The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]
Bill Gross got QE1 horribly wrong and he's been rumored as being short or out of UST's since early May when they bottomed. I believe this is due to his lack of understanding of these operations.
There is no such thing as debt monetization in the USA. You might be interested in this piece which elaborates:
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
Hey everyone,
I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....
I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
I covered today for those interested. The puts finished today up 90%, but I made far less than that.
Personally, I am happy being out of the trade even though it was a small position and didn't move the portfolio needle that much. As I've stated before, I think it's best not to mess with bubbles.
Good luck to everyone in the silver markets. As I said before, I think you're gambling on either side, but I hope your gamble turns out to be the right one. For me, I got lucky with today's outlier move. And yes, I will be the first one to admit that it was luck.
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
SA altered the article. I don't know why they did. The article is different as posted on pragcap. It's kind of irritating that they think it's okay to just completely alter the content of an article without my approval....In fact, it's ridiculous that they would even consider doing it....
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
If you actually remove your rose colored glasses and read the article you'll notice that I didn't claim to predict anything. In fact, I've been pretty clear about the fact that I don't believe anyone can predict market action within a bubble.
And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.
So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
Fed Contributing Directly to Speculative Behavior [View article]
I have not been bearish about commodities. And in fact, I've stated for several years now that gold is part of the "perfect hedge" I have explained this position several times over the years.
In May 2010 I highlighted an interesting trade as a hedge against the Euro crisis:
“A fascinating trade is developing in treasuries and the gold market. We have this interesting correlation between treasuries and gold prices in recent months. As the Euro worries continue to develop both gold and treasuries have become safe havens. Of course, this has shocked the inflationistas of the world – many of whom are short treasuries and long gold, however, in this world of continuing low inflation treasuries continue to perform just fine. Aside from the firm fundamentals (U.S. government debt is not a concern and inflation remains low while the fundamentals for gold remain quite constructive) what’s become so interesting in this environment is that gold is acting more and more like a currency. In the long-run I feel as though this is entirely unjustified as gold will never serve as a reserve currency ever again. But we have what I believe is a unique window of opportunity here to buy both gold and treasuries as risk asset alternatives. It’s a beautiful hedge in a world that is grappling with the potential death of a fiat currency (the Euro) and continuing inflation or deflation. I don’t particularly like either treasuries or gold at this exact moment, but I will be a tempted buyer of both on any pull-backs. If the Euro crisis hits Defcon 1 (something I say is a relatively high probability event in the next 24 months) then gold and treasuries will soar.”
What makes this trade so interesting (still) is that they are the favored instruments of deflationistas and inflationistas. I continue to believe that we are in an environment where disinflation will continue and the risk of deflation will remain higher than hyperinflation. But that doesn’t mean gold can’t perform well in this environment. In fact, I have long said that gold is likely in the midst of an irrational bubble. The argument is simple – as fears of sovereign debt remain investors will continue to demand gold as a hedge against fiat currencies. What’s interesting here is that there is no solvency risk in the USA therefore we need not fear bond vigilantes in the USA. We truly are not Greece. Our monetary system is simply not the same. So, as long as the balance sheet recession continues in the western world the deflationary threat will remain and treasury yields will remain low, but the bid in gold will also remain as investors interpret the Euro crisis as a failure of fiat money.
Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
My guess is that most Austerians aren't against lower taxes. So lower our taxes. I've been a proponent of tax cuts for years. If you don't like govt spending (as I don't) then put the money in the hands of the public via lower taxes. I don't care how the b/s recession is offset. All I know is that if we don't do it the pvt sector will sink into a debt hole again and recession will ensue.
That doesn't help us get over the b/s recession. It only worsens the issue.
Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
The private sector is de-leveraging. How does that equate to eating more?
If you want the govt to stop spending or cutting taxes then you have to admit that recession is on the horizon. And if you want to discuss the merits of recession then we need to be having a very different discussion.
I am short via OTM puts. It's not a big bet, but if it hits I'll make a little change. I know I am trying to wrangle with a freight train here so trust me - I am not betting the farm on this one....no way Jose....
My blog is a runnig dialogue of my work. When SA picks a single piece that is non-descript I hope you will keep that in mind. I have described in the past why I believe silver is looking bubbly. You might be interested in this:
I don't control what SA posts from my site so please keep that in mind when reading here. If you don't visit pragcap you're likely not getting the full story.
If you're familiar with my work you know that my position on bubbles is fairly simple - they are unpredictable and best not to be messed with either long or short.
I have been discussing the gold/US treasuries combo as a hedge for years now so I have not been short precious metals by a long shot. I quite literally implemented a silver short two days ago and it's a very meager put position that will either be a home run or a very small loss.
Don't worry, I am not aggressively shorting your favorite asset class...It's nothing personal.
I run a multi strategy (4) macro fund so my strategies are pretty complex. There is no specific allocation. I know that's vague and unhelpful, but I don't really discuss my specific investment strategies anywhere on the net.
Have a nice weekend and thanks for allowing me to clarify.
I'd love for you to show me where I said I was betting against silver. You won't find it because it doesn't exist until today. And while you claim to be a regular reader, the truth is that regular readers of my site know I have been very bullish about gold and precious metals....
Multi-year bearish opinion? Where have I ever said I was bearish on silver? I've owned PRPFX in a retirement account for years now and the fund is heavily invested in silver. I have no idea why detractors feel the need to create these myths when they have no idea how someone else's portfolio is constructed.
I have nothing against silver. If it craters I'll likely lose money on the whole because my retirement accounts will decline. I know people are defensive about precious metals, but come on....get over the love affair. It's an asset class like any other.
The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]
pragcap.com/?s=krugman...
The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]
There is no such thing as debt monetization in the USA. You might be interested in this piece which elaborates:
pragcap.com/pomo-flip-...
Best,
CR
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....
I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.
Best,
Cullen
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
Personally, I am happy being out of the trade even though it was a small position and didn't move the portfolio needle that much. As I've stated before, I think it's best not to mess with bubbles.
Good luck to everyone in the silver markets. As I said before, I think you're gambling on either side, but I hope your gamble turns out to be the right one. For me, I got lucky with today's outlier move. And yes, I will be the first one to admit that it was luck.
Best to all.
Cullen
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.
So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
Fed Contributing Directly to Speculative Behavior [View article]
The Jan 9th article was a video between a gold bull and bear. Not my opinion.
The Nov 4th article said the Fed was blowing bubbles. I never stated a bull or bear position in the article.
The only commodity I have been vocally bearish about is silver and that is a VERY recent development....
Fed Contributing Directly to Speculative Behavior [View article]
In May 2010 I highlighted an interesting trade as a hedge against the Euro crisis:
“A fascinating trade is developing in treasuries and the gold market. We have this interesting correlation between treasuries and gold prices in recent months. As the Euro worries continue to develop both gold and treasuries have become safe havens. Of course, this has shocked the inflationistas of the world – many of whom are short treasuries and long gold, however, in this world of continuing low inflation treasuries continue to perform just fine. Aside from the firm fundamentals (U.S. government debt is not a concern and inflation remains low while the fundamentals for gold remain quite constructive) what’s become so interesting in this environment is that gold is acting more and more like a currency. In the long-run I feel as though this is entirely unjustified as gold will never serve as a reserve currency ever again. But we have what I believe is a unique window of opportunity here to buy both gold and treasuries as risk asset alternatives. It’s a beautiful hedge in a world that is grappling with the potential death of a fiat currency (the Euro) and continuing inflation or deflation. I don’t particularly like either treasuries or gold at this exact moment, but I will be a tempted buyer of both on any pull-backs. If the Euro crisis hits Defcon 1 (something I say is a relatively high probability event in the next 24 months) then gold and treasuries will soar.”
What makes this trade so interesting (still) is that they are the favored instruments of deflationistas and inflationistas. I continue to believe that we are in an environment where disinflation will continue and the risk of deflation will remain higher than hyperinflation. But that doesn’t mean gold can’t perform well in this environment. In fact, I have long said that gold is likely in the midst of an irrational bubble. The argument is simple – as fears of sovereign debt remain investors will continue to demand gold as a hedge against fiat currencies. What’s interesting here is that there is no solvency risk in the USA therefore we need not fear bond vigilantes in the USA. We truly are not Greece. Our monetary system is simply not the same. So, as long as the balance sheet recession continues in the western world the deflationary threat will remain and treasury yields will remain low, but the bid in gold will also remain as investors interpret the Euro crisis as a failure of fiat money.
Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
That doesn't help us get over the b/s recession. It only worsens the issue.
Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
If you want the govt to stop spending or cutting taxes then you have to admit that recession is on the horizon. And if you want to discuss the merits of recession then we need to be having a very different discussion.
Silver to the Moon [View article]
Silver to the Moon [View article]
My blog is a runnig dialogue of my work. When SA picks a single piece that is non-descript I hope you will keep that in mind. I have described in the past why I believe silver is looking bubbly. You might be interested in this:
pragcap.com/silver-pri...
I don't control what SA posts from my site so please keep that in mind when reading here. If you don't visit pragcap you're likely not getting the full story.
Silver to the Moon [View article]
If you're familiar with my work you know that my position on bubbles is fairly simple - they are unpredictable and best not to be messed with either long or short.
I have been discussing the gold/US treasuries combo as a hedge for years now so I have not been short precious metals by a long shot. I quite literally implemented a silver short two days ago and it's a very meager put position that will either be a home run or a very small loss.
Don't worry, I am not aggressively shorting your favorite asset class...It's nothing personal.
I run a multi strategy (4) macro fund so my strategies are pretty complex. There is no specific allocation. I know that's vague and unhelpful, but I don't really discuss my specific investment strategies anywhere on the net.
Have a nice weekend and thanks for allowing me to clarify.
Silver to the Moon [View article]
Silver to the Moon [View article]
I have nothing against silver. If it craters I'll likely lose money on the whole because my retirement accounts will decline. I know people are defensive about precious metals, but come on....get over the love affair. It's an asset class like any other.