Comments on Dan Grundig's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/dan-grundig/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-818171 818171 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 23:07:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-739282 739282 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:09:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-483130 483130 Provenge is a treatment that requires invasive surgery for every > single patient treated. A sample of the tumor has to be taken and > analyzed in the lab in order to produce a drug tailored specifically > for that patient. That is a huge barrier to the potential profits > of Dendreon. The overhead on Provenge is much, much heavier than > on Avastin, for example, which is mass produced in factories.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:21:17 -0400

On Apr 19 03:06 PM User 204405 wrote:

> Provenge is a treatment that requires invasive surgery for every
> single patient treated. A sample of the tumor has to be taken and
> analyzed in the lab in order to produce a drug tailored specifically
> for that patient. That is a huge barrier to the potential profits
> of Dendreon. The overhead on Provenge is much, much heavier than
> on Avastin, for example, which is mass produced in factories.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-478216 478216 Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports > to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people > what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than > the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher > within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other > drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any > European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share > the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good > candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you > they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 16:45:40 -0400
Are you able to read?


On Apr 20 04:13 AM provengers666 wrote:

> Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports
> to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people
> what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than
> the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher
> within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other
> drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any
> European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share
> the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good
> candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you
> they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-473095 473095 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:13:30 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic...

I have similar numbers to yours based on US-only, on-label-only use, but much higher numbers when you add in ROW and off-label. And then the additional cancers, both US & ROW....

I think your 30% haircut for the approval question is much too high. This was done under a Special Protocol Assessment, DNDN more than hit their number - approval is almost certain. Maybe a 5% haircut?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-472186 472186 Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports > to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people > what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than > the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher > within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other > drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any > European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share > the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good > candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you > they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:24:42 -0400 And your overseas findings are also bad. They will have less costs with a partner and yes they will share profits. It is difficult to figure the bottom line to DNDN. So settle down provengers


On Apr 20 04:13 AM provengers666 wrote:

> Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports
> to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people
> what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than
> the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher
> within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other
> drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any
> European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share
> the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good
> candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you
> they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-472180 472180 Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports > to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people > what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than > the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher > within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other > drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any > European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share > the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good > candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you > they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:18:08 -0400

On Apr 20 04:13 AM provengers666 wrote:

> Hey, Phil....you just lost all credibility...for someone who purports
> to have such strong opinions, you might want to at LEAST tell people
> what the most current share count is....hint: it's a LOT higher than
> the 82 million you referenced, and it will likely become much higher
> within the next year as the company raises money to develop the other
> drugs in the pipeline.....also, you might want to mention that any
> European sales will be much less profitable as they have to share
> the proceeds with the partner....that said, it seems to be a good
> candidate for a run to $30 in the near term...anyone who tells you
> they can predict the longer term is full it...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-471419 471419 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:23:43 -0400
As for investment, I'm long Jan 2011 calls. I don't expect the share price to go anywhere unless a buyout occurs before the FDA's decision on the sBLA and can get less capital exposure out of this play.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-470417 470417 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 18:43:26 -0400 vitiaminD3world.com for some good summaries of the data]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-469551 469551 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:56:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-469258 469258 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 04:13:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-469015 469015 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 20:26:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468842 468842 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:37:48 -0400
I think that, within a few years' time, every single one of them will ask and have treatment with Provenge. But let's just assume they will be 50,000.

Each Provenge treatment will reportedly cost $40,000 (I mean the whole treatment: blood taking, then three infusions),

50,000 x 40,000 = € 2,000,000,000.00.

In a few years' time, with stabilization of financial market, DNDN might fetch 10x sales.

This gives me a market cap of 20,000,000,000.00.

For simplicity's sake (but it should not be much far from reality) I assume there will be 100,000,000 DNDN shares (2007 annual report share count is 82,531,000).

This gives me a pps of $200.00.

This excludes ROW (almost a triple if we just count the EU, Japan, the so-called "western world". Think India, think China....... vbg)

All of the above excludes:
1 - Neuvenge;
2 - the treatment that DNDN will be able to develop against Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) - actually in pre-clinical phase - lung, colon, breast cancer;
3 - Carbonic anhydrase IX (CA9) - cervical, colon, renal, cancers (pre-clinical phase);
4 - the small molecule against Trp-p8 - prostate, breast, colon, lung cancers (moving from pre-clinical into clinical phase).

I have a substantial (at least, for me!) position into DNDN and plan to buy more with full hands as soon as the FDA will approve Provenge. And the hell with diversification! I'll sell my first batch at $80, my second at $400 and will sell the rest later and will retire early!

This is a revolution: many people, diagnosed with cancer, will live longer and better thanks to Dendreon.

phil]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468763 468763 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:06:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468471 468471 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 11:46:21 -0400
Dendreon has stated it will re-buff take over offers or joint offers. Since the product line is not but an initial offering, the risk reward ratio has been huge...the reward will be huge now that the years of research & efficacy verification have completed.

The top figure mentioned in the article of $76 may be accurate...until distribution begins, and then...+++.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468329 468329 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 10:31:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468205 468205 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 09:04:09 -0400 Long DNDN]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131569-how-much-is-dendreon-worth?source=feed#comment-468125 468125 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 07:46:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130291-four-electronic-health-record-plays-and-strategies?source=feed#comment-461010 461010 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 21:16:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130291-four-electronic-health-record-plays-and-strategies?source=feed#comment-460074 460074 Sat, 11 Apr 2009 19:08:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127188-four-promising-embyronic-stem-cell-stocks?source=feed#comment-449514 449514 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:01:11 -0400
You need to put more effort into your touts--at least "appear" to care for the company.

First, help me to understand what an "investment grade company" is in a world that is trying to identify investment strategies (nuts-and-bolts) that failed and at the same time create (or save) approaches that are sound?

"Investment grade"? In Biotech? It's all about R & D and pipeline. From Start-up to established (Wyeth, Geron, Merck, Glaxo... etc...) Hmmmm, should I invest in an "investment grade" company that has no pipeline, is cutting R&D, and has patents expiring? Or, one that is praying the the FTC approves their buyout/merger(s) because their pipeline is dry?

Playing in Biotech is always risky. Plenty of challenges exist to get a drug/treatment from R&D to FDA approval on to manufacturing and then to market.

So what do you do? Know that most drugs in the pipeline will fail as you look for your "homerun". Yes, do your due diligence --research, research, research -- but in the end you simply need to have as many pieces of the legit pie (diabetes, stem cell, Alzheimer's, delivery systems, etc) as possible,

Oh, and don't put ALL your biotech investment in Thermogenesis (KOOL). But, I am certain you are happy with your 8% to 12% daytrading swings. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127188-four-promising-embyronic-stem-cell-stocks?source=feed#comment-445288 445288 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 12:13:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127188-four-promising-embyronic-stem-cell-stocks?source=feed#comment-443624 443624 Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:11:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127188-four-promising-embyronic-stem-cell-stocks?source=feed#comment-441651 441651 Thu, 26 Mar 2009 19:08:44 -0400
I personally have alot to gain, as do alot of people i know, and its the little companies that grow into big ones. think of the kids that started playing with computers in there garage, they later went ont to become apple.

One step at a time, a great trek is made.
Jason.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127188-four-promising-embyronic-stem-cell-stocks?source=feed#comment-436198 436198 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 06:06:38 -0400