Technically, I wasn't at the beach. I was on a cliff overlooking the beach. So your question should be: "what kind of douche wears a suit to a cliff overlooking the beach". To that, I do not have a great answer. :-) Sorry.
The Fed Is Not Monetizing U.S. Government Debt [View article]
LT,
I actually respond a fair amount on SA. Unfortunately, I do most of the commenting on my own site where the readership is more intellectually engaging, courteous and interested in real debate and not childish remarks such as your comment about my level of common sense.
Unfortunately, SA is not a friendly place to engage readership. Readers are more interested in argument and stone throwing than real productive debate. I don't write these articles for my health. I write them because I am passionate about these issues and feel that there is a disturbing misunderstanding with regards to our monetary system. So, if you can't understand why I don't respond to comments like "drivel" or "Mr. Roche has as little common sense as the Chairman" then pardon me. I am not here to argue. I am here to help people better understand these very important issues.
QE is an open market op just like they perform at the short end. It does not change the amount of money in the system. Bernanke has explained this on several occasions. It can alter portfolios and psychology, but it does not add net new money. When you buy govt bonds you exchange cash for a bond certificate. The govt gets your cash, you get a certificate. Was there a change in the net financial assets? Of course not. It creates a liability of the govt and an asset for you.
The spending (to even allow govt bond purchases) comes first....The issuance of bonds in our system serves only as a reserve drain. And it's a drain that is 100% unnecessary now that we are paying interest on reserves.
Sorry for the brutal honesty above, but I just don't have the time to deal with petty BS. It's not productive in any sort of way. And what this country needs right now is a productive and honest debate on these matters.....Not stone throwing and childish banter. That only detracts from the important matters at hand.
PragCap takes apart David Einhorn's U.S.-is-Greece argument piece by piece, lambasting "inflationistas" who refuse to see that the "price action in markets" makes it clear that there is no inflation and that deflation is the bigger worry. His greatest fear is that "we are talking ourselves into a depression and articles like [Einhorn's] only compound that fear." [View news story]
Well let's just lift the veil then. My name is Cullen Roche which is in plain sight for anyone who uses Google with any regularity or has any curiosity. You can find my full bio in the SA author section.
I am not multiple people and my website is only anonymous because it was never intended to be so widely read. Regardless, it is only anonymous to those who don't know how to Google....
I have no agenda. I am not pushing a product or company. I am not raising money. I am not pushing positions. I am just another frustrated citizen who feels that we have been failed by our leaders....The website is my outlet....
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
If you actually remove your rose colored glasses and read the article you'll notice that I didn't claim to predict anything. In fact, I've been pretty clear about the fact that I don't believe anyone can predict market action within a bubble.
And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.
So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
I've criticized and blamed Clinton's surplus for much of the current economic malaise so viewing this article thru your political biases will lead you astray.
This isn't about politics. It's about good economics. Clinton's economics were piss poor in the late 90's and Ryan's are piss poor today. If you want to make it a political argument then that's your bias. Not mine.
What if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor? [View article]
Doesn't seem like you actually read the article.....I've been using a short-term tactical approach because of my macro bearish perspective. You're taking the comments out of context. You're taking me to task for sitting out the first three month of 2009 and then calling the market bottom the day before it occurred and selling into a 10%+ rip?
I'm not claiming to have been bullish all the way since March. I think I made that pretty clear in the piece.....That hasn't been my approach and any regular read of mine knows it....
Apple Earnings Make a Mockery of the System - Again [View article]
This is not an attack on Apple so please don't misconstrue the commentary. Perhaps the title is a bit misleading....The point of the piece is to show that the analysts are not adding value via their research. They are essentially part of the sales team that helps generate attention for a product their company wants to sell. We can debate the merits of that, but I think it's pretty clear that most analysts are not very good at predicting anything and therefore we have to call into question their purpose. If they are just helping sell stuff then that's fine. It should be disclosed as such. But pawning these people off as "experts" creates a conflict of interest and is very misleading.
I think Apple is a fantastic company for what it's worth....This story has nothing to do with them really....
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
Hey everyone,
I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....
I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
SA altered the article. I don't know why they did. The article is different as posted on pragcap. It's kind of irritating that they think it's okay to just completely alter the content of an article without my approval....In fact, it's ridiculous that they would even consider doing it....
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
The point is that the future burden from current spending arises only to the extent that govt spending is in excess of productive capacity. There is no such thing as having to pay off our debts. Our grandchildren won't receive a bill just like you don't receive a bill from the US govt to pay off WW2. You might have to pay marginally higher taxes in the future as the country grows and our needs expand, but all in all the median tax rates in the USA have been declining for 30+ years so the argument that we are paying off our grandparent's WW2 burden or whatever is nonsensical. The truth is, our standard of living is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than our grandparent's SOL was.
So, there is no such thing as the govt paying off its debt. The idea is nonsensical. The US govt has expanded its debt every year since its founding. That's how a sovereign currency issuer allows its users to transact or progress in the currency that they require us to transact in.
I hope that sheds some light on it. If not, you might want to read my treatise on the monetary system:
Dear Paul Krugman: You Do Not Understand Modern Monetary Theory [View article]
I hope this will be the case. I work in an industry where people get letters behind their name just so they can sell stuff to people. Most of these people are not qualified to discuss 90% of the products they sell yet these distinctions somehow give them "credibility". Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but respect for our teachers and professors. They are, arguably, the most important people in our world today, but a degree does not always qualify one as infallible or intelligent. If you want evidence I suggest you study the body of neo-liberal work that has helped to cause this great economic crisis.
I've worked hard in my life. I've achieved quite a bit in a short period of time. Could I have spent more time in school? Yes. I could have. But I chose to forego that route for other options. If you want to hold that against me then that is your choice. I respect your opinion.
If you find that my work does not stand on its own merit then I hope you'll confront me and challenge me about it. Perhaps we can all learn together. After all, I am not here to push some agenda. I am not here selling subscriptions to a service or newsletters or investment advice. I started writing for one reason only - I saw a great flaw in our economic system during the crisis and felt that I could contribute to the education of all. In end, the real solution to any great economic crisis is knowledge and understanding.
But I hope you will not attempt to denigrate me just because I did not spend 5 years in school obtaining a degree that will never be able to replace the previous 5 years I have spent learning by doing.
Has the Rally Already Exhausted Itself? [View article]
Rick,
How can you not call it a bubble? Global housing bubble, multiple stock bubbles (China, India), a massive debt bubble, oil bubble.....Smells like a duck, quacks like a duck....
Tough crowd in here today. The two main criticisms of the piece seem to be the actual definition of a bubble and the speculative nature of the article.
Of course these are long-term trends. Every bubble that has ever occurred happens because of some long-term trend that results in a blow-off top. The housing bubble was the result of the long-term trend of low interest rates and easy credit. The Nasdaq bubble was the result of the long-term trend in technological innovation.
As for the speculative nature of the article - of course it's speculative. I am writing about bubbles for heaven's sake. Nowhere do I say it is prudent to put all your eggs in one basket or that investing in these ideas with you hard earned cash is a great idea. In fact, I say specifically that diversification is the name of the game if you're aiming for some bubble action.
That should clarify most people's concerns. Thanks for reading.
Gold Is Not An 'Investment' [View article]
The Fed Is Not Monetizing U.S. Government Debt [View article]
I actually respond a fair amount on SA. Unfortunately, I do most of the commenting on my own site where the readership is more intellectually engaging, courteous and interested in real debate and not childish remarks such as your comment about my level of common sense.
Unfortunately, SA is not a friendly place to engage readership. Readers are more interested in argument and stone throwing than real productive debate. I don't write these articles for my health. I write them because I am passionate about these issues and feel that there is a disturbing misunderstanding with regards to our monetary system. So, if you can't understand why I don't respond to comments like "drivel" or "Mr. Roche has as little common sense as the Chairman" then pardon me. I am not here to argue. I am here to help people better understand these very important issues.
QE is an open market op just like they perform at the short end. It does not change the amount of money in the system. Bernanke has explained this on several occasions. It can alter portfolios and psychology, but it does not add net new money. When you buy govt bonds you exchange cash for a bond certificate. The govt gets your cash, you get a certificate. Was there a change in the net financial assets? Of course not. It creates a liability of the govt and an asset for you.
The spending (to even allow govt bond purchases) comes first....The issuance of bonds in our system serves only as a reserve drain. And it's a drain that is 100% unnecessary now that we are paying interest on reserves.
Sorry for the brutal honesty above, but I just don't have the time to deal with petty BS. It's not productive in any sort of way. And what this country needs right now is a productive and honest debate on these matters.....Not stone throwing and childish banter. That only detracts from the important matters at hand.
PragCap takes apart David Einhorn's U.S.-is-Greece argument piece by piece, lambasting "inflationistas" who refuse to see that the "price action in markets" makes it clear that there is no inflation and that deflation is the bigger worry. His greatest fear is that "we are talking ourselves into a depression and articles like [Einhorn's] only compound that fear." [View news story]
I am not multiple people and my website is only anonymous because it was never intended to be so widely read. Regardless, it is only anonymous to those who don't know how to Google....
I have no agenda. I am not pushing a product or company. I am not raising money. I am not pushing positions. I am just another frustrated citizen who feels that we have been failed by our leaders....The website is my outlet....
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.
So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
This isn't about politics. It's about good economics. Clinton's economics were piss poor in the late 90's and Ryan's are piss poor today. If you want to make it a political argument then that's your bias. Not mine.
What if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor? [View article]
What if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor? [View article]
pragcap.com/coming-thi...
I'm not claiming to have been bullish all the way since March. I think I made that pretty clear in the piece.....That hasn't been my approach and any regular read of mine knows it....
Apple Earnings Make a Mockery of the System - Again [View article]
I think Apple is a fantastic company for what it's worth....This story has nothing to do with them really....
The Reason to Be Scared in the Market Now [View article]
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....
I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.
Best,
Cullen
Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
So, there is no such thing as the govt paying off its debt. The idea is nonsensical. The US govt has expanded its debt every year since its founding. That's how a sovereign currency issuer allows its users to transact or progress in the currency that they require us to transact in.
I hope that sheds some light on it. If not, you might want to read my treatise on the monetary system:
pragcap.com/resources/...
Best,
Cullen
Dear Paul Krugman: You Do Not Understand Modern Monetary Theory [View article]
I've worked hard in my life. I've achieved quite a bit in a short period of time. Could I have spent more time in school? Yes. I could have. But I chose to forego that route for other options. If you want to hold that against me then that is your choice. I respect your opinion.
If you find that my work does not stand on its own merit then I hope you'll confront me and challenge me about it. Perhaps we can all learn together. After all, I am not here to push some agenda. I am not here selling subscriptions to a service or newsletters or investment advice. I started writing for one reason only - I saw a great flaw in our economic system during the crisis and felt that I could contribute to the education of all. In end, the real solution to any great economic crisis is knowledge and understanding.
But I hope you will not attempt to denigrate me just because I did not spend 5 years in school obtaining a degree that will never be able to replace the previous 5 years I have spent learning by doing.
Best,
Cullen Roche, not PhD
Has the Rally Already Exhausted Itself? [View article]
How can you not call it a bubble? Global housing bubble, multiple stock bubbles (China, India), a massive debt bubble, oil bubble.....Smells like a duck, quacks like a duck....
Predicting the Next Great Bubble [View article]
Of course these are long-term trends. Every bubble that has ever occurred happens because of some long-term trend that results in a blow-off top. The housing bubble was the result of the long-term trend of low interest rates and easy credit. The Nasdaq bubble was the result of the long-term trend in technological innovation.
As for the speculative nature of the article - of course it's speculative. I am writing about bubbles for heaven's sake. Nowhere do I say it is prudent to put all your eggs in one basket or that investing in these ideas with you hard earned cash is a great idea. In fact, I say specifically that diversification is the name of the game if you're aiming for some bubble action.
That should clarify most people's concerns. Thanks for reading.