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Dale Roberts

 
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  • Retirees, This Is Not Your Father's Retirement Plan: Constructing The 2015 Fill-The-Gap Portfolio [View article]
    Hi that is a risk that investors would have to consider, but the TLT would be market correction insurance; that investment may cost ya until you need it... as is the case with most insurance. It's a cost, and then it's a benefit.

    Dale
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    Hi Seng, you wrote ...

    "The concern is really the Average Joe who only earned 2.5% p.a. over the past 20 years - the question is why does the Average Joe only earned so little? Is this because of their Buy & Sell activities which are emotionally based? What strategy is best to help the Average Joe earn higher than 2.5% p.a.?"

    The answer is by way of bonds my friend. The answer is having a portfolio that only goes down by 10% or 15% or 20% when the broader markets go down by 55%. The answer is matching one's holdings to one's risk tolerance level. It starts by answering the question, Tick One: I am completely confident that I will not react emotionally in the event of a 60%, 50%, 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%, 5% decline in the value of my portfolio.

    Or I am not comfortable with the value of my portfolio going down at all, I want my principal protected.

    Most do not ask those tough questions, and perhaps many financial advisors do not probe deep enough when doing that risk evaluation.

    Too much risk = too little returns.

    It appears very few investors could hold an all equity portfolio and navigate through a major correction.

    Dale
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    Yes and it comes back to Mr. Benjamin Graham who suggested most investors buy companies with at least a 20 year history of paying dividends. That strategy can also find a lot of value, and help investors reduce the number of poor selections, and conversely find more great and incredibly long term profitable companies that carry the day.

    Dale
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    And thanks to the author for the link and kinds words.

    Happy Holidays.

    Dale
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    Thanks retiree, yes articles that employ survivorship bias can be quite dangerous and they litter the landscape.

    Dividend growth investing is amazing and the market beat history is incredible, the lower volatility is more than useful, as investors taking on too much risk or volatility is the greatest threat to returns, and the reason cash has beat the average of returns over the decades.

    But dividend growth investing has its challenges and risks. Those risks should be acknowledged and faced head on. You are going to get price reductions, you are going to own companies that get in trouble here and there, you are going to face dividend cuts, holds and reductions. None of which are a problem at all for the investor who holds a diversified portfolio within his or her risk tolerance level.

    The simple dividend aristocrats index has a wonderful market beat history. The key would be to have a had a set in stone rule to sell and redeploy capital. I think the average tenure of an aristocrat is 6.5 years?

    As always, it will all come down to emotions and investor psychology.

    Dale
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Are Coming: My Top REIT Picks For 2015 [View article]
    A great year for REITs. For indexers keeping score at home, the passive MSCI REIT index (VNQ is a good one to cover that), 2014 YTD total returns are about 31.5%.

    All of Brad's 2015 picks are of course in VNQ and index.

    The sector certainly has a nice broad market beat over the last decade and more but with more much volatility.

    Happy Holidays,

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 09:29 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Week Can Make In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Thanks Timmies do you have the links to support the production numbers? Those are great, and tell us a a lot about where the price of oil might settle is the rules of supply and demand ever apply again.

    Thanks for that summary.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Week Can Make In The Energy Sector [View article]
    I am a big fan of buyandhold and his message of patience and staying the course. We know patience and being able to execute is way more important than the strategies that we discuss on SA.

    For buyandhold, I would ask with your parameters, would that mean that you would not have invested from 1991 right through to 2000? Or perhaps you combine your market top rule with a valuation assessment?
    Sometimes it's hard to be rational when the markets are not?

    Thanks, Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Week Can Make In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Investors must think that oil is going back to $100. Not sure that's a good guess based on supply and demand and cost of production charts.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, This Is Not Your Father's Retirement Plan: Constructing The 2015 Fill-The-Gap Portfolio [View article]
    Yes, average rates of return from the current Shiller PE ratio is -0.5% per year over a ten year period. From here, it may come down to dry powder and a balanced portfolio and the ability to rebalance from bonds into equities when they are once again priced for long term success.

    It's likely that it's not "different now" on equity valuations and long term success.

    Happy to play this one 50/50 down the middle with additional cash as well on the sidelines. A true correction would be welcome and perhaps healthy for the markets.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, This Is Not Your Father's Retirement Plan: Constructing The 2015 Fill-The-Gap Portfolio [View article]
    Sorry to be a pain, but we know that investors typically get about 2-3% annual returns on average by taking on too much risk, and poor portfolio management. It has not worked out that well in the past, but yes that is why many are here to learn. But we should recognize the past, and the past results when investor try to do it themselves.

    It starts with 'how much do you need by the way of bonds to manage risk?'.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, This Is Not Your Father's Retirement Plan: Constructing The 2015 Fill-The-Gap Portfolio [View article]
    The fees are very low in those funds, and very low for ETF options. The key is for investors to be aware of fees and the portfolio manager and history and choose accordingly.

    The Vanguard managed dividend growth fund with that market beat history has also been worth every penny of 31? basis points.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, This Is Not Your Father's Retirement Plan: Constructing The 2015 Fill-The-Gap Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks George much more money is lost by taking on too much risk or by taking on the challenge of self directing. As we know the vast majority of professionals and retail investors do not get the simple but sometimes attractive market gains that are available.

    Retirees could also go the ETF route with NOBL plus broad based bond index, or NOBL (Dividend Aristocrats) plus broad based bond index.

    From these levels of market valuation, investors might also consider 10% or more TLT for market insurance.

    Dale
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Week Can Make In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Thanks Nicolas, you'd have to think perhaps that the markets have not priced (into the super majors) sustained lower oil prices in the $50-70 range?

    Or perhaps that potential was already priced in as the majors have drastically underperformed the market over the last 3 years.

    Happy to be buying the oils and the consumer staples and telcos and industrials and other sectors (and geographic regions) every two weeks. So glad I don't have to think when I invest, that would be painful, ha. :)

    A real correction somewhere would be nice. A return to 'normal' and historical valuations might hold lots of long term promise.

    Dale
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jack Bogle Is Wrong On Foreign Investing [View article]
    I had a terrible Canadian home bias through the 2000's and that mistake paid off as I certainly crushed the U.S. benchmarks, and I beat the Canadian benchmarks by taking on additional risk of small caps and also took a liking to gold thanks to then working on the world's largest gold company, Barrick. Not properly diversified, but I got lucky.

    That Canadian home bias hurt my returns coming out of the recession. I quickly made the moves to adopt that Canada, U.S. and International exposure. That's the simple rebalanced mix in the Tangerine Portfolios and it has taught me a ton.

    http://bit.ly/1t1IpUJ

    Now I can reap the benefits of the very diversified sector exposure of the U.S. and international while my Canadian holdings might be under some pressure due to falling oil prices. Canadians (and others in foreign lands) with that mix are also benefiting from a strong U.S. dollar, and are getting a currency premium.

    Currency protection or diversification may be the play of the decade for U.S. investors over the next decade, who knows? Will the national balance sheets ever come into play?

    Dale
    Dec 25, 2014. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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