Let me first start with my macro view on the current state of the US consumer:

We have a 70% consumer based economy, and roughly 20% of the average US household’s net worth was wiped out in 2008. In addition, for the first time since WWII, the consumer price index, producer price index, and wages are falling at the same time. Add in job losses of over 5 million in the past year, fear of future job losses and real estate prices still getting battered, the US consumer is finally starting to delever, pay down debt and guess what? Save.

Think back to 2003. 50 Cent was topping the charts with his Get Rich or Die Tryin album and Martha Stewart was being indicted for insider trading.

Besides late last year, that was the last time Trinity Industries (TRN) traded around this price. Trinity has gotten beaten up over the past year as the global growth story came crashing down and commodities tumbled at the end of 2008. The plunging price of oil crushed the demand for TRN's high growth wind tower business while the decimation of commodity prices, the global growth story and plunge of Baltic Dry Shipping Index all contributed to the slowing in demand for Trinity's rail car business.

Where is the smart money hiding? The absolute easiest slam dunk short of 2008 was the REITs. People were hiding their money in REITs last year during the summer and early fall. It was pretty obvious vacancies would increase, new malls would stop being built, and the massive debt of these companies would be hard to roll over in a tight credit environment. Most importantly, REIT investors get nice dividends that sure looked in jeopardy of not paying. Look at the sector now. Most of the stocks have lost at least 50% of their value since then. I was short [[SPG]], and in my mind, the REITs themselves were layup shorts. I digress.

The point is when every analyst loves a stock or sector and earnings seem to be steamrolling, I usually try to find holes in the story. Enter the education and training services stocks: Strayer (STRA), Apollo (APOL) and American Public Education (APEI). I will focus on STRA as my short candidate.