ownership continues to fall.
Possibly, retail investors have reduced their equity exposure, and are comfortable at current levels, having reduced the volatility in their overall portfolios. And they are not interested in taking on any more risk.
The fund managers have to stay invested somewhat. But are likely scared stiff. They have tried to lure in the retail investor with a low volume and careful rise. This feels like the calm before the storm. Once the fist shot is fired, all hell could break loose. Plenty of itchy trigger fingers.
Respectfully Disagreeing With Buffett's Recent Views On Gold [View article]
Great article. Gold seems to be insurance that rises on fear. Kind of like the creatures/monsters who turned fear into energy in the great animated film, Monsters.
It is not a hedge against inflation.
It is insurance that you purchase in the hope that you don't every need it. Like all insurance. I will admit to cashing in most of my gold insurance at the top last year. And then ironically turned the profits into corporate bonds that offer up income in the form of fiat paper money.
Everyone is thinking very short term trading, not investing. It's a bear market since 2000. It's a bear market from 2008 where most everybody in US equities is still underwater. There was a long decade, now we are in the second lost decade. None of the macro events of excessive debt and rebalancing of prices has been achieved aka events that would lead to end of long term bear market. Governments have only been extending these events and trying to support them. Bear markets historically last for 14-20 years or so. Nothing is different this time. So not sure why you are jumping on the author. We likely have several more years before this mess gets sorted out.
The Debt Ceiling Game of Chicken and the Markets [View article]
Has gold ever looked better? There's now an actual real reason to hold it, as many still consider it to be money. Why not, it's been money for thousands of years.
How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
Great discussion, but 'austerity' does and can work. In fact reduced spending is the only way forward. It is the only answer.
The U.S. could quickly eliminate its deficit as I outlined in this article. It could be eliminated in 4 years... Canada did it with spending cuts, with ease.
Microsoft Is Priced For PC Armageddon [View article]
Hmm? Windows sales were down 35% last month or quarter? That's their core product, of course. That is a falling industry for Microsoft. Smartphones and tablets will continue to eat away at home desktops and laptops. Who knows how far that will drop?
Microsoft is a play on hope, and that they'll find the next product or two, somewhere. imho.
I would not invest in a company with a declining core product.
Roger Nusbaum Positions For 2013: Think Long Term, Invest Globally [View article]
Great article thanks. I think many of us suffer from a home bias. Amercians are guilty, so are Canadians, including myself. International equity and currency exposure may be the investment decision of the decade for U.S. investors.
Though as you wrote, one has to look at the obvious environment of each nation. On that, I was scared off the U.S. as it looked like a house of cards. I have recentlly returned, as the housing market appears to be stabalizing. And I do think the U.S. deficit situation could be easily fixed, with a modicum of political will.
All said, long term investing and diversification makes perfect (common) sense.
The Perfect Portfolio, Evolved [View article]
You are young. You only need to take what the market is offering. You don't have to try and outsmart the market. Take what it offers and you will retire with a million or millions (if you're a good saver).
If you try to outsmart the market, history tells us that you will most likely underperform the market to a very substantial degree. And you will add years if not a decade to your working life.
If you must play, play with 10%, and hold a core portoflio of indexes. Or you can skim the indexes and hold them individually once you have a portfolio of substantial value.
If you don't like volatility (you'll find out one day), hold bonds as "shock absorbers".
"Investing ain't rocket surgery". Ha.
Stock Picking By Algorithms [View article]
Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
We experienced some very attractive growth rates.
The current government continues to eliminate waste and duplication within the federal system.
Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled [View article]
It's incredible that no one in the States is taking the situation seriously. Neither the Dems nor the Republicans have a plan that decreases the deficit in any meaningful way. The Ryan plan is useless as well.
Playing Debt Chicken may end up in a horrible accident.
A Real Dividend Growth Machine: 2012 Review [View article]
I was like you (when I was in my 30's) - I saved as much as I could. Certainly years with 30-40% plus savings rate (of after tax dollars). Many do not realize that the most important asepct of investing is saving - having money to invest. There is no get rich quick scheme. It takes time and a plan. You gotta feed the machine.
Your challenge will be can you stay the course in uncertain times? It's tough watching your portfolio holdings drop 60%, but I get the feeling that you will understand the long-term benefits of consistency, and will stick with it.
Great to see a young investor with a great plan.
Stocks: One More Flicker Before The Lights Go Out [View article]
Europe is on the road to insolvency. US is on the same train. No one has a plan to fix either yet. We could certainly extend and pretend for a decade. Or not.
Sell In May And Go Away? Not This Year [View article]
The good news is home prices are still falling. And percentage rate of home ownership continues to fall.
The Future Of The Rally: Are Technicals And Fundamentals Telling The Same Story? [View article]
Charts cannot predict political and economic events that have not happened.
From Sizzle To Simmer, Overnight [View article]
The fund managers have to stay invested somewhat. But are likely scared stiff. They have tried to lure in the retail investor with a low volume and careful rise. This feels like the calm before the storm. Once the fist shot is fired, all hell could break loose. Plenty of itchy trigger fingers.
Respectfully Disagreeing With Buffett's Recent Views On Gold [View article]
It is not a hedge against inflation.
It is insurance that you purchase in the hope that you don't every need it. Like all insurance. I will admit to cashing in most of my gold insurance at the top last year. And then ironically turned the profits into corporate bonds that offer up income in the form of fiat paper money.
Is This A Bear Market Rally? [View article]
The Debt Ceiling Game of Chicken and the Markets [View article]
How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
The U.S. could quickly eliminate its deficit as I outlined in this article. It could be eliminated in 4 years... Canada did it with spending cuts, with ease.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Microsoft Is Priced For PC Armageddon [View article]
Microsoft is a play on hope, and that they'll find the next product or two, somewhere. imho.
I would not invest in a company with a declining core product.
Roger Nusbaum Positions For 2013: Think Long Term, Invest Globally [View article]
Though as you wrote, one has to look at the obvious environment of each nation. On that, I was scared off the U.S. as it looked like a house of cards. I have recentlly returned, as the housing market appears to be stabalizing. And I do think the U.S. deficit situation could be easily fixed, with a modicum of political will.
All said, long term investing and diversification makes perfect (common) sense.