Seeking Alpha

Dale Roberts

 
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  • The Same Returns With Half The Risk?
    Fri, Aug. 15 AAPL, AGG, EFA 46 Comments

    Summary

    • I created and hold a very low beta portfolio that I have transposed to U.S. holdings.
    • With the return of very modest volatility that portfolio mix has outperformed the broader markets in 2014.
    • Are we again in a scenario where the balanced portfolios will potentially outperform the all-stock portfolios over the next several years?
    • In the scenario of a market correction, the best risk adjusted returns may come from a prudent mix of stocks, bonds and cash.
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Aug. 7 BRK.A, BRK.B, NOBL 518 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently I wrote an article entitled Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either. Here are a few simple scenarios that demonstrate the power of stock price growth for retirees.
    • It all comes down to the earnings power of your companies. Dividends can help us find that profitability.
    • Investing for total return, even in retirement can be the path to the most successful retirement, with the most income available.
  • I'm Not Selling Anything, I'm Buying Everything
    Thu, Jul. 31 AAPL, VIG, SPY 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently, a Seeking Alpha author admitted to selling most everything due to fears of a market pullback and market over-valuation.
    • In my opinion, this author is not yet an investor, but thanks to some recent experience and introduction to emotional risk, he may be on his way.
    • This author teaches us that it is paramount to first have a plan when investing, a plan that prepares us and tells us what to do in any market condition.
  • The Stocks Catch The Bonds - 6.5 Years Later
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Jul. 22 EFA, EWC, SPY 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The year 2008 provided a very poor start date for monies invested in most stocks.
    • From 2008, a typical bond heavy portfolio has outperformed a balanced and balanced growth portfolio that would offer double or more the stock exposure.
    • Sometimes, the market announces that we proceed with caution - is this one of those periods where perhaps returns will be nil or minimal in the short-to-mid term?
    • According to the Shiller Index, this is the third-most expensive market in market history.
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Jul. 17 SPY, DGRO 757 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks are the best performing asset class that provide the best opportunity for growth and returns that can beat inflation.
    • What drives that growth is the earnings power of a company; the actual dividends do not drive earnings power, they are a reflection of that earnings success.
    • Most would agree that the dividends don't matter in the accumulation phase, but the same holds true when harvesting in the retirement phase. What matters is earnings growth.
  • Getting The Returns Without The Risk
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Jul. 8 SPY, TLT 104 Comments

    Summary

    • A bond ladder can typically deliver the total return of the longest dated bond within the ladder.
    • Bond laddering can greatly reduce the chance of having a negative year, even within a bond bear market.
    • What's the sweet spot for the duration of a bond ladder if one fears a rising rate environment?
  • Cutting My Dividends By 35% - Improving My Dividend Growth Portfolio
    Mon, Jun. 23 NOBL, SDY, SPY 124 Comments

    Summary

    • Most dividend growth investors on Seeking Alpha appear to invest for yield, that is likely leaving money on the table.
    • Dividend growth offers the opportunity to outperform the market with respect to total return, but the magic is growing dividends, value and a low payout ratio.
    • I have left behind the higher-yielding Vanguard VYM, and moved into the more pure dividend growth play of the much lower-yielding VIG.
    • We should always remember that in the accumulation phase, all that matters is total return matched to the investor's risk tolerance level.
  • How To Outlive Your Money: A Lesson From Canada
    Mon, Jun. 16 SPY 141 Comments

    Summary

    • Canadian policy mandates that retirees remove 7.48% in their 72nd year. That level of drawdown is a recipe for retirement disaster.
    • The 4% drawdown rule may not apply in current conditions. 3 may be the new 4 when it comes to spending rates in retirement.
    • We'll examine the likely outcome of withdrawing at that high rate over the next couple of decades.
    • We humans are living much longer, and adjustments have to be made. How do we make our money last as long as we do?
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Jun. 11 SPY 89 Comments

    Summary

    • Warren Buffett has suggested that a retiree might hold a mix of 90% equities and 10% bonds.
    • The all-stock portfolio actually works quite well funding 4% or more of portfolio value, inflation adjusted, over most 30 year periods.
    • But the equity portfolio increases risk during years of successive market declines.
    • We'll have a look at the 90/10 portfolio for retirees, a 60/40 mix, along with bucketing with cash and bonds to fund retirement in stages.
  • Warren Buffett Was Right About Retirement
    Mon, Jun. 2 SPY 93 Comments

    Summary

    • Many well read studies suggest that one can fund a lasting retirement by withdrawing 4% to 4.5% of portfolio assets.
    • Warren Buffett suggests that investors simply hold 90% S&P 500 and 10% in a bond fund. Is he serious?
    • We'll examine how an all-equity portfolio would have performed in the draw down period over the last 10 years and through the last two market corrections.
    • An all stock portfolio has an incredible track record of making money last for 30, 40, 50 years or more in the spending stage.
  • What If We See The 1940's All Over Again?
    Mon, May. 26 DIA, TLT, SPY 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Just because yields are low doesn't mean that they have nowhere to go but up.
    • The last time we had crippling government debt and historical low yields, they stayed low for a decade and then some.
    • We'll apply the yield hikes of the 1940's and 50's with today's yields on Treasuries to see what kind of performance we would receive.
    • While bonds offered muted returns in the 40's and 50's the stocks came to their defense.
  • How Bad Could It Get For Bonds?
    Tue, May. 20 PLW, GOVT, RINF 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Most investors have only known the good times for bonds. Yields have largely been falling since 1981. That could change in a hurry.
    • Yields on Treasuries are near all-time lows; what happens if those rates spike?
    • We'll look at what history offers as the worst-case scenario.
    • Yields are low, there may not be much in the way of total return protection by way of yield.
  • How Long Can You Afford To Be Under Water?
    Editors' Pick • Mon, May. 12 AGG, EWC, EFA 97 Comments

    Summary

    • When the stocks markets correct, it can take many years for your portfolio to return to its previous total value.
    • In addition to managing the initial price corrections, we should also manage the time period that it takes to move back into positive territory.
    • We'll look at the recovery times in recent market corrections evaluating all-equity and balanced portfolios.
    • It's important to pay attention to recovery periods in the accumulation and retirement or spending phases.
  • There's No Money To Be Made From Here, Maybe
    Editors' Pick • Mon, May. 5 SPY 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock markets are entering rarefied territory when it comes to valuations.
    • There is usually not much money to be made from new monies invested at these tops.
    • We'll look at the returns from previous market tops.
    • What is the best strategy, and how do we create dry power out of thin air?
  • If I Was A Stock Picker, Here's What I'd Do
    Wed, Apr. 30 BRK.A, BRK.B, DIA 52 Comments

    Summary

    • I only hold three stocks to date, most of my holdings are by the way of ETFs.
    • Many studies show that one can achieve diversification with 15-20 companies, perhaps I can lower the fees I pay by purchasing enough members of an index that I want to.
    • In the end the most cost effective solution may lie with purchasing an ETF combined with a few individual stock selections.
    • I am looking to capture the market-topping performance of the Dividend Aristocrats and Vanguard's VIG and VDIGX.
  • A Simple Way To Outperform The Market With Beta Power
    Mon, Apr. 21 AGG, SPY, TLT 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The total market that includes the small and mid cap companies has the ability to outperform the broader market S&P 500.
    • Long Term Treasuries are one of the best risk-reducing agents available.
    • What happens when we create a simple portfolio of 75% Total Market VTI and 25% long term treasuries by adding TLT? We still have an market outperform.
    • What if we reduce volatility even further by creating a portfolio of market beating dividend growth companies with those long term treasuries?
  • What Is Total Return?
    Tue, Apr. 15 NOBL, SDY, VIG 58 Comments

    Summary

    • In the accumulation phase, the most important metric is total return once the risk tolerance level is taken into consideration.
    • Total return is widely misunderstood as an investment style. Of course, total return is a measurement of portfolio total value.
    • Focusing on total return vs. total income may provide greater income in the spending phase, when that income is actually required.
  • Actually It Is All About Total Return...Totally!
    Tue, Apr. 8 BNS, CVY, HYG 159 Comments

    Summary

    • It's a simple mathematical fact, $2 million buys more income than $1 million, the goal should then be accumulating the highest portfolio value within your risk tolerance level.
    • Why are many dividend growth investors essentially adopting a spending strategy in the accumulation phase?
    • It's time to separate the accumulation phase and the spending phase.
    • Making the transition from accumulation to spending is a very simple process for a knowledgeable investor.
  • The Most Important Article I Could Ever Write On Dividend Growth
    Wed, Apr. 2 ABBV, AFL, BEN 110 Comments

    Summary

    • The dividend aristocrats have delivered on dividend growth's greatest gift - market beating total return.
    • The formula for total return might be growing dividends supported by earnings growth and a low payout ratio.
    • The dividend aristocrats are populated with many companies that surprisingly still have low to moderate and very manageable payout ratios.
    • When we add the value filters of Vanguard's dividend growth funds we might be able to find the best of the best among the current 54 dividend aristocrats.
  • Vanguard VIG Top 10 Hits Bottom On Total Return
    Wed, Mar. 26 ABT, CAT, CL 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation ETF is a wonderful total return machine that has beat the market from inception, delivering on dividend growth's potential.
    • The top 10 holdings from VIG create a wonderful portfolio that has beat the market and total VIG holdings from inception.
    • In the last two years, the top 10 has delivered sub par results. How many companies does it take to replicate an index? 15? 20? More?
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market
    Tue, Mar. 25 NOBL 123 Comments

    Summary

    • The Dividend Aristocrats have outperformed the market. Dividend Aristocrats are members of the S&P 500 that have increased their dividends for 25 years or more.
    • One can purchase the Dividend Aristocrat members with one easy ETF - NOBL.
    • Are you beating the Aristocrats? If not, why not just purchase this simple ETF?
    • This article also looks at why investors try to beat the market.
  • Finding Alpha With Dividend Growth: The Stocks
    Wed, Mar. 19 VIG 27 Comments

    Summary

    • In the accumulation phase, total return is the most important metric, with strategy matched to your risk tolerance level of course.
    • Studies suggest that low payout ratios are the signal that market beating total return is on the way.
    • I've consulted with some market beaters to see what low payout ratio companies are in their portfolios.
  • How To Get The Most Out Of Dividend Growth
    Tue, Mar. 11 CVX, GE, JNJ 158 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Growth offers the potential to beat the market according to many studies.
    • Investors might be better served paying more attention to total return and less to the yield and dividend growth.
    • Is the Chowder rule a secret to success or does it focus too heavily on the yield and dividend history?
  • Dividend Growth: Managing Income, Reducing Total Return
    Wed, Mar. 5 ENB, SPY, THI 55 Comments

    Summary

    • The accumulation phase is all about total return; find out why dividend growth has delivered in the past and ensure that you have a strategy that looks to the future.
    • The sweet spot for dividend growth might be high yield and low payout ratio.
    • Don't leave money on the table by avoiding dividend initiators or those companies with a shorter history of dividends.
  • My Three Stocks
    Wed, Feb. 19 ENB, TRP, BNS 46 Comments
  • VYM Increases Its Dividend 20%: ETF Portfolio Increases Its Lead Over The Stock Pickers
    Mon, Feb. 17 CVY, HYG, SDY 107 Comments
  • Dividend Growth's Magic Is Beta, Not Dividends
    Tue, Feb. 11 CVY, DIA, HYG 25 Comments
  • Where Are The Markets Going Next?
    Mon, Feb. 3 AGG, SPY, TLT 16 Comments
  • A Great Year For Balanced Portfolios
    Tue, Jan. 28 AGG, CVY, EFA 18 Comments
  • In The Recent Pullback, Long-Term Treasuries Do Their Thing
    Sat, Jan. 25 SPY, TLT 22 Comments
  • Small Caps Will Outperform If You Give 'Em Time
    Sun, Jan. 19 IJR, SPY, VB 10 Comments
  • Skip The Dividends If You're Young And Brave
    Dec. 18, 2013 IJH, IJR, SPY 25 Comments