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Dallas Salazar

 
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  • Medley And The Monopoly Money
    Today, 11:50 AM MDLY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • MDLY is an immediate acquisition target with the reality of no growth and continued low rates driving the M&A market.
    • MDLY has been able to AUM growth shame its peers since 2010 when a select group of institutions realized what the company was doing behind the scenes.
    • MDLY's financials are a case study for how to print money and very closely do it for free.
  • MobileIron: Industry Tailwinds, Financial Progress, And Operating Flexibility
     • Yesterday, 5:38 PM MOBL 12 Comments

    Summary

    • MOBL has made great progress in making a model shift from perpetual license to subscription.
    • MOBL showed in its non-GAAP financials that it's gaining ground in this lucrative space.
    • MOBL has plenty of runway to its next cash raise and get even get aggressive with acquisitions if it wants.
  • Michaels Might Be Turning The Corner; The Next Few Quarters Will Tell
     • Yesterday, 1:42 PM MIK 5 Comments

    Summary

    • MIK had a surprising and impressive Q3 that showed that MIK's longer term updating and growth initiatives are gaining traction.
    • MIK was able to deleverage using its cash balance it had built through nine months - if it can deleverage while growing we have a different story to talk about.
    • I've been bearish on MIK since initiating coverage but this quarter established a new momentum, we'll see if MIK can carry it forward to Q4.
  • Malibu Boats Continues To Make Incremental Progress
     • Tue, Dec. 23 MBUU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • MBUU shares have underperformed my expectations but the overall bull case will keep me invested at least one more quarter.
    • MBUU's recent acquisition of its Australian licensee should help bump margins and expand the company's financials Pro Forma.
    • MBUU even inclusive of its acquisition and a hefty litigation settlement payment still has plenty of liquidity and flexibility to operate.
  • 'Confidence From The Sell-Side' To Drive Moelis Shares Higher In 2015
     • Tue, Dec. 23 MC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • MC should greatly benefit from a productive M&A environment in 2015 - the first it's seen since inception.
    • MC is defensively positioned to product share price if interest rates hike and cause some restructuring demand in 2015.
    • MC's ability to generate FCF and its commitment to return capital to shareholders only enhances the total return of ownership with special dividends being highly visible.
  • The Market Finally Values K2M Group Holdings
     • Tue, Dec. 23 KTWO Comment!

    Summary

    • KTWO stands to grow margins in FY15 as its US based sales team matures - I'm looking for this to drive share price.
    • KTWO has no debt, clean capitalization, and an expanded revolver than will allow it flexibility to continue growing at ~20%.
    • I believe the market will increase its PSR multiple it uses to value KTWO from 4 to 6. This should imply 30% upside to share price near term.
  • Investar Holding Corp Poised For Slow Growth Or Contraction In 2015
     • Tue, Dec. 23 ISTR Comment!

    Summary

    • ISTR has a very risky, although currently well performing, loan book. I expect this book to underperform if the local economy slows or interest rates rise.
    • I believe ISTR's AFS investments have peaked in performance and valuation.
    • ISTR hasn't been able to drive net income under ideal circumstances and should the local economy slow I think this hurts its income statement in a big way.
  • La Quinta's Follow Through Of Operating Excellence And Free Cash Flow Generation Make It A Growth Favorite In 2015
     • Mon, Dec. 22 LQ Comment!

    Summary

    • LQ had yet another strong quarter of non-financial and financial metric growth.
    • LQ managed to delever while growing as a result of its substantial FCF generation.
    • LQ is significantly undervalued when compared to peers and I believe in an upside scenario it could trade between 45%-83% higher.
  • HII Technologies: Margin Expansion And A Look At Pro Forma Operations With Recent Acquisition
    Sat, Dec. 20 HIIT Comment!

    Summary

    • HIIT shares have been hurt with lower natural gas pricing but operations have actually made sequential improvements since 1H reporting.
    • HIIT showed margin improvements as a stand-alone company and reported very encouraging Pro Forma results inclusive of its recent acquisition.
    • HIIT shares should be just fine longer term as the company has made operational progress that will be noticed when natural gas pricing improves.
  • Imprivata: Accelerating Losses And Evaporating Margins
     • Sat, Dec. 20 IMPR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • IMPR's losses greatly accelerated into the 9M Y/Y with the quarter's results looking just as bad.
    • IMPR's inability to sell its services and product at anything close to profitability has crushed margins across the board.
    • IMPR has plenty of cash and liquidity to drag its story out for the midterm which makes this a name to consistently keep on a short board.
  • CEO Brian Collins: One Horizon Group Software To Be Pre-Built Into Device Operating Systems In Q1/15
    Fri, Dec. 19 OHGI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • OHGI has taken a major step forward in that its software will come prebuilt into operating systems for telecom partner devices in Q1/15.
    • This removes a significant barrier to use and I believe shrinks the top end of the monetization funnel for telecom partner customers adoption.
    • OHGI also announces that telecom operators have increased their efforts to promote usage of the software which should speed OHGI revenue recognition.
    • The narrative at OHGI could quickly begin changing from being largely launch based to monetization based soon.
  • The Heritage Insurance Hurricane: Why Heritage Will Continue To Outperform
     • Fri, Dec. 19 HRTG Comment!

    Summary

    • HRTG has several competitive advantages that can't be replicated.
    • HRTG is the beneficiary of coming of age at the right time, a benefit that it hasn't wasted.
    • HRTG is up 50% since early June and stands to continue its strong performance in 2015.
  • HealthEquity Should Run Hard Into 2015
     • Fri, Dec. 19 HQY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • HQY is quite possibly the most attractive healthcare based stock to own going into FY15.
    • HQY has been able to grow its income statement metrics like clockwork the last several years and isn't slowing with size.
    • I believe HQY is just now reaching an economy of scale as evidenced by the minimal margin expansion it has seen Y/Y - look for increases soon.
    • HQY has a huge C&CE balance that should be deployed to a more productive endpoint soon - I'm expecting an acquisition in the near term.
  • My Application To Be Datawatch's CEO: A Review Of Operations And A Turnaround Plan
     • Thu, Dec. 18 DWCH 10 Comments

    Summary

    • DWCH has destroyed its shareholders' portfolios as a result of being directionless, unfocused, confused, and inefficient.
    • DWCH doesn't have much going for it but it does have plenty of time to execute a turnaround based on cash burn rate and C&CE on hand.
    • DWCH needs to execute on four steps to have a successful turnaround, I've outlined these for management.
    • DWCH isn't a lost cause but it will need to have early momentum for shares to ever reach the levels they traded at just one year ago.
  • This Long Time GrubHub Bull Is Feeling The Pressure Despite Another Great Quarter
     • Thu, Dec. 18 GRUB 16 Comments

    Summary

    • GRUB put together another stellar quarter operationally which is no surprise at this point.
    • GRUB grew its C&CE balance ~$50 million during Q3 as a result of a secondary offering and now boasts ~$278 million in funds.
    • GRUB needs to find more productive outlets for its cash than low yielding investments before its up and coming competition gains too much momentum.
    • With Amazon and InstCart both entering the space indirectly or directly I've moved GRUB to an actively managed long position - this wasn't the case one quarter ago.
  • Defending FMSA Holding As A Generational Buy
     • Wed, Dec. 17 FMSA 14 Comments

    Summary

    • FMSA is being punished by the markets because the underlying commodity that drives demand of its services has fallen off a cliff.
    • This is fair to a point but with 40% of its pre-drop market cap being gone I feel FMSA is trading at a discount.
    • FMSA will be just fine longer term as American energy, especially in the natural gas sector, isn't going anywhere and it will need FMSA to operate.
  • Metaldyne Performance Group Is An Under The Radar IPO With Great Margin Expansion
     • Wed, Dec. 17 MPG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MPG has expanded its gross, operating, and net margins Y/Y in a big way and I think it is on the front end of more expansion.
    • MPG should be able to realize several synergies with its recent combination of its three stand-alone businesses - look for this to drive financials in the short-term.
    • MPG moved substantially all of its cash outflows from contractual obligations to 2019, a move that will give it huge operational flexibility.
  • Recent Developments Only Further The Diplomat Pharmacy Bull Case
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Dec. 16 DPLO 8 Comments

    Summary

    • DPLO has issued three PRs since its Q3 earnings announcements - all three are productive in moving the DPLO story forward and confirming the share price rise.
    • DPLO's announcement that it will partner with healthcare services company Novation and the confirmation of its potential to license at a subsequent conference are big potential drivers of revenue.
    • DPLO has significant competitive advantages and tailwinds that should propel shares higher and higher into the foreseeable future. Buy DPLO for the long term.
  • Selling FCB Ahead Of Potential AFS Issues
     • Tue, Dec. 16 FCB Comment!

    Summary

    • FCB showed large levels of NIM contraction which was unexpected considering the size and overall yield of its AFS portfolio.
    • FCB's AFS portfolio now becomes a risk to overall operations with just under half the positions sitting at an unrealized loss and a potentially rising interest rate environment ahead.
    • FCB is a sell considering its over performance from expectation and considering its operational risk being driven largely by its AFS portfolio.
  • Sequential Improvements From Everyday Health And A Big Acquisition
     • Mon, Dec. 15 EVDY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • EVDY has shown improvements to both its "checkpoint" non-financial data and to its financial data.
    • EVDY recently acquired DoctorDirectory.com for $65 million - an acquisition that I think willl be accretive right away.
    • EVDY shares should be accumulated going into 2015 on sequential improvements to its fundamentals.
  • Boot Barn Deserves A Second Look
     • Sat, Dec. 13 BOOT Comment!

    Summary

    • BOOT grew its revenue 19% Y/Y while holding its SG&A flat on an actual dollar basis and driving it down 400 basis points as a percentage of revenue.
    • BOOT has shown during F1H/15 that it's turned a serious corner on profitability and that it could be on the front-end of a massive margin expansion.
    • BOOT has been able to do all of the above without having in-house distribution or a relevant DTC channel.
    • Buy BOOT.
  • C1 Financial: Managing NIM Defensively And Offensively Positioned For Rising Interest Rates
     • Sat, Dec. 13 BNK Comment!

    Summary

    • BNK has zero securities exposure to rising rates and has a significant weighting of its loan portfolio to variable rate loans.
    • BNK has managed its NIM contraction on the 9M by weighting a majority of its maturities to the middle part of the duration barbell.
    • BNK is a unique financial institution that deserves a second look by investors. Don't miss this under the radar name.
  • Neff's Lower IPO Pricing Really Hurts Going Into FY15
     • Sat, Dec. 13 NEFF Comment!

    Summary

    • NEFF needed to price its IPO higher to pay down its substantial Second Lien Loan debt that is accruing interest at 7.25% per annum.
    • NEFF should also be seeing top-line pressure from lower CAPEX coming from the Oil and Gas industry which generated 13% of trailing 12 month revenues.
    • NEFF is an avoid at this point as serious questions remain about near-term operations.
  • Antero Resources Will Lead The E&P Charge When Nat Gas Pricing Turns
     • Thu, Dec. 11 AR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AR shares are way oversold but should drift lower into capitulation as natural gas pricing still has at least 4 weeks before reaching a bottom.
    • AR has infrastructural advantages over peers, better hedging than peers, and a well structured debt balance that make this the name to own in the E&P space.
    • I estimate that AR shares can double in 9 months after reaching capitulation in mid to late January.
  • TrueCar Remains One Of The Best High Growth Names To Own
     • Thu, Dec. 11 TRUE 13 Comments

    Summary

    • TRUE's key metric growth was impressive and shouldn't be overlooked.
    • TRUE is beginning to see noticeable network effects and its brand resonate with its audience - this led to a 25% uptick in unit sales on 1% uptick acquisition spend.
    • TRUE is a buy at these levels and the volatility of the last 90 days should soon smooth out. Buy TRUE.
  • Affiliated Managers Group Continues To Be Undervalued
     • Tue, Dec. 9 AMG Comment!

    Summary

    • AMG has shown incredible operational improvements for the 9M despite facing its largest headwinds in 5 years - its income statement displays this in amazing fashion.
    • AMG's sequential AUM contraction was more a factor of performance rather than outflows, when performance reverts to the mean so should AUM growth and fee growth.
    • AMG is undervalued according to several modeling metrics that I have used to historically track its share price.
  • The Best Company In Bain's Portfolio: Bright Horizons Family Solutions
     • Tue, Dec. 9 BFAM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • BFAM has turned the corner operationally and now has a free flowing income statement.
    • BFAM has generated substantial cash from operations the last several years - this has now translated to explosive FCF growth.
    • BFAM is a great opportunity to own a defensive stock with excellent growth prospects.
  • ReWalk Longs Could Have A Long Road Ahead
     • Mon, Dec. 8 RWLK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • RWLK still trades at a significant premium to its closest comparable peer.
    • RWLK has moved operations along and did have some positive fundamental developments but at this valuation it should continue to trade lower regardless.
    • Avoid or sell RWLK until much lower prices.
  • The Story Is Changing At Castlight But Is It Real?
     • Sat, Dec. 6 CSLT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors still don't have granularity about CSLT's contracts or many other material data necessary to accurately value the company.
    • Operations, however, have improved and are showing that CSLT may be on to something special if it isn't all smoke and mirrors.
    • I recommend waiting on Q4 granularity that management has promised but there's no denying the financials have changed the once all out bearish narrative.
  • CareDX's AlloMap Continues To Gain Traction As The Company Shows Sequential Quarters Of Profitability
     • Fri, Dec. 5 CDNA Comment!

    Summary

    • CDNA continues to have incredibly strong financials.
    • CDNA's AlloMap test is growing the top and bottom line sequentially with the company posting sequential quarters of profitability and a 9M profitability for the first time.
    • Accumulate CDNA shares via a DCA approach.
  • Restating The Amber Road Bull Case
     • Thu, Dec. 4 AMBR Comment!

    Summary

    • AMBR is oversold on the news of a lost customer contract that contributed ~$5 million in annualized revenue.
    • AMBR still has zero debt, still has cash to fund growth out at least until mid-2016, and still is showing Adjusted EBITDA progress.
    • AMBR is a buy at these prices and has strong fundamentals.
  • Aspen Aerogels: Continue To Short, Continue To Get Paid
     • Thu, Dec. 4 ASPN Comment!

    Summary

    • I don't believe ASPN can sell to the US markets in size at profitable pricing.
    • ASPN needs substantial funding to complete its growth strategy which should be extremely dilutive after a bad 2015.
    • ASPN, according to an industry insider source, has no value prop.