Comments on Dan Carroll's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/dan-carroll/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-529335 529335 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 02:52:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-527618 527618 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 02:28:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-527599 527599 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 01:20:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-527142 527142 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:27:38 -0400
You mentioned the balance sheet is strong and that alone makes many other retailers better candidates for the short play. Companies like Ann Taylor (ANN) or Quiksilver (ZQK) are in much more perilous situations.

I'm not saying that your short won't work...but if I was doing it, I might sell puts against the short for some extra protection.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-527039 527039 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:21:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140556-bed-bath-beyond-looks-ready-to-plummet?source=feed#comment-526786 526786 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:57:36 -0400
Also short BBBY.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-470313 470313 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 17:19:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-395056 395056 Thu, 19 Feb 2009 10:50:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-391436 391436 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:19:17 -0500
Three different scenarios at play here;

1. What you THINK will happen

2. What you WANT to happen

3. What is ACTUALLY happening...

Looks to me what you are betting on is options 1 & 2. Your theories may at some point end up proving to be correct. TRN could again become a $25 dollar stock. The important question here though is when? If you must absolutely buy, why not wait until it hits $5 then purchase, which is where the stock is headed right now... Couple things to consider: the NYSE is completely unraveling right now. These once fertile grounds are quickly becoming a graveyard for out of favor companies. Technicals are horrible right now, with no end in sight to the downside. NOTHING in the NYSE is worth touching at the moment. Also, just because the possiblilty of a stimulus package exists, and there is also the chance that stimulus package will contain some provisions for infrastructure, which may or may not end up directly benefitting TRN, what exactly leads you to believe that these benefits will be passed on to shareholders?
TRN management has done an absolutely horrible job the last 20 years in creating shareholder value through the biggest bull market in history! Please. Why would the next 20 years be any different? Just my two cents, but you gotta come up with something more concrete than "these are the lowest levels seen since 2003...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-391249 391249 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:41:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-391159 391159 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 18:35:44 -0500
will you average down at these levels? Chris]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-391069 391069 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:32:49 -0500
As of 2/14/09
TRINITY INDS INC COM 896522109 5,843 370,751 SH SOLE

As of 9/30/08
GENDELL, JEFFREY L. 8,859,140 11.14 $227,945,672 30-Sep-08 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-390943 390943 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:00:29 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-390936 390936 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:54:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120772-i-think-trinity-industries-will-soar-once-again?source=feed#comment-390221 390221 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 08:15:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-390054 390054 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 01:09:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-385543 385543 Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:32:08 -0500
Strayer down huge today. Good call. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-372650 372650 Sun, 01 Feb 2009 14:59:21 -0500
I look at this from the other direction as you do. Even assuming these companies weren't overvalued by every conceivable measure IMO, I'm not so sure the outlook for them gets better because of an economic downturn. I think the reverse is more likely.

These for-profit universities are extremely expensive and with the economy down, there's absolutely no guarantee that one will find a job after obtaining their degree. Hence, why spend tens of thousands of dollars on a second-rate education when you're not even sure if your investment will ever pay off?

Plus, the other thing to think about - the people attending these universities are normally already employed. They go to the for-profit universities because they are more flexible than traditional universities. As unemployment moves above 10%, people are suddenly going to find themselves with more time and with little need for the flexibility offered by DeVry, Strayer, UofP, etc. In such a scenario, a state school with dramatically lower tuition fees is much more attractive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-372445 372445 Sun, 01 Feb 2009 09:34:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-372439 372439 Sun, 01 Feb 2009 09:24:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-370465 370465 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:48:54 -0500
1) Yes, the CEO did sell 95% of his stake- this is VERY concerning and why I will probably move out of the stock to another education company.

2) All of the education companies have been exceeding earnings estimates... with such a tough job market, many people are going to go back to school to improve their prospects--- yes even in a tough environment. Their job is most important to them... and these companies can help them not only get a job, but also one that pays much better than before at a reasonable price.

With the economy taking a nosedive for the foreseeable future, low-cost secondary education may just be the way of the future and companies like these stand to benefit and this is reflected in the industry's impressive recent results.

Even if it is overvalued, it is too tough a short because it is too easy to get wiped out with so much momentum. Better call would probably be buying a longer term put.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-369443 369443 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:45:04 -0500 Stocks that are overvalued in our opinion include : APOL, COCO, ESI

Good piece

thanks P]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117084-the-short-case-on-strayer-education?source=feed#comment-369014 369014 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:13:13 -0500