Dan Perkins

Inflation or Deflation: Which Will Win?

My dog has fleas!

Prepare Yourself for the Inflation Invasion

D. CHU says: "When we finally come out of this recession" Assuming it is only going to be a recession; we could have 10 years of deflation first. All the hot money running into hard assets will make an even hotter exit when people realize they guessed wrong.

If everyone in your neighborhood is financially strapped and you offer to increase their debt, they are going to tell you to take a hike! If you hand them money, they are either going to pay down debt or save it, not go out on a massive buying spree and run up prices! The US is your neighborhood! Oh, and the rest of the world is doing the same thing! They are trying to keep their ship afloat, not going on binge spending sprees!

Prepare Yourself for the Inflation Invasion

Somebody explain how we destroy something along the lines of $14T in wealth, stash 1/14th of that amount back into banks, where is mostly just sits, and/or will be paid back, in an economy where the vast majority are maxed out or unemployed - and get inflation? We are having to give $5K rebates to get people to buy cars for Pete's sake.

OK, what happened after every other massive speculative bubble in the history of the country? Deflation, major recession or depression. We already had massive inflation in everything, particularly real estate. The pendulum has got to swing hard the other way, and for a long time! Buffet is screaming inflation because he needs to create it. If it was certain he would not have to promote it!

OK, lets say all the speculators speculate on inflation, then what, commodities etc spike in price, it kills any momentum in the economy and back to depression! It is simple and inevitable - Period!

Prepare Yourself for the Inflation Invasion

Somebody explain how we destroy something along the lines of $14T in wealth, stash 1/14th of that amount back into banks, where is mostly just sits, and/or will be paid back, in an economy where the vast majority are maxed out or unemployed - and get inflation? We are having to give $5K rebates to get people to buy cars for Pete's sake.

OK, what happened after every other massive speculative bubble in the history of the country? Deflation, major recession or depression. We already had massive inflation in everything, particularly real estate. The pendulum has got to swing hard the other way, and for a long time! Buffet is screaming inflation because he needs to create it. If it was certain he would not have to promote it!

OK, lets say all the speculators speculate on inflation, then what, commodities etc spike in price, it kills any momentum in the economy and back to depression! It is simple and inevitable - Period!

Book Review: Soros, The World's Most Influential Investor, by Robert Slater

John,
Very nice: You are definitely on to something here, but, tragically, I don't think most people will get it. I have a similar observation about Jimmy Rogers, Marc Faber and many others. I wonder what would possess them to repeatedly jump in front of a camera at un-Godly hours from all over the world and tell us how screwed up everything is - at this point in their lives?

There does not seem to be any connection whatsoever between success, money, talent, and the ability to exist peacefully. You would think it would be blatantly obvious to them as they possess the wealth of kings but are somehow tormented by their own minds, and projecting in on to the world - quite literally!.

And what of these wealthy tycoons that off themselves when the market crashes? Pure emptiness without their money - but then, how did they survive childhood?

For whatever reason, they simply cannot see the world as a metaphor for their own mental projections! Your mind does not define what you perceive "around you", nearly so much as what your mind see's around it, defines your mind!

The tycoon's belief that the world is unbearable without his vast wealth is due entirely to a faulty mind and completely devoid of any objective reality! There is absolutely nothing anywhere on the planet to validate a belief that he has staked his life on! If you believe you are nothing without your money, then that you shall be, but why does the austere monk live in total peace? They are simply thoughts, or habitual patterns of electrons!

If you believe the world is screwed up, then in your mind, it is! Goerge knows not what it is he so desperately seeks, nor do most people, but until they cease chasing, they never will.

Investor Capitulation: What to Watch Now

Something important to keep in mind: Your perspective is one separateness from all those capitulators out there somewhere.

When you get true capitulation, you may very well have been sucked into the vortex as well. Capitulation comes when you and everyone else are truly convinced that all the trouble has passed about three times in a row, only to get pummeled again: Dow 5K, then Dow 4K, then Dow 3K.

On the third time, you and everyone truly believe the world is coming unglued, just say, "to hell with it, I give up - that's capitulation.

The whole thing is rather paradoxical and very difficult to remain separated from! It is not as though you will be sitting back and watching all the foolish capitulators!

USO: Death by a Thousand Contangos

Forget oil: Beaver Pelts are always in demand!

Deflation? What Deflation?

User 29928: Your comment makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!

Deflation? What Deflation?

JLOUNSBURY59: Nice to see that there is someone out there with the brainpower to figure this out! Every asset class on the planet is dropping like a rock and nobody is buying as they expect it to fall further - dissect it however you want - but it ain't inflation - and it ain't gonna be - period!
We just deleveraged trillions in debt and are just getting started The new money being printed will replace a small fraction of the total leveraged debt being destroyed. Nothing is going back to where it was because we cannot reproduce that debt/leverage/bubble again.

Oil Bear Markets

Are you guy's covering your tracks or what? We all pretty have a handle on what happened. The question is what's next?

Are We in Deflation or Inflation?

"Inflationoidiation" - One who is genetically programmed towards the threat of inflation and cannot let go of the idea no matter what.

This really is not that difficult: Every asset class on the planet is getting significantly cheaper by the day. Global economies are dying on the vine. Unless the fed simply starts pumping a trillion a week directly into US households, there is absolutely no way on earth to grow any aspect of any economy faster than wealth is being destroyed. All the money the fed and treasury are pumping out is just shoring up balance sheets, it is not going into the economy as growth or cash directly to the citizenry and driving up prices. It is sitting in banks awaiting doomsday!

How on earth do you deleverage and decrease the value of the dollar at the same time! Will we get inflation when we hit rock bottom? Perhaps but at a very slow rate - concidental with the very slow rate of growth of the economy as it eases out of this mess!

If you are worried about China or Japan selling dollars; don't - the dollar is gaining value - as happens with deflation!

Gold's Fundamentals: 'Extremely Appealing'

Clue 1: "In a crisis like this, you would expect gold would perform well. It hasn't done that. It's dropped lower than I ever thought was possible at this stage of the cycle." IE: Joe got burned!

If Clue 1, where Joe Foster admits that he doesnt' get it isn't enough, see Clue 2:

Clue 2: "First we'll go through a weak economy and deflationary scare, which will be favorable for gold." Then he say's we get inflation which will be good for gold. IE: Joe got burned because he does not get it!

This comment completely discounts the authors credibility and/or honesty. Joe Foster is either clueless, lying or both. You cannot have it both ways. Yea, right Joe, inflation and deflation are good for gold!

Gold is almost purely a luxury item. It looks nice so people want to wear it. But they need money to throw around, Joe and right now, that is a problem!

Buying gold right now is like investing in mink in 1929. When everyone is broke, luxury items go down in price not up! There is no magic, no secret formula, nothing to figure out!

Gold hit $850 an ounce in the mid 80's and $200 an ounce in the early 2000. There is no correlation between gold and inflation. When things get scary, the snake oil salesman start peddling gold and then sell theirs at the top while sucker are buying. The dealers got had this time expecting a $3000 top and bought high. The only way for one fool to get out is for another fool to get in.

Even if there were a correlation, it would not matter. We are in deflationary spiral, which will continue for years to come!

Big Money Managers Are Cautiously Bullish - Barron's

But max-optimism signals a top not a bottom?

Impending Inflation? The Global 'New Deal' All but Guarantees It

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” Ludwig von Mises – 1949

Ludwig often used the following analogy to describe it:

"Imagine someone jumping from a plane at 15,000 feet without a parachute, the ensuing whistling noise as he plummets towards earth and finally, the ensuing S-P-L-A-T."

He frequently cautioned against becoming distracted by the whistling and to accept only the SPLAT as your cue!

Impending Inflation? The Global 'New Deal' All but Guarantees It

I am fairly certain that our main man Ludwig broke the code on this one:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” Ludwig von Mises – 1949

Wouldn't you know it, Greenspan missed the lecture!