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Cullen Roche

 
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  • Yes, The Business Cycle Is Real [View article]
    David,

    The fact that an economy fluctuates does not mean it has mean reverting tendencies. That's the point I am making. The idea of cyclicality implies that the system has a mean reverting tendency, but the system could very well get shocked into environments that mean it doesn't necessarily mean revert.

    So, on further inspection, I think Noah Smith could be on to something here although I suspect that he would say the fluctuations are largely random whereas I believe they are deterministic and foreseeable.

    I hope that clarifies.
    Dec 25, 2014. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Business Cycle Is Real [View article]
    Hi David,

    This was a sloppy article on my part. I am not proud of it. Business cycle theory is not my area of expertise and I should have put more thought into this piece before I wrote it.

    I actually agree with Noah Smith's primary premise that the idea of "cycles" could be misleading. That is, maybe it's better not to think of the economy in terms of mean reverting "cycles" and instead think of it as a multiple equilibrium environment with causal fluctuations.

    My article should be titled, Economic Fluctuations are Deterministic and That's What Matters....

    Happy holidays everyone.
    Dec 24, 2014. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economists In Glass Houses Throwing Stones [View article]
    Sorry. Must be a link error. I started saying silver was in a bubble in the low $40s.

    http://bit.ly/1AxisB1
    Dec 5, 2014. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fake Growth, Fake Money, Fake Jobs, Fake Financial Stability, Fake Inflation Numbers? [View article]
    Derryl,

    Your comment is correct. My view (MR) attempts to simply describe the monetary system as it is. I have my disagreements about how it is constructed, etc, but I try to provide an objective perspective of how things ARE as opposed to how I think THEY SHOULD BE.

    Best,

    Cullen
    Nov 7, 2014. 05:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fake Growth, Fake Money, Fake Jobs, Fake Financial Stability, Fake Inflation Numbers? [View article]
    I was an MMT advocate for about a 12 month period back in 2010 when I first learned of it. Pretty eye opening stuff, but I have since developed a framework that I personally believe is superior. I've actually been pretty critical of MMT over the years.

    http://bit.ly/113deRE

    Sorry to hear that you think my writing has deteriorated. I guess I need to work on that. :-)
    Nov 7, 2014. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Deposit:Loan Discrepancy And Why It's Not Scary [View article]
    HI Guys,

    Yes, you're right. The axis of the chart is wrong. The chart should just be labeled excess deposits relative to loans.

    Thanks for pointing that out.
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trade That Led To The Demise Of PIMCO Total Return [View article]
    Are you calling me fat? :-)

    I don't think it's controversial to say that someone like Bill Gross doesn't necessarily understand macroeconomics as well as some other people do. I don't understand it as well as some other people do. Does it make me arrogant to point out something that should be obvious if there's a good lesson in there?

    And yes, I do want you to buy my book.

    Is that less subtle? :-)
    Sep 29, 2014. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stupidest (And Most Prominent) QE Chart In The World [View article]
    Mike Norman is an advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). MR is Monetary Realism. We agree on some things, but vehemently disagree on some other things. MMTers are generally focused on govt centric policies such as fiscal policy and their govt Job Guarantee. MR just focuses on how the system is designed.

    I don't agree with MMT's description of the system. They believe it's all govt centric. I think that's totally wrong. Norman and I are not working from the same premise by any means....
    Dec 28, 2013. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SSA: Real Median Wages Up 14% Since 1990, Flat Since 2001 [View article]
    David, I mentioned, explicitly, that the median real wage hasn't moved in 12 years. So I don't know what you think is wrong with this piece? You seem to be saying the same thing I said. Maybe you misread my chart or it is poorly labelled.
    Nov 12, 2013. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Well, I've been having these debates with people for 10 years so it's not just 3 years. And my guess is that your predictions pre-date your blog archive in 2010, but I guess we can't prove that.

    Anyhow, I guess we get to "just wait" a little while longer and when we have this exact same discussion in 2 years you'll say the same exact thing....

    Oh well. Take care.
    Oct 30, 2013. 01:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Vincent,

    I am fine admitting that some of the operational realities described in MMT are wrong. We created MR because nothing like MR existed before it. So you're saying that being an MMTer for a brief while discredits me because I've transitioned to a position that didn't exist? That's like learning something new, admitting your old position was wrong, establishing your new position and then claiming this evolution of thought is backwards. That's called learning. That doesn't discredit me. It proves I am open minded enough to learn from past mistakes, build on them and establish superior positions.

    You seem like a very nice guy and I don't like to argue with you, but you have proven no ability to evolve from your past errors. Everyone gets stuff wrong. But most mistakes are really just lessons. They're only mistakes when you fail to learn from them. In my opinion, your persistent belief in hyperinflation is a mistake.

    Take care.
    Oct 26, 2013. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    You know what debunks your position on hyperinflation? When you predicted hyperinflation on my website 2.5 years ago and stated that it would happen within 2 years. We've been going back and forth for years now Vincent. I've been debunking your position for years. You just haven't been listening.

    http://bit.ly/1d55dfX
    Oct 25, 2013. 01:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    To me, it's actually not about winning a monetary bet on stocks and bonds versus gold. It's about framing a certain world view. I think people should bet on people and not rocks. When you bet on gold you're basically placing a financial bet that the paper money system will fall apart or won't work for us. I don't think that is true. And I think the fiat money system has served the USA extremely well for 100 years +. When I engage in that system I want to use my access to the monetary system to hopefully make it a better place by investing in people, progress and real things. Putting all your savings in gold is a bet that progress and people will fail. I just hate that mentality. Call me a naive optimist. Oh well. Maybe I am an idiot who doesn't know any better.
    Oct 24, 2013. 05:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Good question. Why do people believe in different Gods? Why do some people believe in no God? Why do some societies believe in paper money? Why do some societies believe in rock money? Money's a strange thing. It's largely an accounting function that exists because we create it in our minds. It's based on belief.

    Maybe the central bank is just hedging its bets in case people decide to stop believing in paper money? I don't know to be honest. But that's my guess.

    Personally, I think gold is money. I just think it's a bad type of money because it's not a very convenient medium of exchange.
    Oct 24, 2013. 05:19 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    The purpose of these articles (this one was simply a response to a previous one) was to show that allocating one's entire portfolio into gold and silver is silly.

    Anyhow, readers on SA don't always see the running dialogue that occurs on my site so the article is being viewed out of context. I also don't post articles here. SA feeds them off my site as they choose so I don't have any say in what gets posted or not.

    Sorry if some people misinterpreted my overarching point. I didn't intend for this to come off as a whiny rant, which is what it looks like on its own....
    Oct 24, 2013. 03:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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