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Dale Roberts

 
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  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Glad to hear of those wonderful results. 2015 should be interesting.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Reason Why Indexers Will Likely Beat Active Stock Pickers [View article]
    "My observation is that the percentage of investors who could hold an all equity portfolio through a major correction (and not mess things up) is very very very small."

    Hi Bob, I think we just look at the historical returns of investors, including the chart above. The behavioiur (and results) of individual investors is well documented, and the reasons for the poor behaviour are also well researched.

    I would also throw in the personal observations (conversations) with hundreds upon hundreds upon hundred of investors, plus the same message delivered to me via emails and through the articles.

    As the numbers suggest too many investors cannot even withstand the volatility of a balanced portfolio. When we see risk free Treasuries and cash outperforming the average investor, that is very telling.

    Most investors do well through a bull market, and then the corrections come.

    More to come on that in a future article.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Thanks Bob, you too. Again, the dividend achievers (VIG) do have that long term market beat. Solid numbers for 2014.

    Article to follow, ironically my stock picks saved me in 2014, ha.

    I started the year with a beta of about .2 in our 3 discount brokerage accounts. I moved that up by going to about 50% equities.

    My combined returns for the 3 accounts for the year was 11%.

    So crazy risk adjusted returns.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Hi LB, VIG has a beat on the market through the market correction. It's all about the navigation through corrections.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    "It would take a Great Recession-like meltdown (and then some) to erase what I have gained from being in the market".

    Risk evaluation means recognizing that your paper gains could evaporate quickly. And then of course, asking yourself if you are OK with that event - that it would not cause you undue stress and cause you to make decisions based on watching your portfolio get cut in half or more.

    We also have to be prepared for the time underwater that it may take many years to rebuild that portfolio.

    That is the tough question and answer session. But it's worth a go.

    That said, it sounds like you have some bonds or balance as well. :)

    Some market insurance TLT may be a nice consideration for many investors. It can feel good when one thigh is going up 40% when the markets are going down 50%. It's nice to have something working in a meltdown.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Stock I Would Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    The proceeds are likely in cash. Mr. Buffett treats cash as an option and he does the math, and he feels that over the next several years or decade he can get a greater return by waiting for value to return to the market. His teacher taught him about price and valuations.

    It is perhaps nothing much against jnj (though that may play in), but more about his accumulation of cash - he has reduced so many positions and consolidated in a few public positions.

    As always long term success and failure is determined by how one navigates through market corrections.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    I don't know what will happen, but, if solar continues on its growth trend it could power most everything within how many years?

    The world will have to prepare, and we will have to be way out ahead, we won't burn every drop of oil and then make the major switch. If something gets developed and its cheaper, it will become source #1 and the oil will stay in the ground.

    I wish I could see the future, it must be incredible, and look like something we never imagined.

    I would put my money on the earth's energy source (the sun), but it's just a guess.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    We are now at long term 'normal'prices again.

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks do you have a link to those estimates or projections for xom with oil at $60 for an extended period?

    Dale
    Jan 18, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Being in the accumulation phase I continue to invest every two weeks (Tangerine Balanced), and once a month all discount brokerage account income goes to VIG and Apple and BRK.B.

    The markets will do what they will do. I will not invest based on my guess, but there is a strong possibility that my current investments into VIG may have no positive total returns for the next several years if there is a market correction. Higher rates may be that catalyst for lower PE ratios and lower stock prices. Perhaps oil issues will provide that opportunity to buy long term value? Who knows.

    Until then ... dollar cost averaging all the way.

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Hi Mike, no worries, I never tell anyone how to invest of course. I simply suggest that they know their risk tolerance level and invest (seek out) the style that might give them the best opportunity to stay they course. Research would suggest success or failure is largely based on activity through market corrections.

    I will certainly point out the obvious trends and styles and approach(es) that have worked best in the past, :) but from there it is up to each individual investor.

    And learning how to manage risk and acknowledge risk is very important.

    I truly like the Seeking Alpha mantra of Read. Decide. Invest.

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market 2015: A Sector By Sector Valuation Perspective - Part 1 An Overview [View article]
    Why are the PE ratios for the S&P 500 so different on the charts in this article, than from other sites such as mltpl.com, y charts, wsj and others. They are more favourable in this article. Year end report from Standard & Poor's had the trailing pe at 18.61. Long term market average is 15.25 according to bespoke.

    If we use the Shiller PE (the method that recognized that value in 2009) we are approaching the levels of the Great Depression. Forward projections based on that model from today's levels will suggest negative real returns over the next 5 to 10 years.

    A time to be prepared for sure.

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    Great article, yes the fear might be back. It may be a great year for the Permanent Portfolio.

    From jan 2014 to present an equal spy tlt gld would have delivered 17.2% vs 11.3% for spy.

    Even throw in 25% short term treasuries for 'cash' and it still delivers 13.1%.

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Join Them If You Can't Beat Them: Stop Picking Individual Stocks And Start Living An Easier Life [View article]
    It is a very expensive hobby for too many. It may be cheaper to take a month's vacation every year. :)

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Stock I Would Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    Warren sold most in the area of $68, today the stock is $104. Warren sold at a PE of 13.8 - today the PE is 24% more expensive with a PE above 17. The Shiller PE is even more unattractive.

    EBITDA 5-year growth is negative according to GuruFocus.

    And earnings growth has been driven partly by share buy backs. JNJ is one of the most aggressive on that front.

    Perhaps Warren sees JNJ as vulnerable in any real correction. But mostly we might assume that he does not see long term value in this company, at least not from today's (and 2012) valuations.

    Interesting link, thanks.

    Dale
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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