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  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Doctor Who-

    Thanks, and a happy holiday to you and yours.

    "This stock has proven it should not be a standalone"

    I really don't know whether it should be or not, but I do know that they really have not articulated the connected car strategy very well.
    Dec 22, 2014. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    OL Blue Eyes-

    "Judge McMahon's opinion does not address the question of why no one had ever brought suit for performance royalty payments over several decades. "

    Thanks for the insights. However, while Judge McMahon's response to the request for reconsideration does not say why no one had ever brought suit, she does discuss the issue in depth (or so I thought) in the original opinion. I thought this particular paragraph began to address it, especially the first and last sentences (but what do I know):
    "Of course, the conspicuous lack of any jurisprudential history confirms that not paying royalties for public performances of sound recordings was an accepted fact of life in the broadcasting industry for the last century. So does certain testimony cited by Sirius from record industry executives, artists and others, who argued vociferously before Congress that it was unfair for them to operate in an environment in which they were paid nothing when their sound recordings were publicly performed. See, e.g., Digital Performance Rights: Hearing Before the House Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Courts and Intellectual Property on H.R. 1506, 104th
    Cong. (1995) (statement of Edward 0. Fritts, President & CEO, Nat'l Ass'n of Broadcasters), 1995 WL 371107; H. Comm. On Patents, 74th Cong., Hearings on Revision of Copyright Laws 622 (Comm. Print. 1936) statement of H.A. Huebner, representing Brunswick Record Corp. and
    Columbia Phonograph Co.); see also Sirius Summary Judgment Mem. at 9-12. That they were paid no royalties was a matter of statutory exemption under federal law; that they demanded no royalties under the common law when their product as ineligible for federal copyright protection is, in many ways, inexplicable."

    See: http://bit.ly/1uqoeQK . The above paragraph is from page 18, although I think the discussion starts a bit earlier...
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Ol Blue Eyes-

    "My first impression was that she was very rude to counsel and that this tone had no place in a court of law."

    Are you referring to her first or second ruling?
    Dec 20, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Ol Blue Eyes-

    "Isn't this a lot more than you ever wanted to know about all this?"

    No. It is rare that I get too much information when it comes to matters that may impact my investments.

    "In addition, once the suit has been started in Federal court, a party can motion the court to "remove" the case back to state court."

    Who rules on the motion? The Federal judge presiding over the case?
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    Doewap-

    "That bear was probably not Russian..."

    Perhaps you would prefer to look at this one, which is Russian and dancing: http://bit.ly/1AGmGGh

    Putin's popularity is somewhat puzzling, although it could have a lot to do with his control of the media and a willingness to imprison those that oppose him. Things can't be improving for the general population, and the bigger threat to Russia has been Saudi Arabia and its goal of curtailing fracking and other oil development efforts. The collapse of the Ruble seems more tied to the decline in oil prices than the US-led imposition of sanctions.

    Unfortunately, the uncertainty of not knowing just how far the Saudis are willing to push things or how long they intend to keep it up can't be good for CPST or many of the clean energy companies. Wish there was a way to invest in GAF...
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Roxieanne-

    "-----who knows ----"

    Lamont Cranston knows. ;-) I certainly don't.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    heady-

    "...many of the notes converted into shares could be sold. This is the possibility that IMHO was the primary reason for the decrease ..."

    To me, the timing seems off. I would expect the sell-off by the market - remember the market is forward looking - to take place going into December 1. Instead, there was a nice run-up to that date. If Sirius thought the same thing, they would also have been out of the market going into 12/1, taking some buying pressure off the price, but it ran up anyway. Add in the assumption by me. and many others, that a large portion of those notes were still hedged with short sales of the stock. The newly shares issued would be used to cover the short position, and would not enter the market as sales.

    Falling oil prices should help, not hurt, Sirius. Basically a US company. More disposable income for most, cheaper gas might result in more folks spending time in their cars... This is all incremental, but only at the margins and should not affect most folks decision.

    Sirius has not moved with the market for most of the year. Why would it start now? Jack10000 firmly believes that much of the movement is tied to Sirius turning the buyback on and off. It makes some sense, but I don't know how we can tell... SF has written that we can see the buyback by looking at the Level2 info, and thinks there is hedging and manipulation...

    Trying to figure out the reasons for the movements up and down has always made my head hurt. I can speculate about the moves, but why bother? I can just assign a future fair value, sell calls with a strike near or above that level and generate a decent return. Then I don't have to worry too much about the movements. ;-)
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    SF-

    "What has changed that would make you lighten up at $4 that did not have you lightening up last year? "

    A lot, but mostly the covered call options. I was short the $3.50's through 2013. Increased investment in December of 2013 when it looked like the $3.50's would be assigned in January of 2014 and went with a simultaneous $4 JAN 2015 covered call that brought net cost down towards $3.10. I wrote about it at the time. The premiums collapsed after the Liberty offer.

    "Or is this for a trade? "

    Trade or investment... it's been a one year at a time plan with Sirius for more than 5 years. If it became overvalued, I was always willing to sell. Total return with options, speculative holding, etc. ...

    "Do you feel the company has less potential from $4 in 2015 than it had from similar pricing in 2013?"

    Need to separate the potential for the company from the potential for my return on an investment in SIRI. The potential for total return from covered calls is much less, risk-reward has changed, too much Sirius as a percent of portfolio, too much leverage in portfolio. Would rather move funds into dividend paying stocks and other spec plays like CPST.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    Neal Barkett-

    Freakin' Liberal! It's basically a sensible idea that has been around for years as the taxes raised have declined due to decreased gas consumption (from improved MPG). Did he suggest what to do when gas starts spiking back up again? Or how he proposes to get that through congress? Or which taxes would need to be decreased as the offset in order to get it through congress?
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    hooligan01-

    "It seems like a fair amount of people on this site do not und

    Unfortunately that's true. However, P/E is not always the best way to measure value either since it tells us how the stock has performed in the past. The best way to value a company is to look ahead at the expected future stream of its after-tax net cash flows and take the present value of those amounts along with the present value of some terminal valuation. I have seen only one article on SA that has done that for Sirius, and it had a few too many errors to be useful.

    The three major issues with P/E for Sirius is that it ignores the following important facts:
    1. The company has significant NOLs that will shield the company from cash taxes for the next several years. This is not to be confused with the tax figures shown on the P&L.
    2. The company has significant Depreciation and Amortization over the next several years - more than $250 million/year - that is a non-cash expense and not representative of the cap-ex requirements for the rest of the decade.
    3. P/E uses the past average of diluted shares rather than the actual number of shares outstanding. With the share count coming down from aggressive share buybacks, the past average has been overstated and will be misstated in the future.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    SXM_Permabuul4Life-

    Glad you enjoyed it and you're welcome.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Shane-

    First, let me thank you for your service. Second, let me state that despite much of the spending on military contracts being wasteful, the spending on personnel is a bargain, and the treatment of veterans is shameful.

    That aside, if you have done your "freaking home work ", then your comments would be much more constructive and beneficial to the SA community (a community you have also chosen to become a member of) if you shared ANY of the results of that homework rather posting short sentences that add nothing meaningful.

    Investing does not present the same danger as a battlefield where the first casualty of war is the truth. Decisions do not NEED to be made on the fly. Instead, we have a lot of time to gather intel, plan many of the moves well in advance, modify those plans as more intel comes in and act on the plan - whether it is to advance, hold the position or withdraw - when the time is right. If we screw up that timing, we may lose out on a few bucks, but we will still be around to invest another day.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Stephen-

    "you can't give more than you have..."

    Sure you can. You can buy on margin, although at $1.25 it probably wasn't marginable. Still, Jill could have taken an IOU. ;-)
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    siri2014-

    "Maybe I did read/interpret something a little different than you meant to say..."

    You're welcome. Not a big problem either way since it did give me a chance to clarify my view.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Stephen-

    "2015 should still be a rapid pace buyback year with additional debt usage now that they have room to borrow a good amount more."

    This really wasn't too much of an issue after Q3. At that time they had Adjusted EBITDA of $1,412.5 million for the past 4 quarters. At a multiple of 4x, that would have allowed debt to climb to $5,650 million. That means they could have borrowed another $850 million... even a round billion if the extra $150 million was designated to pay down the revolver. Obviously it can go higher now with the $0.5 billion off the books, but it wasn't like they were hampered before. It's a bit strange that they have waited so long, especially the way rates have come down.

    I wonder what would happen to the Jan 2016 $4 or $4.50 call prices if $4 is reached.... Anyway, if than happens, it would be time for me to lighten up.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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