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Dan Braem

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  • Steel Excel - Shell Company Turning Into Profitable Business [View article]
    Forbid is not really the right word. "Limit" is.
    Mar 24 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter And Report [View article]
    I disagree about it doesn't matter that they are American vs. European. Makes a world of difference IMO.
    Mar 14 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter And Report [View article]
    Briar - I was just going to respond before I noticed your comments on European style options.

    Buffett loves float, long tail insurance, and the US economy. Writing puts on the US index (and perhaps others) completely reflects his investment style.

    Not sure how receiving cash in year 1 and paying a much lower amount in the distant future is a bad deal. Just a great insurance deal for Berkshire, which is what I wrote at the time and has played out accordingly.
    Mar 6 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter And Report [View article]
    David, you continue to provide the best commentary on insurance companies.

    You raise an interesting point where you state "other insurance companies can't do this".

    Seems like Buffett has had some benefits for quite a while. I remember similar commentary from 20 years ago. Perhaps originally he received some preference with Nebraska regulators.

    In today's time, maybe instead of going all in equities during the crisis, he bought preferred shares with option kickers to satisfy the insurance requirements (e.g. BAC, GS, etc). Maybe he structured the Heinz deal (with some preferred elements) to allay insurance regulations/requirements. Perhaps this is why this structure is so favorable, and a future template for BRK. Doing all these deals with large portions of fixed income with some equity upside is quite brilliant really.
    Mar 2 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    I have owned this starting at .07 before the reverse split. Nice article, but I would prefer less written about this than more.

    The author makes some good points, and I would like to throw in another. I believe that this could be a cash cow for years, so the question becomes what to do with the capital?

    Dividend? Share buyback? Business expenditures? Pay down debt? Or something more creative?
    Feb 15 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience: The Key To Succeeding With Safeway [View article]
    Mark - I agree, and have been super bullish since $17 (thanks to the idea given to me by a friend). The question is why so many firms were bearish on the stock at $17.

    The company will either go private via the method you suggested, or via the share buybacks.

    Either way, it is a win (although I haven't been a buyer up here).
    Oct 28 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience: The Key To Succeeding With Safeway [View article]
    A good price was $25 when I said it was a screaming buy on these boards. Now you just wait.
    Oct 23 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Harry Long's 'You're Welcome Planet Earth: The Most Powerful Trading System Ever Publicly Revealed' [View article]
    Mick - I can't reveal too much. But this is a trading system - not an investment in Apple or Gold as you mentioned.

    Also, the system has beat the S&P. So the fact that the S&P has been in a bull market merely suggested the trading system has outperformed the S&P over the same time frame.
    Aug 15 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway's Exit Out Of Canada, The Math Done For You [View article]
    So the company is worth $6.2B (mkt cap) and will spend $2B in buybacks? What about the rest of the cash flow?

    I think there will be more buybacks and more dividend raises.

    And I just bought more b/c $25 and change doesn't value this company properly.
    Jun 13 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: In The Discount Aisle For A Reason [View article]
    Safeway is one of my top three positions and has been ridiculously cheap for way too long. I think it was priced in the low 20's simply because of lazy wall street analysis. Blackhawk? Who cares? Real estate development? Who cares? How much of the debt relates to real estate or share buybacks? As we now see, assets can be sold to pay down debt.

    I have to see how the Canadian transaction plays out, but this may be a 40 stock and not a 30 dollar stock.

    As a friend of mine said yesterday, SWY sold their Canada business for more than the entire market cap of SWY. If SWY wasnt a value play, I dont know what is.
    Jun 13 07:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loews - 23% Undervalued With Protected Downside [View article]
    Well done.
    May 29 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Staples: Like Apple At $700 Or Gold At $1900 [View article]
    I have never bought gld or gold stocks, but I started on Friday. Obama and Ben are forcing me into this investment.

    I also own Apple at these levels (slightly higher).

    Consumer staples stocks are a function of supply and demand. Too much supply (investment funds) chasing too little safe yield (i.e. staples stocks).

    As a value investor, I see the best values in some smaller cap names.
    Apr 14 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Last Year I Said Sell -- Buy Now? [View article]
    If FCF got cut in half from the last fiscal year and then stabilized, would the current stock price justify such events?

    Stated differently, what market cap would you put on a company with $200B in cash (not too far away) and recurring annual FCF of $20B?
    Mar 13 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 'Bend It Like Buffett' Stocks (Plus 25 More) [View article]

    It isn't public, but my gut tells me Buffett would love to buy Mars. Any thoughts?

    Hershey is interesting because the trustees would likely never allow a sale of the company - if they were, Berkshire may be on the short list.
    Mar 1 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MetLife Is A Best Insurance Bet [View article]
    I am a sucker for "hidden assets". For example, Loews carries its hotel business on the books for 200 million. Not indicative of FMV.

    Any thoughts as it relates to MET?
    Feb 24 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment