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Crawford Walker

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  • The Best Reason Not To Short Twitter [View article]
    The November 2nd edition of the Economist magazine gives an analysis of Twitter's value and possible future earnings. Their conclusion is that the company would not likely generate earnings to justify a share price above $18 in the next few years. They suggested that money could be made in the short term by buying into the current frenzy which turned out to be right on the button. But they ended by saying "But at anything above $18 each, its shares will be a poor long-term investment".
    The Economist is not an advisory newsletter. Its staff doubtless consists largely of elderly people who don't "get" social media. But they rarely comment on specific company stocks and have serious research capabilities. A word to the wise.
    Nov 13, 2013. 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Cost Of Fiscal Indecision [View article]
    As a prominent European politician recently said "we know what needs to be done, we just don't know how to do it and be re-elected"
    The reasons for this are complex but, in my opinion, include: an increasingly poorly educated electorate, gerrymandering (in the US anyway), single issue political parties, simplistic policy suggestions, and, last but not least, huge debt issues which are poorly understood.

    These are not easy times, and most of us do not give our politicians the support they need to make serious changes.
    Jan 1, 2013. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deleveraging Myth: Why The U.S. May Be Headed For A Zero Growth Future [View article]
    "The crisis is generated by lack of demand."

    How can people pay back all the money previously borrowed if they can barely make the interest payments now, with interest rates about as low as they can get. And their wages are not likely to increase.

    So surely the only possibilities are for people to default on their debts or have inflation wither them away. Neither of these options looks very desirable to me.

    I don't think a little more time is going to make much difference
    Dec 12, 2012. 01:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    Thank you, AllStreets, for a cogent and intelligent post.
    Why is the information you presented not recognized by so many of the people who comment on this forum? For a group who represent a part of the investment community, it worries me to see so little evidence of understanding of basic economics, and so little knowledge of statistics that are both important and available.
    Dec 2, 2012. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    untrusting investor
    Perhaps you are right about the aftermath of WW2, in which case borrowing more to build infrastructure would be unwise.
    That just leaves paying off the debt. In my opinion government spending in the USA is not out of line for an advanced economy so taxes will just have to go up. Corporate taxes are already high and income taxes are reasonable so the best option is probably a VAT. It works well in most countries and would not have to be very high to balance the books.
    Nov 26, 2012. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    I agree that the Fed is doing all it can, but the Fed cannot force banks to lend or companies and people to borrow.
    If the government spent more money on infrastructure and other worthwhile projects then the GDP would start to catch fire and the Fed could try to keep inflation at a rate that would monetize the debt without letting it get out of control. Like the post WW2 period. This would be challenging but it would be something the Fed could actually do rather than just creating unhelpful liquidity.
    Nov 26, 2012. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    Governments that can print their own money are not like households or companies that have to balance the books. The constraint the government has for borrowing is the rate of inflation and that is not an issue now.
    Nov 25, 2012. 01:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    Why cannot the government take on much more debt?
    During WW2 the government had way more debt and paid it off by allowing modest inflation for a decade or so.
    And the money borrowed during WW2 went to making weapons and paying soldiers overseas which seems to me more wasteful than helping the unemployed who at least spend the money they are given on goods and services in the USA.
    Nov 25, 2012. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
    There is a saying that the bond guys are always smarter than the stock guys.
    Your article and much of the comments following suggest to me that the saying is true. Those long term low interest rates probably mean something.
    Jul 26, 2012. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment