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Dale Roberts

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  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    The recession created incredible challenges for stock investors, even those investing primarily in dividend payers.

    Chuck did you not write an article stating that heading into the recession your tools moved you towards many of the dividend stalwarts of the day that were financials? That portfolio component would have been hit on the price side and the dividend side.

    Many of the financials were in that category of companies that had paid reliable dividends for decades (just like our Canadian banks from today that many of us hold) and were in many or most dividend portfolios.

    I think we'd have to look at many of the financials, including GE, to see what risks there were in the recession. Many more non financials were hit as well on the income and price side.

    Dale
    Jun 14 06:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    Nothing has changed, the markets are never 'normal'. There are many reasons to not like stocks or bonds from these levels or these yields. But most investors still need bonds (or their fixed pensions) and stocks for their risk management, whether that be in the accumulation phase or retirement phase. Especially today, bonds are likely even more important. Most money is lost due to investors taking on too much risk, that market fact repeats itself over and over again - and it will repeat in the next correction as well.

    As we know a laddered bond portfolio always does very well, even through recessions, keeping in that 5-7 year duration area. Mid to long term treasuries typically offer wonderful inverse relationship when needed.

    No nothing has changed. Investor psychology is as always, and the markets are always presenting their unique challenges and opportunities. The macro and geopolitical backdrop is always interesting, and different, and scary.
    Jun 14 06:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    "During the Great Recession, the S&P 500 Index, from peak to valley dropped 57.7%. TLT which is supposed to be very safe, I think, dropped 27.6% from peak to valley".

    Hi Chowder, actually TLT was wonderfully negatively correlated to the equity markets through the recession (and through all recessions). In 2007-2009 TLT offered a rebalancing opportunity or portfolio price protection that was amazing. TLT was up over 40% when the markets were approaching, or near their largest declines.

    From January of 2007 to end of 2008 TLT delivered a 47.8% positive return while the SP 500 was down by -(minus) 33.5%.

    Very important for readers to have and know these basic facts.
    Jun 14 06:09 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fearful When Others Are Greedy [View article]
    Great article, thanks so much.

    Dale
    Jun 13 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    That is true, but Canada's is funded, U.S. is a fantasy unfortunately. I would not count on it if I were an American taxpayer.

    They put in a alot as well, and may not get much of the return.

    Dale
    Jun 13 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip [View article]
    Thanks Mike, great post, and a very 'alarming' one at that. One would think that there will be a price to pay for very silly and dangerous policy, at some point.

    Dale
    Jun 13 06:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks Bob, I would be a fan of holding those higher income earners (with some non correlation delivered at times). Higher income can provide some price protection as it reduces the need to sell.

    Then again there is that simple strategy of bucketing, and with that, one simply wants real capital appreciation in the growth phases, delivered by broad markets or dividend growth stocks or even some smaller and mid cap or other growth strategies. The safety comes in the move to cash and bonds.

    I guess I will have to pick a lane when the time comes.
    Jun 13 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    I may save Cranky for when I get older, I'll likely need it. Ha.

    Dale
    Jun 12 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    I will see if I can run those on excel and see what happens. it appeared to help in some periods and hinder in others.
    Jun 12 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Should You Add To Your Portfolio? [View article]
    I agree with boom boom here, there appears to be very little growth in the Telco's surprisingly. They are likely good bond "substitutes" - ya stocks are not bonds. But perhaps little growth on that side. Banks and pipes all the way. Would avoid the grocery biz in Canada, no growth too much U.S. competition from WalMart and Target if they stick it out.

    There are some great high yield options as well in the food biz such as pizza pizza and the keg, boston pizza etc. Crescent Point, other energy.

    Dale
    Jun 12 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks 8566031, many will go that route. I think that can all be covered by broad based index for stocks and bonds and good 'ol cash. Again, it doesn't appear to matter if the inflation protection comes from rising income, or rising stock prices.

    Investing is always much more simple than we can imagine.

    Dale
    Jun 12 06:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Hi Lionel, can you please explain the test portfolio again, not sure what you are looking for there. Are you saying start all in cash?

    Thanks, Dale
    Jun 12 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks glinsight, yes dividends were hammered in the recession. I think there can be some false security there. When one has to leave a company behind, all that will matter is the value - how much do you then have to go shopping.

    But yes income can become important and helpful as logic would dictate.

    But in the end, for inflation protection, it is becoming obvious to me that it does not matter if that protection comes from dividends or price appreciation, or what always exists - a combination of the two, total return. That's what Warren is saying, without stating it directly.

    All that matters in the accumulation phase it total return (with risk management), and it's largely true in the spending phase as well.

    Dale
    Jun 12 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks Surfer, yes Warren is a little bit different than you and me. But he does reco the index for most (all) investors and his retirement suggestion was certainly worth a look. His faith in stocks is not without merit as the articles demonstrate. Again, it would work most often, surprisingly.
    Jun 12 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time Warren Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    thanks Tristano, I agree. I have written on the importance of international diversification on a few occasions. The article is look at the basic portfolio allocation and risk. There's so much to consider by the way of income and the actual equity holdings. But Buffet is a fan of U.S. companies, and has little regard for direct international exposure.

    The U.S. had that lost decade, or regions did not. I am a fan of Canada/U.S./International for equity holdings. Bonds I/we keep local.

    The international and currency exposure may be the play of the decade(s) for U.S. investors. I should maybe include that in my closing tag of all articles.
    Jun 12 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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