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Crunching Numbers

 
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  • Capstone Turbine: Be Wary Of The Records
    Yesterday, 3:16 PM CPST 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone releases a flurry or press releases.
    • Are these more hype than substance?
    • How significant are the records?
  • A Close Look At Costs Of The Sirius Subscription Model
    Tue, Aug. 19 SIRI 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius Subscriber acquisition costs may finally be decreasing.
    • A look into the calculation of SAC.
    • What is the cost to add a subscriber?
  • Update: Frontier Acquisition From AT&T
    Thu, Aug. 14 T, FTR 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Frontier receives Connecticut approvals and reschedules closing of acquisition from AT&T.
    • Opinion about improved of dividend coverage remains unchanged.
    • Acquisition was anticipated to close in second half of 2014.
  • IRS Ruling Wreaking Havoc On My Telecom Portfolio
    Wed, Aug. 13 CTL, T, VZ 13 Comments

    Summary

    • IRS ruling could impact telephone company taxes.
    • Shares of certain phone companies exhibit wild price swings.
    • As a result yields need to be re-assessed.
  • Update: Capstone Earnings
    Sat, Aug. 9 CPST 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone had a miserable Q1.
    • Capstone remains a speculative long-term buy.
    • Capstone's "lumpy" sales and margin improvement confirmed.
  • Cedar Fair Reports Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 7 FUN Comment!

    Summary

    • Attendance declines and Revenue flat through Q2; Revenue up through beginning of August.
    • Attendance no longer expected to set a new record. Cedar Fair remains a long term buy due to its attractive and increasing distribution.
    • Upper range of guidance lowered, but EBITDA growth remains on track to hit long term target a year ahead of schedule.
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations?
    Thu, Aug. 7 SIRI 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius hires top personality to penetrate Hispanic market despite allegations of sexual harassment.
    • Pairs content with low cost subscription.
    • No evidence that campaign worked.
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback
    Tue, Aug. 5 LMCA, SIRI 109 Comments

    Summary

    • For years Sirius share count has been misunderstood.
    • How many shares are there outstanding?
    • It's all about GAAP reporting.
  • Sirius XM And The Connected Car
    Sun, Aug. 3 SIRI 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Is Sirius ready to provide necessary security?
    • Revenue target appears on track.
    • Requires substantial consecutive quarterly growth for the remainder of the year.
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity
    Fri, Aug. 1 SIRI 65 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius increased guidance on last earnings call.
    • The company set several records.
    • Shares dipping to $3.30 reduces downside risk.
  • Frontier Communications Moves Another Step Towards Increasing Dividend Coverage
    Wed, Jul. 30 T, VZ, WIN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • FCC approves Frontier's acquisition of AT&T's Connecticut wireline business.
    • Improves dividend coverage and increases leverage.
    • Connecticut PURA approval is next.
  • Capstone Turbine Executive Compensation: Who Does This Board Represent?
    Tue, Jul. 29 CPST 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Last year 48% of shareholders voted against the pay packages.
    • After a dismal year, more of the same.
    • CEO to get a raise.
  • B&G Foods Disappoints - Reduces Guidance
     • Wed, Jul. 23 GIS, K, PEP 13 Comments

    Summary

    • B&G has dividend yield well above most of the competitors in its space.
    • High leverage increases risk.
    • Cost reduction plans could ensure a further dividend increase this year.
  • Sirius XM Announces Increase In Share Repurchase Program
    Wed, Jul. 16 LMCA, SIRI 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius adds another $2 billion to buyback.
    • Return to debt markets likely.
    • What's next?
  • Is It Time To Buy Sirius XM?
    Mon, Jul. 14 LMCA, SIRI 128 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock is down nearly 20% from its 52 week high.
    • Consensus estimates put the price target at $4.28.
    • Rewards may outweigh the risks.
  • Capstone Turbine Looks To Extend Poison Pill
    Tue, Jul. 8 CPST 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone looks to extend poison pill for three years.
    • Current poison pill set to expire 30 days after annual meeting.
    • Shareholders to vote on extension at annual meeting.
  • Subscriber Growth No Longer Critical To Success Of Sirius XM
    Wed, Jul. 2 SIRI 150 Comments

    Summary

    • Subscriber growth continues to decline at Sirius.
    • Growth based on new car sales appears to have stopped.
    • Used car efforts have been sufficient to extend growth.
  • Sirius XM Connects With Ford
    Mon, Jun. 23 SIRI, F 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius announces new arrangement with Ford.
    • Starts with certain 2015 models.
    • Vague press release raises questions.
  • Sirius Expands Used Car Efforts
    Wed, Jun. 18 SIRI 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius receives certification.
    • Used car reactivation efforts simplified.
    • Impact of used car program explored.
  • Capstone Turbine Earnings Reaction
    Tue, Jun. 17 CPST 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone's pre-announcement of earnings had limited surprises.
    • Uneven or "lumpy" year ahead.
    • Accounts receivable climbs, forcing equity dilution.
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications?
    Mon, Jun. 9 LMCA, SIRI 120 Comments

    Summary

    • How does multi-radio discount affect ARPU?
    • How deep is the Sirius household penetration rate?
    • How much pricing power does Sirius have?
  • B&G's CEO Stepping Down At Critical Juncture
       • Tue, Jun. 3 GIS, K, PEP 29 Comments

    Summary

    • David Wenner announced his retirement as CEO.
    • How important is Wenner?.
    • Who will succeed him?.
  • Sirius Puts Up Some Gaudy Growth Statistics
    Tue, Jun. 3 LMCA, SIRI 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius has shown long-term double digit growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.
    • What happened to the Hispanic free trial offer?
    • What are the risks?
  • Understanding The Impact Of The Sirius 7% Notes
    Tue, May. 27 LMCA, SIRI 44 Comments

    Summary

    • The notes are highly likely to be exchanged for shares by the end of 2014.
    • How will they impact the share buyback?
    • How do they affect the diluted share count?
  • How Articles Can Affect The Share Prices Of Stocks Like Sirius XM And Capstone Turbine
    Editors' Pick • Wed, May. 21 CPST, SIRI 125 Comments

    Summary

    • Can this author manipulate the share price of Sirius XM or Capstone Turbine?
    • Do articles and comments appearing on Seeking Alpha predict share price movements?
    • Are Capstone Turbine or Sirius XM attractive investments?
  • Is Capstone A Tremendous Buy?
    Editors' Pick • Mon, May. 19 CPST 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone at $1.40 may be a decent entry for the long-term investor.
    • There are still risks on a number of fronts.
    • Cash burn continues.
  • A Look At Sirius XM's Falling ARPU
    Wed, May. 14 SIRI 151 Comments

    Summary

    • ARPU has shown a sequential decline.
    • Retention and acquisition discounting appears to be rising.
    • Price increases insufficient to counter increasing discounts.
  • Capstone Turbine Deals Investors Another Blow
    Mon, May. 5 CPST 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Capstone closes fiscal year on a sour note.
    • Dilutes current shareholders through a new equity offering.
    • Shares sold at a discount of more than 20% to recent prices.
    • Company facing challenging business environment.
  • Sirius Likely To Pay Dividend To Fuel Buyback
    Fri, May. 2 CHTR, CMCSA, CMCSK 135 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius is about to borrow $1.5 billion.
    • Interest rate will be 6%.
    • Most likely use of funds is a share repurchase.
  • First Quarter Weakness Exposed At Sirius
    Tue, Apr. 29 LMCA, SIRI 179 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius, despite beating revenue forecasts, experienced a sequential revenue decline.
    • Resulting share price declines potentially increases effectiveness of buyback program.
    • Company will need to raise new debt if it is to fulfill current buyback authorization in 2014.
  • Sirius Authorized To Pay Dividend
    Thu, Apr. 24 SIRI 89 Comments

    Summary

    • Amendment To Sirius XM Revolver increases allowable leverage.
    • Increased leverage affects restricted payments, including ability to pay dividend.
    • Increase should allow share buyback to resume.
  • Sirius XM: A Pawn In John Malone's Cable Chess Match
    Wed, Apr. 23 CHTR, CMCSA, LMCA 74 Comments

    Summary

    • John Malone with 10% economic interest firmly controls Liberty Media and Sirius XM.
    • Also has significant influence at Charter Communications.
    • Sirius a likely source of funding for increasing Malone's stakes in cable.