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Dale Roberts

 
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  • How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 [View article]
    Hi Chuck, thanks for addressing my question (I am no longer nameless, ha) from your Utiltiies as bond substitutes article. I am glad that this issue of bonds and risk can get the attention that it deserves.

    With all due respect, and I appreciate the work you put into this, my initial question is not answered. Instead you touched on redefining risk.

    Many investors do not like to see their portfolio’s value fall precipitously (aka volatility).

    Bonds are traditionally used to temper portfolio volatility (yes there are other tools). And bonds still today offer that inverse relationship to equities. Plot TLT vs the SP 500 over the last 5 years and they are the inverse mirror image of each other. They even meet (performance lines) in the middle upon occasion and then separate to go their separate ways. There is a brief time frame in that period when bonds and equities both delivered some positive returns. Recently the lines crossed, stocks went north and bonds (TLT) went south. Now the stocks might continue to do the heavy lifting in a balanced portfolio. And that’s fine.

    Risk has not been redefined by regulators in the U.S. or course. And as in Canada you do have to match the client’s risk profile to the portfolio’s risk level… according to the SEC and FINRA.

    One option of course, is that you ‘educate’ and move client’s risk tolerance level to a medium-high or high risk level. Perhaps that’s what you are doing?

    I was curious to see if there was a bond substitute for managing volatility, in your opinion. I would assume the answer is no.

    I am guessing that you still have many (risk averse) clients in bonds to temper volatility?
    Aug 30 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    yes to all of the above. again happy to hold those companies and many others with decades of dividends and dividend growth.

    and my ETFs save me money on the trading costs it would take to hold the level of diversification that I personally want. Coincidentally I did the math today on that as I am open to buying some of them individually. And I'm also happy to get my monthly income payments.

    thanks again.
    Aug 29 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And Beating The S&P 500 [View article]
    was thinking about that some more, the meet and separate proves the relationship.
    Aug 29 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And Beating The S&P 500 [View article]
    No need to argue the point, all you have to do is chart SP500 against tlt even over that 5 year period. whenever stocks needed bonds to pick up the slack they were there. Save for one period when they moved up together. now stocks are up and bonds are down, 500 vs tlt.

    It's as clear as can be. And not a point of contention.
    Aug 29 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    mcd underperformed against the market - in 2003 from 1999 down over twice as much as SP500.
    Aug 29 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    Hey conkjc, certainly they do have foreign exposure. Just try getting those funds back into the U.S. (to pay dividends) I have a few articles on that.

    And certainly the ETFs I hold have a nice history of dividend growth.

    I too am happy to hold KO, JNJ, PG and XOM.
    Aug 29 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Say Goodbye To Your Home Bias [View article]
    I would suggest being balanced and diversfied at all times to protect against the 2000-2008 period. If you held a diversified portfolio from 2000 (with International and Canadian exposure) you would be slightly above a U.S. home bias index.

    And actually if you were rebalancing and keeping your equity allocation consistent you would have been selling efa and canadian (profits) and loading up with U.S. equities from 2004 through 2009 pre U.S. market outperform.

    And beneficial for for currency exposure / diversification. That may be important one day.

    Thanks for the read.
    Aug 29 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Care Of Grandma's Money: A Redux [View article]
    With a small amount available to invest did you consider and ETF such as VYM. You'd have diversification, and then you could branch out to individual stock picking along the way?

    If one company runs into trouble, the portfolio and inital amount is at risk.
    Aug 29 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And Beating The S&P 500 [View article]
    Good point, and true, over those very brief periods. They threated to not be inverse correlated. It's not perfect month to month for sure. And there were periods when bonds and equities both did well.

    But when bonds needed to support the equities. That did occur, largely.

    Thanks for pointing that out.
    Aug 29 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And Beating The S&P 500 [View article]
    Really? Plot SP500 vs TLT over 5-years. An uncanny mirror image (inversely correleated). It continues today.

    The two lines even meet in the middle on a couple of occasions and then one goes up and one dips. They crossed in mid 2013, with the equities moving above.

    Thanks for allowing me to point that out. lol
    Aug 29 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    You might enjoy this. I did an exercise where is skimmed the top ten holdings of Vanguard's VIG. An incredible outperform for a period, and then not. 10 is not enough...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And then I added the top 15 and the top 20 holdings...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 29 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    Yes but who would have stayed the course on MCD? Most investors are not very patient, unfortunately.

    There's no reason to beleive that DG investors will be more patient than past patterns of behaviour of investors, or have higher risk tolerance.

    As Chowder has posted, just because you have a new strategy does not mean you behaviour will change (or something to that effect).

    And McDonald's could have run into real trouble. They corrected course, and I think that was due to management changes.

    All said, they are all reasons for holding a diversified portfolio with at least 15 or 20 names? Again, I would diversify internationally as well. Currency may be the greatest risk of U.S. investors today.

    There is not much in the way of currency protection for DG investors with home bias...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 29 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    And not so fast on the fast food McDonald's as well...

    But McDonald's investors would have seen some lean years over those long-term salad days. In fact, from early 1999 to the beginning of 2007 McDonald's showed a zero return on price. Factor in dividends for that 8 year period and McDonald's offered a 29% total return. That's a 3.23% annualized rate of return. It beat inflation, barely.

    Purchasing McDonald's in the period of 1998-2001 you would have had to watch your holdings drop in value by some 50-70% (from your purchase prices) to early 2003.

    That from my article McDonald's Fast Food Requires Investor Patience.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    How many divided growth investors would have that kind of patience? Some would, some would not. The signs were not always flashing green for McDonald's. They had real challenges. It looks easy from 2013.

    That said, even that period of MCD poor performance would have hampered the 5-stock portfolio's returns over that period.
    Aug 29 08:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Chip Dividend Value Strategy Delivers Solid Returns For Retirement Income [View article]
    Certainly glad to hold all five as components of the Dow 30 (DIA).

    It appears that you're offering these 5 great companies as a portfolio option, but of course the portfolio would present a great degree of risk, due to lack of diversification, and lack of currency exposure -- due to home bias. If one company gets hit hard the portfolio would fall precipitously, and risk the permanent loss of principal if one were forced to sell - (see GE).

    Here's my recent article Say goodbye to your home bias.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 29 08:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities - Today's Best Bond Alternative [View article]
    Hi Chuck, being a balanced portfolio it held stocks and bonds. And bonds held up well.

    It had lower volatility because it is a balanced portfolio.

    Next time it might be stocks doing the heavy lifting for bonds.

    I have no idea when interest rates will rise, or at what pace.
    Aug 28 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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