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Cyrus Mewawalla  

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  • Why Samsung Is A Sell [View article]
    I share your concerns. My only comment is that I view Apple is an integrated software/hardware company whose products have traction precisely because Apple controls both the hardware and software. Whilst I accept that Apple subcontracts assembley to HonHai or Pegatron, it designs its own chips and for all intents and purchases has control over manufacturing. That is why I think that the management of IBM and HP have shown poor judgement by selling off their hardware - PCs and servers in IBM's case and the proposed spin off of HP into hardware and enterprise services.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Samsung Is A Sell [View article]
    Yes, I believe Samsung's position in IoT is weak. Whilst you rightly point out that "almost every house is powered by a Samsung television, washing machine, smartphone, tablet, fridge" and that many of these devices will be connected to the internet, Samsung is dependent on other software companies to control many of these products, most notably Google. Competitive advantage in the IoT world will lie with the software that controls devices rather than the devices themselves.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    I agree the shift will be very slow in commercial terms.
    In terms of share prices, however, things might move faster if there is a perception that the market leader in the IP networking equipment market is facing a threat to its margins.
    Your point about reliability is a valid one. But I would ask you to cast your mind to many of the disruptive technologies we have seen in the last decade: Most of them involved a cheaper, but inferior product replacing a more expensive, more reliable, higher quality technology. Here are some examples:
    1. VoIP replacing circuit-switched voice
    2. MP3 format replacing CDs in the music industry
    3. Chinese-made goods replacing US-made goods

    Disruptive technologies are disruptive precisely because we do NOT believe they are good enough to succeed. In time, however, they improve.
    I beleive Cisco will be the king of SDN by acquring the leaders, but I believe its margins may fall in the process, just as voice margins for telecom operators were lowered by VoIP, a technology which all telecom operators now deploy.

    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 16, 2013. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    Yes, I understand Cisco has already started aggressive M&A in the area with acquisitons of Meraki, Intucell, Sourcefire and others. Targets for Cisco, in my view, include Big Switch Networks, Aruba Networks, Brocade, Riverbed and Informatica.

    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    I do reserve the right to change my mind in the following months as the SDN industry develops!
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    Yes, I agree.
    That is an excellent point.
    It is also the strategy that Oracle has followed in cloud services - to buy the innovation - yet Salesforce, Amazon and others are still racing ahead because they have changed the dynamics of the industry itself.

    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    I accept the article may appear sensationalist. That is simply my writing style.
    My point is that Cisco has the right strategy - to embrace SDN - but it is still vulnerable to a medium term dip in revenues because the fall in legacy revenues may outweigh the rise in SDN revenues.
    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    I would argue that the word collapse is not ridiculous in these days of rapid technology cycles where companies can rise or fall quite quickly.

    Blackberry and Nokia "collapsed" relatively quickly by missing Apple's touchscreen and app technology by just a few years.

    Telecom opeators embraced VoIP technology a decade ago but their voice revenues still collapsed when they did so, because the entire voice industry collapsed as a result of cheaper voice technology.

    My point is the entire router/switch market could collapse as they are commoditised. Cisco, will no doubt, provide other services. But they may not be able to do so fast enough to prevent a medium term dip in revenues.

    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    Great technology companies also seem invincible in the face of new threats.
    Indeed Chambers' remark that "History is littered with start-ups that bet against Cisco and lost" rings very true.
    My point is that even if Cisco wins in the SDN game, overall IP networking hardware revenues are likely to fall and Cisco will effectively have to become a cloud software company to maintain earnings.
    The key is that in the medium term, during the transition, revenues and earnings may dip.
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    Thanks, I agree with you.
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    Thanks for your comments.

    1. Yes, of course, every piece of networking kit has embeded software in it. My point is that Cisco has closed, proprietary software within its hardware and that open standards - if they become mainstream - will commoditise the data forwarding element of its switches and routers.

    2. With regard to chips my view is that SDN will create just one or two chip architectures rather than the many architectures available from networking equipment makers today.

    3. In fact I beleive that in the long run Cisco will become the king of SDN technology. The problem is that in the tranistion, the increase in SDN revenues may be outweighed by the decline in legacy router/switch revenues. This is exactly what happened when telecom operators embraced VoIP technology to replace circuit switched voice.

    Best,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 05:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Existential Threat To Cisco [View article]
    John,

    Thanks.

    I think the software and internet sectors will be the biggest beneficiary of SDN.

    Cloud software companies like Facebook, Google, Netflix and Salesforce will be able to programme networks to enhance their web services. Cyber-security companies like Check Point, Verint, Fortinet and Trend Micro will see a ballooning demand for their products because open standards raise security risk.

    Best wishes,
    Cyrus
    Oct 4, 2013. 04:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Set To Rise [View article]
    The 25% referred to the difference between the US corp tax rates and taxes Apple has already paid overseas, which would likely be offset against the US Corp tax rate (assuming double tax treaties were in place with those countries)
    Feb 15, 2013. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Set To Rise [View article]
    I agree. Apple's tone has been rather arrogant towards Mr Einhorn and it really does need to understand the cash on their balance sheet belongs to shareholders, not management.
    Feb 15, 2013. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Electronics Stocks Becoming Bolt-On Accessories For Big Internet Ecosystems [View article]
    I agree. It might buy RIM or Nokia in 2013 though ....
    Oct 1, 2012. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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