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Dan Rayburn

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  • Apple Building Out Their Own CDN To Deliver Content To Consumers [View article]
    Good question. I know they plan to use Apache Traffic Server for caching, but what all of the pieces will be I don't know.

    None of the patents Akamai, Limelight or Level 3 have should keep Apple from doing this or force them to have to license anything. Keep in mind that to date, of all the CDNs that have sued one another, none have yet to win in court.

    Acquiring LLNW or any other CDN would give you big components of the business you don't want, don't need, or don't want to be in. Much easier to spend less capex and build a purpose driven CDN only for what Apple's needs are. Just like Microsoft. In Microsoft's case they did buy some technology from Limelight, but they could have bought the whole company and didn't.
    Feb 4 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Building Out Their Own CDN To Deliver Content To Consumers [View article]
    "AKAM said on its call not one customer is greater than 5% of their business did they not?"

    No, that's not what they said. Akamai said:
    "We don't have any 10% revenue customers, but we have kind of disclosed in the past that we have had a 10% receivable customer. So, you can – we have a very large customer, this is that large customer, that's renewing. This customer has not renewed in a few years, so you can imagine that their pricing is dated from a few years ago."

    Also, I said, "It's too early to know the degree of impact this will have on Akamai's business with Apple this year as it takes time to build out CDN infrastructure to scale." No where did I imply this would have any kind of immediate impact on Akamai's business.
    Feb 3 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Akamai: Q4 Could Be A Catalyst [View article]
    "In addition, Akamai has new partnerships with IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) that should ramp substantial revenue over time."

    Based on what data are you making that assumption? That's also what people thought about Akamai's partnerships with Ericsson and Riverbed and neither of those worked out.

    I'm not saying the deals with IBM and Cisco can't or won't amount to anything positive, they very well could, but you're already saying they will and calling the revenue "substantial", with no data. And what exactly does "substantial" mean, defined how?

    "Verizon was partly motivated by AT&T's deal to resell Akamai's content delivery services." That's not true all all, talk to Verizon instead of assuming that. Verizon is not threated by AT&T in any way. AT&T failed with their own CDN services for 10 years and threw in the towel and decided they had to resell a third party CDN. Plus, Akamai is paying a lot of money to get acess inside AT&T's network, which they never had until that deal was made:
    http://bit.ly/1cTqeae

    "Internet traffic is still growing fast enough to more than offset pricing changes." That's not accurate at all. How much is pricing falling? How much is traffic growing? Why didn't you publish the numbers if that's the case? And even with video traffic growing, it's the least profitable type of traffic a CDN can put over their network.

    "Conversations with customers indicate vast quantities of high-quality video is poised to move online over the next few years". Who's conversations, yours? Akamai's? With customers from what verticals and what size contracts? And what does "high-quality" mean? Are you talking about HD specifically?

    Lots of very generic, high-level and vague statements with no real details or concrete analysis.
    Jan 9 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dirty Little Secret About 4K Streaming: Content Owners Can't Afford The Bandwidth Costs [View article]
    Your comment has nothing to do with 4K and is pitching a technology from a company that almost no one even uses. For the past six years, the company has averaged revenue of only $800k per quarter.
    Jan 8 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3 To Surpass Limelight As No. 2 CDN In The Market, Based On Revenue [View article]
    It's because the price for delivering video is so low. That's whay all CDNs struggle to make money from delivering video. Level 3 is unique since they own the network and have lower costs, which means that should make money on video - but not a lot.
    Oct 28 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Gets More Competitive With Announcement Of Custom SSL Support For Static And Dynamic Content Delivery [View article]
    Correct, I don't care about stock prices. I am not a money manager nor do I buy/sell stocks, so I have no position in companies. I write tech articles which appear on my blog at streamingmediablog.com.

    This article was not written for Seeking Alpha. Seeking Alpha copied the original article from my blog (with permisssion.)
    http://bit.ly/17JBrNy
    Jun 13 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Gets More Competitive With Announcement Of Custom SSL Support For Static And Dynamic Content Delivery [View article]
    "dedicated servers" have nothing to do with running services in the cloud. and amazon wasn't offering any web services in 2000.
    Jun 12 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Gets More Competitive With Announcement Of Custom SSL Support For Static And Dynamic Content Delivery [View article]
    I am not a wall street money manger or a financial analyst. I track technologies. Amazon's earnings for the last quarter or two have nothing to do with new functionality they have announced.
    Jun 12 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Akamai: Platform Already Delivers 20% Of All Web Traffic And Will Continue Growing [View article]
    There are a lot of comments made in this post as facts, which are really opinions. But the bigger point is that you don't define the word "performance". Customers measure performance very differently, for different services, and in different verticals. There is no agreed upon standard in the market for how "performance" is measured.

    "The upside is that many have tried to compete against Akamai for years, and Akamai still managed to keep its price premium safe."

    That's not accurate. The company has said for nearly two years now that they have had to lower pricing, on large media deals. Also, the whole reason they bought Cotendo was that Cotendo was forcing them to reuduce their pricing on high-margin value add services.

    "The downside is that having many data centers all over the world is currently a competitive advantage hard to beat"

    Who are you referencing? Akamai does not have data centers and most telcos only have regional data centers, not ones located all over the world.

    "Maybe a new way (either a protocol or algorithm or something else) to accelerate the web will appear."

    Companies arent' "accelerating the web", they are accelerating applications delivered over the web.

    "Not surprisingly, Limelight's stock has also performed worse than Akamai Technologies. This shows that the market is well aware of who is the best in terms of performance."

    Akamai's stock has done better as the company is profitable, has a lot of cash in the bank, continues to grow and usually acheives guidance. That has nothing to do with the "performance" of their network, something the "market" doesn't even measure.

    You can't reference the data from the paper in 2008. CDNs change so much each year, let alone from 5 years ago. Both Limelight and Akamai's network's look much different today and you can't compare performace from one company to another, from a high level. You can only compare it based on a specific set of measurement data, for a particular customer, for a specific service.

    All CDNs have good days and bad days, Akamai is no exception. Akamai's website was down for hours yesterday, so all CDNs do have problems at times.

    "the demand for Akamai network will continue increasing".

    Akamai does not sell "network", Akamai has services they sell that run over their network. You're not using many of the phrases correctly in this article.

    "The more servers you have in your network and the more locations you cover, the more efficient your CDN will be."

    Do you have factual data to back that up? The performance of content being delivered over any network is due to many factors, not just the number of locations you place servers OR the number of servers you have. So the statement, as your wrote it, is not factual.

    "And Akamai is already very big. Too big to be reached by a small startup."

    Define "reached". Cotendo was a small srartup, about $25M in funding and in under 3 years they put so much pressure on Akamai that Akamai acquired them for about 10X revenue. So the idea that no small company can impact Akamai is not accurate.

    Akamai has a lot of strengths. Brand, awareness of that brand in the market, profitability, cash in bank, size of sales force amogst other things. But they also have risks to their business, and over the past two years, the growth of their business has slowed, the volume of traffic growth on their network has slowed and the company gets beaten to the market with new products and services by those who are faster and more nimble. No competitor will displace Akamai's revenue, customer count or volume of traffic served, but Akamai's still has to work very hard to grow their business and vague statements about the "performance" of their network aren't accurate, nor relevant.

    All that matters is how a specific customer defines performance, measures it, and what they are willing to pay for that service.
    Jun 11 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaming Video Can't Scale At Cable TV Quality, Will Never Replace Traditional TV Distribution [View article]
    HEVC is 5+ years away.

    Any video technology touches many components as it travels from glass to glass, such as cameras, NLE systems, video indexing systems, statistical multiplexers, satellite transponders, head-ends and (perhaps most importantly) CPEs. Similarly on the OTT side, transcoders, file formats, streaming protocols, streaming servers, content protection systems, network optimization platforms and end devices all need to support HEVC before an end to end solution becomes broadly viable.

    It will take many years before all of these pieces of the video ecosystem can support HEVC and provide a real solution.
    Jan 15 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaming Video Can't Scale At Cable TV Quality, Will Never Replace Traditional TV Distribution [View article]
    "the title is a ridiculous assertion that will be proven wrong in a few short years."

    That's what the NY Times article said five years ago. Didn't happen. Each year that goes by, people say "in a few years" it will change. And then they say it year after year. Over and over.
    Jan 15 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaming Video Can't Scale At Cable TV Quality, Will Never Replace Traditional TV Distribution [View article]
    Define "revoluntion"? If less than 1% of the market has cut cable, over a multi-year period that's not revolution. Sports will not be streamed online, live, with no blackouts, for a cheap price. Why would they do that? All of the sports leagues sell their content to broadcasters for billions. Why would they do that to then put it on the Internet and make far less money? There is no business value to them doing that.
    Jan 15 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaming Video Can't Scale At Cable TV Quality, Will Never Replace Traditional TV Distribution [View article]
    Too many people want to disagree by saying things like "soon", "shortly", "in a few years" etc. it yet it doesn't happen. The reality is that year after year, the advances that people predict will take place don't happen.

    Just look at the all in one Apple TV, the product does not even exist, yet some analusts have been saying for 5 years it coming "next year". Just one example of many.
    Jan 15 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaming Video Can't Scale At Cable TV Quality, Will Never Replace Traditional TV Distribution [View article]
    And while Netflix gained 30M subscribers, cable/satellite providers combined haven't even lost 1M subscribers in any one year. Not even 1% of the market has cut cable. Netflix isn't a replacement for the majority.
    Jan 14 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gene Munster's Apple TV Predictions And Data Are Seriously Flawed [View article]
    He's not a "colleague" of mine. I am not Wall Street money manager paid to give out stock advice.
    Aug 14 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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