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  • Possible Double-Bottom in CAD/CHF
    The Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc pair does not get much coverage. The reason is simple – under most circumstances, other crosses of these two currencies are more volatile. Besides, even now, there are still brokers who do not offer it for trading, which accounts for a little wider spread. That, in turn, makes this pair less attractive to speculators.

    In spite of its secondary role, though, the CAD/CHF can offer good trading opportunities. Just recently, this pair moved down about 750 pips in less than a month, rivaling many other, more popular currencies. This was only the latest price swing in down trend from a high of 1.1142 to 0.8471 in a year.

    This low coincides with another low established in late 2008, creating a possibility for a double-bottom formation on a weekly chart. During this entire down trend, there was no correction, only one consolidation, which increases the probability of the CAD/CHF finding support at the present level.



    Technical indicators like the Stochastic, and the percentageR are oversold in the short term (in the context of the weekly chart), also suggesting a double bottom. If this indeed happens here, the CAD/CHF could stage a rally spanning 400-600 pips.     
    Tags: forex trading, forex, technical analysis
    Jun 14 3:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • EUR-CAD Testing Key Resistance
     Friday brought a lot of movement in currencies, following the NFP report. For the most part, though, these price swings were continuations of what happened earlier in the week and not any major changes. One of the currency pairs that extended the previous trend was the EUR/CAD.

    The EUR/CAD has been rallying for couple of weeks now. It appreciated from 1.3635 to 1.4320, which was the high on Friday. This move put the price in a position to test the major resistance at 1.4350, formed by two previous highs in October and in early May.

    On both weekly and daily charts, the price has formed a possible cup with a handle pattern. This particular formation is bullish, suggesting additional advance in the EUR/CAD once the patter is completed. However, in order to complete the cup with a handle, the price must close above the 1.4350 resistance.

    EUR-CAD Analysis, June 6, 2011

    This important test should happen within the next few days. If the price pokes above that level and immediately retreats, that will likely lead to a failed formation. On the other hand, closing above 1.4350 will confirm the cup with a handle, which could push the EUR/CAD to 1.5000. 
    Jun 06 8:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • USD/JPY: "Hold it short"

    USD/JPY: 82.21

    Very Short-Term Trend: downtrend

    USD/JPY Outlook:

    The prices declined to as low as 81.81 but then bounced back slightly. However, this bounce was nothing else than an oversold bounce and it didn't change the hourly trend: it remains strong downtrend.

    USD/JPY Outlook 29-12-2010

    Thus, we are looking for further decline today towards the 81.60/50 support from where another bounce is likely to develop.

    On the upside, a move above 82.50/60 negates the immediate bearishness and risks stronger recovery towards 83.00.

    Strategy: Holding short from 83.30 is favorable. Stop=82.40. Target=81.70

    source: http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2010/12/USD-JPY-Hold-it-short/6903



    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: USD/JPY, Forex Analysis
    Dec 29 5:21 AM | Link | Comment!
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