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Dale Roberts

 
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  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Well, even in more extended periods such as year to date with TLT delivering
    20.2% while the markets are up 7.8% to date. We can have those events, in a low rate environment.

    Anyway, time to watch the ball game.

    Dale
    Oct 24 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Hi TF, I don't think treasuries will fall by 9%, and I'll put money on it, ha. Certainly bonds cannot repeat from 1981 to present. But bonds should or might still provide that stability and inverse relationship at times.

    There are times when they can still deliver in a low rate environment See TLT over the last year and last several weeks.

    Dale
    Oct 24 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Hi Bart, they look a little complicated for my liking. I like to manage risk in a very simple fashion. Again, if i was looking at an inverse relationship, I would suggest investors look at long term treasuries. I understand that there are many more options.

    Though I do remember buying an inverse etf in 2009. I would now opt for TLT, but my portfolio is already so low beta. I use a 1-5 laddered corp. Stability, but limited inverse relationship. In the Tangerine Portfolios I have the broad based bond index.

    Dale
    Oct 24 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    I am long VIG, just bought some moret this week, and last week, and some Apple, simply forgot to tick that one. lol

    Dale
    Oct 24 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Hi, I have no idea where bond yields will go. They might stay low and range bound for a decade or two, or not. Who knows?

    But we certainly can look at how a balanced portfolio performed in a bond bear market. For 40-49 period, no difference in returns for Balanced Growth and SP 500. Using that Wellington fund ... Article to follow.

    Dale
    Oct 24 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Here's the Wellington link.

    http://yhoo.it/1pHkCYs

    It's worth a look, to see how that fund (and asset allocation) did vs the market during the bond bear. I will take that on.

    Dale
    Oct 24 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Even during a secular bond bear market, there will be periods when yields are falling, and of course rising, giving the opportunity to rebalance. We can look at the long history of the Vanguard Wellington Fund for performance in that bear market.

    All said an attractive risk adjusted return moving forward may continue to be a balanced or balanced growth (rebalanced) portfolio.

    Many will write nothing looks all that attractive from today's valuations and yields, but the money has to flow somewhere.

    Dale
    Oct 24 06:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Great mix for sure, thanks for sharing.

    Dale
    Oct 23 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Thanks, I agree. Though the disruption fact applying to DG is important to state on Seeking Alpha. Most of the articles paint DG as completely fool proof, and that it was easy to avoid any dividend cuts in the recession or any other period. Love DG, but as you state, every form of investment has its risks.

    Even cash.

    Dale
    Oct 23 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Yes, but there are years where gold is positive when almost everything else is down. I am still amazed by the Permanent Portfolio. Gold may be some nice insurance from here, who knows?

    Dale
    Oct 23 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Hi Darren I was just walking the dog (my husky Sampson - yes I know how Canadian) and I honestly had GM pop into my head during the walk, as another example. Must have been you, I do have diagnosed ESP.

    GM is another example. They were tough times. That went to zero?

    Dale
    Oct 22 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Thanks 123, appreciate your input here. I will head back and read Tim's articles on that. Dale
    Oct 22 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Hi glin, I am just reflecting what happened. Most would have had to navigate through some disruption. For some it might have been easy, for others it might have been tough, and perhaps even damaging to their retirement. I simply feel the risks should be considered and addressed. And risk is certainly always a moving target and that's what makes this all so interesting.

    Ha, I have never written an anti dividend growth article, ha. I am a big fan of the style and its merits and history. But I will certainly weigh in on stock picking vs indexing. It may be the area where indexing makes the most sense. The rules are well defined for creating that index.

    Thanks, Dale
    Oct 22 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Thanks jgrever always great to hear from investors and their real experiences. Yes, I have been on that 'cash thing' lately and certainly bonds for rebalancing and risk management.

    It is interesting to see the power of rising dividends supported by earnings power. Though nothing is always a given.

    Dale
    Oct 22 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Hi Boom Boom, I used the numbers from a Robert Schwartz study (and confirmed with Robert before the original article) and as per this article acknowledged that some of those removed from the champions list were by way of acquisition...

    "Now keep in mind that some of those Dividend Champions were removed from the list as they were acquired at price premiums. That said, the dividend disruption was quite substantial and wide spread".

    The basic truth is that there was considerable dividend disruption.

    Dale
    Oct 22 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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