Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Dale Roberts  

View Dale Roberts' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Heinz dives into U.S. mustard market [View news story]
    Very funny and clear commercials (the key). The joke is pointing back toward the product and message.

    I heard Warren wrote them. :)

    Dale
    Apr 17, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    From Mr. Blodget - - Why it's meaningless: Again, it's a statement of the obvious. Of course it's "a market of stocks." But it's also a "stock market." And viewing the stock market as a "market of stocks" doesn't help you in any way, other than reminding you that all stocks don't move up and down the same amount.

    The phrase or notion does not help an investor in any way. Just as the tools and websites and books for sale cannot help investors find enough of those winners in advance, or avoid those losers. But many make a living off of the selling of 'beating the market', outsmarting the market.

    For obvious reasons it is industry in fast decline due to the facts and observations and studies.

    Dale
    Apr 17, 2015. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    Thank you buyandhold for clearly and eloquently framing what are stocks within a stock market and for demonstrating that inter-relationship. Your analogy is wonderful.

    Your post is about 10x more valuable for an investor (than the article), with all due respect.

    Dale
    Apr 17, 2015. 06:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Oil Supply And Demand: Early 2015 Review [View article]
    H, you wrote ... "The important conclusion here is that the oil Armageddon is not coming. Low prices are doing what they are supposed to do: stimulating demand".

    But in the chart you show for Q1, it shows demand falling.

    Oil production is increasing. The oil sands and shale are willing and ready to produce much, much more in the lower price band, as recent history shows.

    Oil price is likely responding due to traders. There's maybe no reason for oil to be $40 but perhaps $60 is a more reasonable number based on the mid term supply and demand fundamentals? As a guess. But perhaps oil could stay $50'ish for a while.

    Over the next year we are about to find out how much North American oil can be produced in the lower oil price band. We know OPEC can produce ridiculously low cost. 
    We are in a new oil price paradigm, the question might be is it $40-60 or $60-80? Oil sands and shale changed the game. And now we have incredible cost deflation at work for producers as well.
    Technology and human behaviour are at work to reduce demand as well, as a wild card. Technology and human ingenuity are at work on the production and demand side working to reduce on both of those counts. Recently, there has been success on both of those fronts. That trend is bearish thankfully.
    There are so many moving parts, and that's what makes this all so interesting.
    All said, as a Canadian I profit from higher oil prices. Would love to see a sweet spot of $60-80. We'll see.
    Dale
    Apr 16, 2015. 06:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    1900 to 1960, 3% to 5% range for 10 year...

    That's a full investment life for many.

    We may finish our investment careers with very, very low yields...

    Or not.

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    Yes, last time rates were 'historically low' and we had crippling government debt, yields stayed low and rangebound for 15 years, or so.

    1930 to 1960, range 3.4 to under 5 for 10 year...

    Anything can happen.

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    Asset allocation is always in style.

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    A bond ladder perhaps with yield aid from some high yield bonds, no sweat, very little risk. My bond portfolio would welcome some higher rates, and my combined yield is currently towards 5%.

    It ain't rocket surgery for stocks or bonds.

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 07:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada seeks new crude customers as Keystone languishes, Rickford says [View news story]
    Yes, let's just keep shipping oil by the most dangerous method, rail.

    Yikes. Do politicians not read simply reports? Or do politicians have close connections with those who own rail companies, such as the Warren Buffet's of the world.

    Hmmm, wonder who bought when pipelines were about to be 'outlawed' ha...

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 06:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackRock Inc: Well Positioned To Provide Handsome Returns For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Shhh! Please don't tell folks about his one. :)

    I mostly an indexer, and as an indexer I have to overweight this position, as a pick, soon.

    The momentum is understandable as professional money managers are largely aware that they can't beat the market. The best model is fee for service and put your clients in the indexes, as per Warren Buffett's suggestion.

    Retail investors mostly know they should avoid actively manged funds due to their being no value added by managers, investors largely lose due to the high fees. Most managers replicate the index and charge fees. Investors are becoming aware, in Canada and the US. Yes, there are a few good managers out there.

    Retail investors (stock pickers) who benchmark properly realize they can't beat the market. Many are moving to indexing ETF'ing. That trend will likely continue and accelerate.

    If investing is about hoping a trend and profits will continue, this looks like a good bet.

    I will soon add this to Apple and Berkshire B as my picks.

    Dividend Growth investor should also avoid this, look at that puny yield. How can you make money with a 2.3% yield? :)

    Dale
    Apr 15, 2015. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is CNQ A Value Investment? [View article]
    Yes, it does certainly look much more attractive than the US majors? It's actually been able to grow revenues from 07 / 08, unlike the XOM's of the world.

    This is a top ten holding in the Canadian index, along with Suncor and Enbridge for the energy space.

    Dale
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    As I have written in articles on risk, there is only one way to know what it feels like to lose your virginity.

    Perhaps the most accurate metaphor for experiencing that first correction.

    Dale
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Oil Rush [View article]
    Hmmmm, then how was Suncor making a few bill at those low oil prices, even with cap ex at considerable levels. Again, see chart from the state department.

    There'a a lot of sands oil economic at $50-65. Ditto for shale projects.

    :)

    Dale
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    Great post. Yes, we'll see the false bravado on SA quickly disappear in the next major correction. Many here appear to be new to investing, and they refuse to address risk, or discuss risk. They have not self directed through a major correction.

    Many claim they won't even look at the price declines. Well of course they will, and many will learn a very expensive and humbling lesson.

    I sign off every article with "know your risk tolerance level".

    Dale
    Apr 12, 2015. 07:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Lending Is Booming [View article]
    That's a very, very positive event. I have read in many places that money is finally starting to work its way into the US economy.

    Perhaps there will even be (finally) some real growth? :)

    Dale
    Apr 11, 2015. 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,519 Comments
4,725 Likes