Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Crumb's Observer  

View Crumb's Observer's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • BlackBerry's Stock Jitters Can Gain Some Direction With Earnings [View article]
    BlackBerry has changed the definition of subs to include any device using BlackBerry services, even those not generating income. So BB10 users are being counted as subs.

    And yes, the way they define a subscriber is anyone using BlackBerry services, so iOS and Android BES10 users should count. I would imagine that any new iOS and Android BBM users might count also and cars like Mercedes running the latest QNX car/BB10 system eventually as well.

    I think service revenue will be under pressure until BES10 starts getting more traction and outpaces the losses of those $2 emerging market BIS users.

    For subscribers, I think Q5 will help to stabilize losses this summer quarter but the real shocker for Wall St. Will be when every BBM user gets 2 iOS or Android users to use the service. BBM subs would go from 60 million to 180 million in that case.

    BBM has probably the highest engagement level of any social media/messaging app and that is what the bears are missing. Why is that so, and why will it not be on tablets, iPad or even playbooks? Because your phone is anyways on you and BlackBerry wants to keep that high level of immediacy and engagement on BBM when it goes cross platform. The engagement level (combined with security and reliablity) is really a bug part of what separates a poor communication experience from an amazing one. The only other is issue is ubiquity, and that should be improved greatly when it goes cross platform.
    Jun 26, 2013. 11:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Security Breach Overshadows BlackBerry Quarterly [View article]
    One reason I am not that worried is that actions speak louder than words. I think more good will come from DoD's ringing endorsement of BB10 And BES10 then harm from one vague Guardian letter. Think about the cascading effect of Pentagon's approval for both the devices and the BES10 MDM solution. BB10 spreads from the most secure US industry, defence, to others like pharmacy and finance...and then so. I'm sure that "the Pentagon is using it" will go through one CIO'S head after another for years to come, long after that Guardian article is forgotten.
    Jun 20, 2013. 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Security Breach Overshadows BlackBerry Quarterly [View article]
    Wow Ziffster, for a long, you sure have a funny way expressing it. Honestly, in a couple weeks it is quite likely that people will barely remember that BBBY had anything to do with this given that
    A) The information is vague and difficult to impossible to confirm
    B) The majority of those that do know more are not going to talk
    C) For security conscious organizations there is still nothing that touches BlackBerry
    D) The Guardian's image has been tarnished (for those paying attention) by the previous sloppy and embarrassing hit piece they did on BBRY that was pulled.

    Yet here we are with an article that is 80% fear mongering, questioning the security of BES10, when we haven't the slightest clue as to the details of the supposed breach.

    I think most would agree that it is highly unlikely that a BES server had anything to do with this yet here you say things like

    "If BES security is compromised, watch for news releases from various governments downgrading the security clearance allowed for data sent using BlackBerry devices." or

    "Ask yourself:

    Can BES10 succeed in a competitive marketplace if it doesn't live up to its security claims?
    Will auto manufacturers use BBM for MTM (machine to machine) firmware updates if BBM can be hacked?...If accurate, this news could derail BlackBerry's long-term recovery"

    What "news"? Some vaguely worded impossible to confirm attack on BlackBerry's reputation?

    Seriously though this sounds like an anxious short hit piece grasping at straws. But if you are truly long BBRY and all this goes through your head every time someone comes out with unsubstantiated attack on BlackBerry, then you are in the wrong stock. Because longtime BlackBerry shareholders have been dealing with these panic attacks for 2 years now, and this is one that I am personally not loosing any sleep over.
    Jun 19, 2013. 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBM Cross Platform Means Gold For BlackBerry [View article]
    We know that there are now 12000 installed so far, but most phone sales associated with BES10 were probably corporate. The lineups were likely SMB, diehards, and exporters. I know that the place that I work was waiting to buy BB10 units until BES10.1 and the Q10 came out. BES10.1 is the gas that will accelerate BB10 unit sales.
    May 17, 2013. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BBM Cross Platform Means Gold For BlackBerry [View article]
    The longer he waits to update on Q10 sales the better as they are directly linked to BES10 adoption, which is just starting to move from the testing stage to deployment stage in many companies.
    May 15, 2013. 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why BlackBerry 10's Strong Start Does Not Mean Buy [View article]
    Wrong, Luke, wrong. PlayBook OS was their first stab at taking QNX and putting it on a mobile device. The entire exterior software layer is built with adobe Air which causes decreased performance because it, being a third party platform, could not be optimized for the hardware.

    The exterior layer of BB10 is native C+/C++ code called Cascades developed by the astonishing tribe, much much better performance. Look them up, they are very well regarded. BB10 software is proving to have significant improvements over playbook OS
    Feb 14, 2013. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10: It's Shiny, It's New, But Will It Sell? [View article]
    That is the beauty of what BBRY is doing. They are embracing the standards just like they did with mobile email. Many have done mobile email and instant messaging, but BlackBerry did it better than anyone. That is what kept them alive while they worked with QNX on BB10.

    So they will do to HTML5, LTE, bluetooth, NFC, WIFI what they did with email and BBM. They will use the standards better. They already are; look at the HTML5 performance of the BB10 browser, its best in class...heck the whole browser app itself is written in HTLML and CSS, that's gutsy. And the performance is good, Zuckerberg was wrong. HTML5 will be prime time because of BBRY, and lesser so Tizen and Firefox.
    Feb 10, 2013. 12:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why BlackBerry 10's Strong Start Does Not Mean Buy [View article]
    "that they love it so much and that when they picked up their old iphone found themselves trying to close apps like on BB10."

    I believe you are referring to the Phantom Swipe of BB10

    Phantom Swipe (Urban Dictionary)

    That frustrating moment when BlackBerry 10 users try to effortlessly swipe a non-BlackBerry touchscreen to flow between apps or screens. It quickly becomes menacing beyond all belief.
    Example: Joe forgot his Blackberry Playbook at home and grabbed his friend’s iPad to look something up. His phantom swipe made him realize just how archaic and inefficient the iPad's home button really is.
    Feb 7, 2013. 11:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    Gmom, no problem. A lot of people attribute the Apple Store's success to the products, but when you look at Ron Johnson's resume, and start to piece clues together of how he thinks you start to realize how silly and lazy analysts are for assuming that Steve Jobs was the only reason that Apple was so successful.

    I may not have done anywhere near the extensive research that Matt has, but I see the genius and desire to win that Ron Johnson has. Sometimes geniuses like Ron screw up really bad, put they pivot really fast. They're also not afraid to make the out-of-the-box changes that can lead to ground breaking improvements. All this means that the chance that Ron gets it right eventually, and gets it right really big, is quite good.

    The downside is protected by the real estate and the ability to go more promotional as Ron has demonstrated. The 2.5 Billion in liquidity (cash and credit), the non-core and even core real estate available to monotonize, the vastly improving sales per square foot and the easy comps coming up make this a no brainer for those willing to hold on for a year or two.
    Feb 6, 2013. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    "There are certain ways we have to fold different brands. There are certain ways the dress shirts have to be stacked depending on whether they are in cubbies or stacked on tables "

    That sounds like the next chapter of the book, "Apple’s Secret Employee Training Manual" below. And we all know how that turned out. Most successful business people will tell you it's the details that count when it comes to building businesses.
    Feb 5, 2013. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    We live in a world where getting information is not the problem, it is knowing which data points to pay attention to; it is the same problem that search engines have. Their are too many "AltaVista" and "Yahoo search" investors out there. To become the "Google" of investors (ie know what information is relevant and what is just noise) you have to sink hours and hours of time understanding the granular details of the companies that you invest in. In Buffet's heyday, that meant reading and rereading every company document available. It meant reading the fine print. For Peter Lynch it meant pounding the pavement, like Matt is doing, to understand what is happening on the ground. It means admitting that sometimes the angle that you researching was the wrong approach and moving quickly in another direction.

    I agree gmom's insight is very useful, especially for those that don't live near a JCP.
    Feb 5, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • London Calling On The BB10 [View article]
    You speak three languages, that's will be able to type mixing all three and use the awesome Z10 keyboard's predictive text. No need to switch settings. You can switch languages mid sentence and the Z10 predictive text will switch languages with you!
    Feb 2, 2013. 11:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Z10 Save Research In Motion? [View article]
    Hi Luke, the version of QNX running BB10 that I mentioned runs everything from 32 core Cisco routers, to slot machines, to the QNX car (62% of cars with an infotainment system), nuclear reactors, 911 dispatch systems,high speed train control, air traffic control systems, laser eye surgery and yes, many medical devices. Dan Dodge likes to say that QNX runs in environments where the cost of system failure or need of a reboot is very high. Here is a link to the 30 ways that QNX touches your life

    Sounds like you are not that convinced, so I say, continue your research and good luck whether you are long RIMM or NOK.
    Jan 29, 2013. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]

    Thanks for sharing your hard work with us retail investors. I've yet to hear a short case that is well supported with objective data, most of it is vague fear mongering.
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Z10 Save Research In Motion? [View article]
    Hi Luke,

    The version of QNX underpinning BB10 (the kernel itself, the most important part stability and security wise) is very mature and field tested being that was released in 1999. It has a very good record. The mobile software stacks built on top is the new part. But in terms of reliability, the QNX kernel it is using is unmatched in any system, desktop or embedded. The whole OS (BB10 ) was also FIPS 140 certified months ago, so that gives some clue as to the quality of OS.

    As far as OS7 being miles apart from BB10, there are alot of overlapping 'hooks': BBM (emerging markets especially), enterprise base, also people get used to the tight social integration of BB7 and don't want to lose that. Basically all the reasons that current users (especially north American ) have stuck with the current aging platform gives us some confidence that they will make the leap to BB10.
    Jan 29, 2013. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment