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Dan Ramsden

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  • Why Apple / Facebook Makes Sense [View article]
    These comments are missing the forest for the trees. Sorry guys, the iAd platform - regardless of any technical definition, which we can debate - does nothing to alter the meaning of this article or its speculations. If you feel that iAds makes Apple an advertising-based company in the business of selling ads, have a ball.
    Jan 23, 2011. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple / Facebook Makes Sense [View article]
    Again, see comment above. Apple facilitates the sale of ads for third party app developers and other publishers. It's an infrastructure, a platform, enabling the integration of ads into apps. The concept is a technology solution, and that's what Apple sells.
    Jan 23, 2011. 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple / Facebook Makes Sense [View article]
    Sorry, guys, but you are all mixing "apples" & oranges. You are referring to services offered. Different concept from that of a media platform selling ads as a source of core revenue. Apple iAds is a platform. Yes, Apple takes a split of revenue for offering it, but Apple is the facilitator for other publishers. Very different things, so let's be clear, and let's be less aggressive for no reason. Thanks.
    Jan 23, 2011. 06:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Facebook Coup [View article]
    Actually, if GS earns say $200 million in fees for the IPO and the placement of $1.5 billion (reported) of private shares to clients, then FB's valuation could diminish by half and GS still be more or less ok. The fee estimate may be conservative. I tip my hat.
    Jan 3, 2011. 08:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Valuations Are Stretched, But Does It Matter? [View article]
    It's a major comment on the state of "markets" when all analysis can be tossed aside because only one trade really matters: the Fed. One of the most important side effects of QE, that is not often discussed, is that market efficiency has been damaged... as this article demonstrates. When it's no longer possible to have a real opinion on valuation, because valuations are now artificial and determined by a single driver, what does bullishness mean, or bearishness? And how does one go about seeking alpha?
    Dec 27, 2010. 08:47 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook, The Media Titan - A Leveraged Recap Would Suit It Well [View article]
    No, you are clearly not alone. In fact, since you posted your comment, a fairly significant private block has cleared the market at an implied valuation of $56 billion, or 28x revenues.

    I don't disagree with your views. But still, we're not talking about a new venture that hasn't yet tried to produce cash, or doesn't know its business model yet, like Twitter. Facebook has been at this for a while, and the user base has been huge for at least a couple of years. In other words, they haven't been holding out.

    A 20x-28x revenue multiple should have the potential to become a 5-6x multiple pro forma pretty fast - like, in a year or so, I think - for current valuation to be justified. Do we see Facebook doing $10 billion in revenues next year? Maybe, I don't know. If not next year, then the year after... but would have to be even more then... the longer they take, the harder it is for $40-56 billion current value to hold.

    By the way, all these private trades that keep clearing are not primary shares. It's current shareholders exiting.
    Dec 17, 2010. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A look back 30-year mortgages over the past five years makes the recent rate spike look more like a "normalization," Paul Kedrosky maintains, "with rates heading back to something more like 'normal' levels." Yes, it's been a fast bounceback, but "attributing it all to the arrival of the fabled bond vigilantes seems more than a little breathless."  [View news story]
    What difference does it make what's causing it? It is the last thing an already depressed real estate market needs and, together with other adverse loan-rate consequences of the recent bond market pull-back, will be adverse for the economy. Vigilantes or not, this was not what Bernanke aimed to accomplish.
    Dec 15, 2010. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 will rise 11% next year to 1,379, according to the average of eleven strategists who participated in a Bloomberg survey. If their predictions are correct, it will mark a 53% return for the benchmark index since 2008, the best three-year stretch since the late 1990s.  [View news story]
    One could argue that this stretch of time should be marked by an asterisk in the record books, because during this time the market was driven by artificial means, largely unilateral. On the other hand, who knows, maybe this is how it's going to be now. Even so, the asterisk should still be noted, marking the beginning of an era.
    Dec 13, 2010. 09:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds: It's OK to Panic, But Take Your Time [View article]
    I wonder why everyone is so quick to attribute the bond sell-off to growing economic confidence. This was a massive decline that took place two days after Bernanke on TV, where he revealed nothing new. The only catalyst for a massive sell-off would be the tax deal and its details, and most economists agreed that the impact of that on the economy would likely be slim. Also, you would think that if economic optimism was really the thing, then the money coming out of bonds would be going into stocks, but equities barely moved yesterday, and were down most of the day.
    Dec 9, 2010. 06:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is Bernanke 100% Sure? [View article]
    I was thinking the same thing when I saw the interview. Bankers are generally trained to never be 100% sure about anything. It's ensconced in the DNA. I winced when I heard 100%. I couldn't believe the statement coming from the Fed Chairman. I frankly can't believe the Fed Chairman would participate in a television interview when traditionally every word breathed by the Fed is nitpicked for nuance and hidden meaning by analysts worldwide. Oh well, I guess nobody takes this fluff seriously anymore.
    Dec 7, 2010. 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is QE2 the Road to Zimbabwe-Style Hyperinflation? Not Likely. [View article]
    I may be misunderstanding some of the explanation, which is excellent by the way, but is it suggested that the value of currency is defined only by its relation to money supply... and since liquid bonds are part of that supply, then exchanging cash for bonds keeps the money supply level constant? If so, questions arise:

    1) Is it not more precisely the relation between supply and demand of money, rather than just supply alone, that determines inflation? And don't real goods factor into that balance?

    2) Is it not the case that with the level of bond issuance increasing to finance the interest of previous bond issuances, that the money supply is not increasing in corresponding balance with real economic productivity?

    3) Would the deleveraging cycle currently underway not have to continue indefinitely as an offsetting mechanism to protect against eventual inflation resulting from the issues raised (unless I misunderstand)?

    Dec 2, 2010. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sunday Times of London reports the expected aid package for Ireland will reach €120B ($164B), more than double previous estimates and larger than Greece's bailout. The package, which could be unveiled as soon as tomorrow, will require the country to raise taxes and nationalize more banks.  [View news story]
    Nikkei is up 1% on the news. Incredible. This is considered good news. Too bad the bailout didn't have to be $18 trillion, markets would have gone through the roof. Can't wait for Portugal and Spain, the markets should hit records.
    Nov 21, 2010. 07:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sunday Times of London reports the expected aid package for Ireland will reach €120B ($164B), more than double previous estimates and larger than Greece's bailout. The package, which could be unveiled as soon as tomorrow, will require the country to raise taxes and nationalize more banks.  [View news story]
    Here we go (July 2010):

    Bank of Ireland and AIB Pass European Stress Test
    Nov 21, 2010. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sunday Times of London reports the expected aid package for Ireland will reach €120B ($164B), more than double previous estimates and larger than Greece's bailout. The package, which could be unveiled as soon as tomorrow, will require the country to raise taxes and nationalize more banks.  [View news story]
    A bigger question that comes to mind is, if what was initially thought to be unnecessary altogether, then rumored to be around $50 billion, in fact turns out to be $160 billion, what lies in store in other parts of Europe (e.g., Spain, Portugal, gulp, UK) that "stress tests" and Euro politicos have assured everyone about?

    I don't recall, but what actually did last summer's "stress tests" report about Irish banks?
    Nov 21, 2010. 03:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +2K to 439K vs. 443K consensus. Continuing claims -48K to 4,295,000.  [View news story]
    I think the recent employment data is for the market the worst of both worlds... Companies cutting less and thus the built-in EPS lift goes away... but employment nowhere close to sufficient to give revenues a boost. Could be this way for a while, but here I go thinking again that fundamentals matter. When will I learn... QE2, HFT, let's party.
    Nov 18, 2010. 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment