Dan Butterfield

China Mobile Should Have a Head Start in E-Reader Race

Interesting article Paul. Thanks.

Might be Q1 or Q2 2010 before Apple's iTablet appears.It will be interesting to see if it comes 3G ready. If so, China Unicom is the logical partner in China. It will of course be much more than an e-book reader and priced (higher) accordingly.

Hanwang and Apple have also been busy. Apple's has licensed Hanwang's character recognition technology for their devices. Still no word on Apple's settlement of the "iPhone" trademark dispute with Hanwang. I have to presume it has been resolved amicably (Yuan changed hands) given China Uincom's official "iPhone" promotions.

I'm still holding out hope for an iPhone deal with China Mobile. If it happens in the next 24 months, it will most likely a 2G model that will run on China Mobile's EDGE network.

7 Clues Pointing to an Imminent iPhone China Launch

@KenC

The headline was written by Seeking Alpha editors... so you'll have to ask them where the other 3 clues went :)

My original headline was - iPhone in China – “Are we there yet?”

By the way... there is some breaking news today. I'm filing this under "plausible rumor" - Rumor: China Unicom signs 3-year iPhone exclusive? iphonasia.com/?p=5936


On Jul 27 06:10 PM KenC wrote:

> Nice insight, Dan, but what happened to the last 3 Clues, or did
> the copy editor not read your post?

China Mobile: Tea Leaves Give Mixed Reading

@Ryan you said "I see AAPL doing two different deals; they are much too protective of their brand to let it get away from them in China. But they also won't spurn CHL; 400m customers is too many to ignore."

I agree ... Apple's first deal in PRC may have to be with China Mobile ... Building a special (still just guesswork) "TD iPhone 3G for China Mobile" presents a real dilemma for Apple ... This type of crippling customization is an almost unthinkable divergence in strategy for Apple and I can already hear the “no ways!” … However, China (MIIT and other ministries) may have pushed hard for just such a compromise as a way to promote their nascent TD-SCDMA network. Think of this compromise as Apple’s entrance fee into China’s highly controlled handset market. The good news is that a large share of Apple’s risks/costs in developing this customized TD iPhone 3G may be born by China Mobile’s parent CMCC (i.e. China). More >
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../

China Mobile: Tea Leaves Give Mixed Reading

Nice article Ryan.

I thought it was interesting to read recent comments from China Mobile's CEO re Apple's App Store ... Wang Jianzhou gave Apple and Steve Jobs kudos for the tremendous success with the iPhone and App Store. Yet it is apparent that China Mobile wants to control the entire wireless value added services platform. Wang Jianzhou has even hinted about building their own App Store and even a wireless handset operating system that supports China Mobile's Monternet VAS.

Few handsets today are delivering a superior net browsing experience and China Mobile is none too pleased with the initial crop of TD-SCDMA ready handsets (when people don't like your network, blame the phone). They have high hopes for the forthcoming crop of TD-SCDMA models from Nokia, HTC/Android and the rumored but yet to be confirmed TD iPhone 3G from Apple.

My hope is that Apple will have two iPhone deals in China ... One with China Mobile ... the aforementioned "customized" TD iPhone 3G, and a second deal with China Unicom to deliver a more standard iPhone 3G.

China MIIT has dropped several recent hints over issuance of all three 3G licenses within the next 90 days. I wouldn't hold my breath ... but it is looking like this just might happen. China Unicom has also hinted that they will be ready to launch their W-CDMA network by mid-2009. This will bring some legitimate competition to China's mobile market.

It's my belief that China Unicom would be more willing to give free reign to handset makers' services and innovations - such as Apple's (e.g. App Store, Mobile Me, Wifi, iTunes [someday] and in the future "wave-pay")

In my view China Mobile attempting to control the entire VAS ecosystem is not going to work for many hundreds of millions of wireless customers and China Mobile stands to lose customers to China Unicom and China Telecom if they insist on over-customization and total control of handsets.

~ Dan Butterfield, iPhonAsia

Apple Isn't Recession-Proof

@Brewer
<< Nokia has a 'touch based' device. Keep in mind, the rotary dial phone is also a touch based device >>

Still laughing ... thanks for making my night!

iPhone in China - What It Will Mean

China Mobile and China Unicom are in the hunt for an iPhone deal. 3G licenses have yet to be issued in China. This may happen soon after the Olympic games. It is most probable the China Mobile will run TD-SCDMA and China Unicom W-CDMA. The iPhone 3G will support W-CDMA however it will not support TD-SCDMA. iPhone 3G will be backward compatible to China Mobile's GRPS/EDGE network and there is a fair chance that China Mobile will also be granted a W-CDMA license.

More here on iPhone in China:
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../

Apple's iChat and China: The Perfect Marriage

AlphaRob -
<<iChat will need to be made available for PC's as Apple have done with Safari.>>
IMHO you'll get your wish ...
www.qqoz.com/qq/7/1338...

Auntie & vitaminc -
Next gen iPhone will not support TD-SCDMA and it will support W-CDMA the 3G license to be issued to China Unicom/Netcom (license to be issued within 3 to 18 months). Notwithstanding China's political and technical issues with 3G ... next gen iPhone will work today in China as it be backward compatible with China Mobile's EDGE/GPRS network. It's a fair bet that China Mobile will obtain both a TD-SCDMA (100%) and W-CDMA (not certain but probable) 3G license. I do not believe China will delay issuance of 3G licenses much past the Olympic games. The delay is a subterfuge to give the "TD" protocol every chance to succeed. And it must fly for China to save face ... Think Spruce Goose. Yet the carriers and important companies that support the telecom industry in China would prefer to ditch the China built TD-SCDMA and move on the international 3G standards and eventually LTE.

Back to Apple ... Given the high probably that China Unicom and China Mobile will obtain W-CDMA, both are viable carrier partners for Apple's iPhone. I expect one or both will announce a deal with Apple and it will happen in 2008.

More >
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../

idannyb.wordpress.com/.../

idannyb.wordpress.com/...-china’s-td-scdma-3g-m...

Chinese Tech Stock Weekly Summary

Regarding Apple and China Mobile "have called talks off to launch iPhone" ... That is old news and not accurate news. iPhone will officially be launched in China albeit much of the Pacific Rim (via SingTel, et. al.) will come before China. More here >
idannyb.wordpress.com/.../
and here >
idannyb.wordpress.com/...-china’s-td-scdma-3g-m...

Regarding the six handset manufacturers chosen for TD-SCDMA launch .... The Ministry of Information Industry has issued the first licenses to vendors to operate 3G mobile handsets, using its home grown technology TD-SCDMA. They are:

v ZTE

v Hisense

v LG

v Samsung

v Lenovo

v Postcom

idannyb.wordpress.com/

4 Million iPhones - Not Good Enough

make that 10 million (no $)

4 Million iPhones - Not Good Enough

On Apple F1Q07 (Qtr End 12/30/06) Earnings Call, Tim Cook clarified that the 10 million iPhone sales goal is for "end of calendar year" 2008. My original assumption was that this would be a running total (cumulative) over an 18-month timeline ending 12-31-08.

However, after reviewing the 2007 MacWorld Keynote ... Steve Jobs clearly states the objective is $10 million iPhone sales in 2008 ... "in our first full year in the market ... in [calendar year] 2008"
See image here - thumbsnap.com/v/NJgSKA...