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Dale Roberts  

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  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Chevron Corporation [View article]
    Chevron (NYSE:CVX) also released fourth quarter earnings and it also revealed a challenging quarter in this first inning of the new oil price paradigm. The company's fourth quarter earnings were $3.5 billion or $1.85 per diluted share. Fourth quarter 2014 earnings were approximately $1.5 billion lower than fourth quarter 2013 result. Earnings were trimmed by some 42% in a quarter that offered oil prices significantly above the recent range. And that was at $70 plus oil average for the quarter.

    What do your ratings look like if in the next quarter Chevron earns .60 and it might appear that they could earn under $3 per share in 2015. Do models even show it more attractive? The company does not appear to be well positioned for the new lower oil price paradigm.

    Dale
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Bank Of Canada's Oil Problems [View article]
    RBC beats and boosts dividend. Led by capital markets and retail operations.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    There are many moving parts to RBC. Again, many parts of the Canadian economy (OK such as Ontario the biggest province) appear to benefit from that lower oil price and that strong U.S. dollar).

    Very nice move for Royal over the last month. That said it would be an opportunity if Canadian banks did get a little cheaper.

    Many investors do not understand the true power of 'oligopoly' as it is unique. Dangerous to invest in what you do not know.

    Dale
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Chart Is Worth 1,000 Words [View article]
    Rates could stay low for another 10 or 15 years, they have stayed low and range bound for extended periods before, they could do it again. I would like to see the move up gently or modestly.

    Nobody knows, anything can happen.

    Dale
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying LQD Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Sure check out the balanced portfolios performance (such as Wellington) through rising rate environments. I have articles on how bad could it get for bonds and balanced portfolios.

    Happy reading ...

    Dale
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impeccable Quality, But There Are No Bargains Today In The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector: Part 8 [View article]
    Large caps cannot hide in plain site. Low PE means low earnings expectations by the tens of thousands of professionals and non-professionals who have analyzed the companies and placed their bets by way of buying or selling or holding.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats And Maximum Drawdowns [View article]
    Dividends can get cut, portfolio income can take a hit. Greatest protection historically comes from a mix of stocks and bonds and lower volatility. One can share harvest to fund retirement.

    See my articles on dividends and retirement and the recessions.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000 [View article]
    Shiller PE 10 approaching Black Tuesday levels.

    We'll see ...

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000 [View article]
    S&P 500 long term Median PE ratio ... 14.57. Today approaching 20.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impeccable Quality, But There Are No Bargains Today In The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector: Part 8 [View article]
    Investors might keep in mind that while we see 'normal' PE's in that 20 plus range, that's the current 'normal' in a current abnormally high PE era.

    The long term Median PE ratio for the S&P 500 is 14.57.

    But yes it's all about that relationship to risk free yield as Warren Buffett will tell us.

    While many investors might worry about where to buy companies at sensible valuations, they might instead turn to building that cash pile or building that bond portfolio that will likely provide a wonderful opportunity to re-allocate in the next market correction. Moving through investment cycles it can come down to 'how much you got' to reinvest when there is (true and obvious) long term value.

    For now happy to hold my nose and offer most of the portfolio income to Apple and Mr. Buffett. It's easy to also reinvest in my balanced index portfolio that allocates evenly to Canada, U.S. and International and bonds.

    A balanced portfolio (rebalanced) is perfect for 'times like these'. No sweat. No worries. No emotion. No need to guess about valuations.

    Happy Investing ...

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000 [View article]
    If one has a plan of dollar cost averaging, perhaps they should hold their nose and keep buying. That said, I'd be a big fan of holding some bonds and cash to take advantage of the next opportunity.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000 [View article]
    Morgan Stanley has the EAFE index at a PE ratio. of 15.8. This might be a good time for that US / International / (Canada for some) / and a healthy bond component mix.

    As has been written, it might be all about that comparison to risk free yield. Stocks greatest threat is bond and Treasury yields. But then bond prices might then be supported by the flight to the higher yield? That will be an interesting tug of war.

    Happy to play this 50 /50 bonds-to-equities down the middle. Money will have to flow somewhere.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying LQD Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    A 50 / 50 LQD and SPY portfolio rebalanced would have beat spy from 2007 to end of january 2015. Even without rebalancing it beats.

    Nothing wrong with a big basket of individual bonds if you know what you are doing. Nothing wrong with LQD or a broad based bond portfolio either.

    Investing ain't rocket surgery.

    Dale
    Feb 26, 2015. 06:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • KISS Retirement Portfolio: Smooth Out Your Returns With Rick Ferri's 3-Fund Portfolio [View article]
    I have learned the hard way, about thinking that is. :)

    Spock would make the best investor.

    Dale
    Feb 25, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep It Simple [View article]
    Over thinking is an investor's greatest threat (for typical investors). Buy quality and hold for the long long term whether you are an indexer or individual stock holder (or a hybrid of both - count me in on that one).

    Invest in your risk tolerance level and stay the course.

    Listen to mr buyandhold2012 and his legendary patience and market beat history.

    The only stories I hear of great success are similar to that of buyandhold.

    Dale
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources Not Interested In Race To The Bottom [View article]
    Thanks for the update, this appears to be a compelling story. They are the godfathers of shale oil production? The low cost structure is quite surprising.

    I hold this in VIG (the index financial health filters appear to have weeded things down to a few strong energy companies). I overweight a few index holdings (buying individual companies) and I would add this in a heartbeat. I might at some point :)

    And keep adding to VIG that has XOM, OXY and EOG as its top 3 energy holdings.

    Dale
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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