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Cullen Roche

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  • Gold Is Not An 'Investment' [View article]
    Technically, I wasn't at the beach. I was on a cliff overlooking the beach. So your question should be: "what kind of douche wears a suit to a cliff overlooking the beach". To that, I do not have a great answer. :-) Sorry.
    Nov 9 06:44 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not Monetizing U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    LT,

    I actually respond a fair amount on SA. Unfortunately, I do most of the commenting on my own site where the readership is more intellectually engaging, courteous and interested in real debate and not childish remarks such as your comment about my level of common sense.

    Unfortunately, SA is not a friendly place to engage readership. Readers are more interested in argument and stone throwing than real productive debate. I don't write these articles for my health. I write them because I am passionate about these issues and feel that there is a disturbing misunderstanding with regards to our monetary system. So, if you can't understand why I don't respond to comments like "drivel" or "Mr. Roche has as little common sense as the Chairman" then pardon me. I am not here to argue. I am here to help people better understand these very important issues.

    QE is an open market op just like they perform at the short end. It does not change the amount of money in the system. Bernanke has explained this on several occasions. It can alter portfolios and psychology, but it does not add net new money. When you buy govt bonds you exchange cash for a bond certificate. The govt gets your cash, you get a certificate. Was there a change in the net financial assets? Of course not. It creates a liability of the govt and an asset for you.

    The spending (to even allow govt bond purchases) comes first....The issuance of bonds in our system serves only as a reserve drain. And it's a drain that is 100% unnecessary now that we are paying interest on reserves.

    Sorry for the brutal honesty above, but I just don't have the time to deal with petty BS. It's not productive in any sort of way. And what this country needs right now is a productive and honest debate on these matters.....Not stone throwing and childish banter. That only detracts from the important matters at hand.
    Feb 9 11:15 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PragCap takes apart David Einhorn's U.S.-is-Greece argument piece by piece, lambasting "inflationistas" who refuse to see that the "price action in markets" makes it clear that there is no inflation and that deflation is the bigger worry. His greatest fear is that "we are talking ourselves into a depression and articles like [Einhorn's] only compound that fear."  [View news story]
    Well let's just lift the veil then. My name is Cullen Roche which is in plain sight for anyone who uses Google with any regularity or has any curiosity. You can find my full bio in the SA author section.

    I am not multiple people and my website is only anonymous because it was never intended to be so widely read. Regardless, it is only anonymous to those who don't know how to Google....

    I have no agenda. I am not pushing a product or company. I am not raising money. I am not pushing positions. I am just another frustrated citizen who feels that we have been failed by our leaders....The website is my outlet....
    May 28 07:24 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    If you actually remove your rose colored glasses and read the article you'll notice that I didn't claim to predict anything. In fact, I've been pretty clear about the fact that I don't believe anyone can predict market action within a bubble.

    And that article you cited from April 9th specifically stated that silver could continue to surge. I said most investors should ignore this market entirely.

    So no, no one is taking credit for anything. You're just not reading very closely because you're too busy being biased with regards to your silver holdings....
    May 1 11:43 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
    I've criticized and blamed Clinton's surplus for much of the current economic malaise so viewing this article thru your political biases will lead you astray.

    This isn't about politics. It's about good economics. Clinton's economics were piss poor in the late 90's and Ryan's are piss poor today. If you want to make it a political argument then that's your bias. Not mine.
    Apr 12 03:32 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor? [View article]
    My dartboard has outperformed the S&P by 100% over the last 5 years....fully audited....
    Dec 10 11:22 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    By my count there are still hundreds of fiat currencies in existence. There are zero gold standards. Therefore, the gold standard has always failed as well. :-)
    Oct 24 03:29 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why Austrian Economics Is Flawed [View article]
    Actually, what I've done here is attack two exceedingly basic concepts within Austrian econ - inflation as an increase in the money supply and the money multiplier concept used broadly by Austrians.

    I can provide citations showing you that these are broad Austrian concepts, but I don't think that's really necessary.

    Now, if you want to criticize me because not all Austrians believe these concepts, then that's a different matter, but I am not writing an academic paper here. It's an oversimplified blog post and includes some generalizations that are largely accurate with regards to broader Austrian economics.

    So, yes, this might be a generalization, but it's not a strawman by any means. Unless you're an Austrian of different shades than Mises, Hayek and Rothbard, in which case, you're in the minority and this post doesn't really apply to you....
    Sep 10 10:06 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor? [View article]
    Doesn't seem like you actually read the article.....I've been using a short-term tactical approach because of my macro bearish perspective. You're taking the comments out of context. You're taking me to task for sitting out the first three month of 2009 and then calling the market bottom the day before it occurred and selling into a 10%+ rip?

    pragcap.com/coming-thi...

    I'm not claiming to have been bullish all the way since March. I think I made that pretty clear in the piece.....That hasn't been my approach and any regular read of mine knows it....
    Dec 10 11:18 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Make a Mockery of the System - Again [View article]
    This is not an attack on Apple so please don't misconstrue the commentary. Perhaps the title is a bit misleading....The point of the piece is to show that the analysts are not adding value via their research. They are essentially part of the sales team that helps generate attention for a product their company wants to sell. We can debate the merits of that, but I think it's pretty clear that most analysts are not very good at predicting anything and therefore we have to call into question their purpose. If they are just helping sell stuff then that's fine. It should be disclosed as such. But pawning these people off as "experts" creates a conflict of interest and is very misleading.

    I think Apple is a fantastic company for what it's worth....This story has nothing to do with them really....
    Jan 19 01:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reason to Be Scared in the Market Now [View article]
    Readers of my articles on SA appear to be having a very difficult time differentiating between long-term and short-term indicators....
    Dec 13 05:58 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Good question. Why do people believe in different Gods? Why do some people believe in no God? Why do some societies believe in paper money? Why do some societies believe in rock money? Money's a strange thing. It's largely an accounting function that exists because we create it in our minds. It's based on belief.

    Maybe the central bank is just hedging its bets in case people decide to stop believing in paper money? I don't know to be honest. But that's my guess.

    Personally, I think gold is money. I just think it's a bad type of money because it's not a very convenient medium of exchange.
    Oct 24 05:19 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    Hey everyone,

    I'd like to apologize for the way this article was edited. I have no idea why, but SA completely altered the article giving it a much more controversial appearance than its original format provided. The original article, posted at my site, was a broad question and not a proclamation as this article implies. I've been quite clear about the fact that I believe silver is an unpredictable bubble. I don't pretend to know where it is going and my market position in silver is very small. I have a much smaller dog in this fight than an article like this gives the appearance of....

    I apologize to the readers and the fact that this piece has been given the appearance of having such a one sided perspective. I am not sure why the SA editors felt that it was appropriate to alter my content and I can assure you that if it continues I will no longer allow them to re-publish my work.

    Best,

    Cullen
    May 2 05:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    SA altered the article. I don't know why they did. The article is different as posted on pragcap. It's kind of irritating that they think it's okay to just completely alter the content of an article without my approval....In fact, it's ridiculous that they would even consider doing it....
    May 2 05:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
    The point is that the future burden from current spending arises only to the extent that govt spending is in excess of productive capacity. There is no such thing as having to pay off our debts. Our grandchildren won't receive a bill just like you don't receive a bill from the US govt to pay off WW2. You might have to pay marginally higher taxes in the future as the country grows and our needs expand, but all in all the median tax rates in the USA have been declining for 30+ years so the argument that we are paying off our grandparent's WW2 burden or whatever is nonsensical. The truth is, our standard of living is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than our grandparent's SOL was.

    So, there is no such thing as the govt paying off its debt. The idea is nonsensical. The US govt has expanded its debt every year since its founding. That's how a sovereign currency issuer allows its users to transact or progress in the currency that they require us to transact in.

    I hope that sheds some light on it. If not, you might want to read my treatise on the monetary system:

    pragcap.com/resources/...

    Best,

    Cullen
    Apr 12 06:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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221 Comments
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