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Cullen Roche

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  • The Misery Index Approaches New Highs [View article]
    The gov techno magic school. That's a good one. Actually, I am just accepting the realities of how our monetary system works. I am not in favor of just printing money to fill in holes. But I recognize that the monopoly of supplier must actually supply us with the currency that they require us to transact in.

    I've been a proponent of them doing that through lower taxes. I would encourage you to read this and try to really be open minded about it. My guess is that we're not as far apart in our thinking as you might believe:
    Jun 22 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Still Doesn't Get It [View article]
    I very much agree that cost push inflation via oil shortages could damage the US economy. But it wont bankrupt us. It will just cause crushing inflation/recession that reallocates spending.
    Jun 14 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Still Doesn't Get It [View article]
    Rejection of the sovereign's currency is hyperinflation. We're not even close to being there.

    And if you don't want your USD's I can forward you my address so you can send them to me. :-)
    Jun 14 10:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Still Doesn't Get It [View article]

    I don't think you fully understand my thinking. You might want to review this before shrugging me off as crazy while defending a man who has proven time and time again that he knows very little.
    Jun 14 10:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]

    100% right. This is why I've said that QE can be marginally deflationary. We are swapping out 2% paper with 0.25% paper and therefore reducing the pvt sector's net interest income.
    Jun 13 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]
    Search the archives at pragcap. You'll find the only times I discuss Krugman is when I talk about how wrong he is.
    Jun 13 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Trek Back to Sustainable Debt Levels [View article]
    Bill Gross got QE1 horribly wrong and he's been rumored as being short or out of UST's since early May when they bottomed. I believe this is due to his lack of understanding of these operations.

    There is no such thing as debt monetization in the USA. You might be interested in this piece which elaborates:


    Jun 13 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    Hey everyone,

    I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....

    I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.


    May 2 05:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    I covered today for those interested. The puts finished today up 90%, but I made far less than that.

    Personally, I am happy being out of the trade even though it was a small position and didn't move the portfolio needle that much. As I've stated before, I think it's best not to mess with bubbles.

    Good luck to everyone in the silver markets. As I said before, I think you're gambling on either side, but I hope your gamble turns out to be the right one. For me, I got lucky with today's outlier move. And yes, I will be the first one to admit that it was luck.

    Best to all.

    May 2 05:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    SA altered the article. I don't know why they did. The article is different as posted on pragcap. It's kind of irritating that they think it's okay to just completely alter the content of an article without my approval....In fact, it's ridiculous that they would even consider doing it....
    May 2 05:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    If you actually remove your rose colored glasses and read the article you'll notice that I didn't claim to predict anything. In fact, I've been pretty clear about the fact that I don't believe anyone can predict market action within a bubble.

    And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.

    So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
    May 1 11:43 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Contributing Directly to Speculative Behavior [View article]
    The Feb 11th article was from Nomura research. Not my opinion.

    The Jan 9th article was a video between a gold bull and bear. Not my opinion.

    The Nov 4th article said the Fed was blowing bubbles. I never stated a bull or bear position in the article.

    The only commodity I have been vocally bearish about is silver and that is a VERY recent development....
    Apr 30 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Contributing Directly to Speculative Behavior [View article]
    I have not been bearish about commodities. And in fact, I've stated for several years now that gold is part of the "perfect hedge" I have explained this position several times over the years.

    In May 2010 I highlighted an interesting trade as a hedge against the Euro crisis:

    “A fascinating trade is developing in treasuries and the gold market. We have this interesting correlation between treasuries and gold prices in recent months. As the Euro worries continue to develop both gold and treasuries have become safe havens. Of course, this has shocked the inflationistas of the world – many of whom are short treasuries and long gold, however, in this world of continuing low inflation treasuries continue to perform just fine. Aside from the firm fundamentals (U.S. government debt is not a concern and inflation remains low while the fundamentals for gold remain quite constructive) what’s become so interesting in this environment is that gold is acting more and more like a currency. In the long-run I feel as though this is entirely unjustified as gold will never serve as a reserve currency ever again. But we have what I believe is a unique window of opportunity here to buy both gold and treasuries as risk asset alternatives. It’s a beautiful hedge in a world that is grappling with the potential death of a fiat currency (the Euro) and continuing inflation or deflation. I don’t particularly like either treasuries or gold at this exact moment, but I will be a tempted buyer of both on any pull-backs. If the Euro crisis hits Defcon 1 (something I say is a relatively high probability event in the next 24 months) then gold and treasuries will soar.”

    What makes this trade so interesting (still) is that they are the favored instruments of deflationistas and inflationistas. I continue to believe that we are in an environment where disinflation will continue and the risk of deflation will remain higher than hyperinflation. But that doesn’t mean gold can’t perform well in this environment. In fact, I have long said that gold is likely in the midst of an irrational bubble. The argument is simple – as fears of sovereign debt remain investors will continue to demand gold as a hedge against fiat currencies. What’s interesting here is that there is no solvency risk in the USA therefore we need not fear bond vigilantes in the USA. We truly are not Greece. Our monetary system is simply not the same. So, as long as the balance sheet recession continues in the western world the deflationary threat will remain and treasury yields will remain low, but the bid in gold will also remain as investors interpret the Euro crisis as a failure of fiat money.
    Apr 28 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
    My guess is that most Austerians aren't against lower taxes. So lower our taxes. I've been a proponent of tax cuts for years. If you don't like govt spending (as I don't) then put the money in the hands of the public via lower taxes. I don't care how the b/s recession is offset. All I know is that if we don't do it the pvt sector will sink into a debt hole again and recession will ensue.

    That doesn't help us get over the b/s recession. It only worsens the issue.
    Apr 26 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
    The private sector is de-leveraging. How does that equate to eating more?

    If you want the govt to stop spending or cutting taxes then you have to admit that recession is on the horizon. And if you want to discuss the merits of recession then we need to be having a very different discussion.
    Apr 26 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment