Seeking Alpha

Dan Rayburn

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Dan Rayburn's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Amazon's Prime Streaming Will Disrupt Netflix [View article]
    That's not what I said:

    "While Amazon has not publicly said how many Prime members they have, analysts on Wall Street all seem to agree that there are about 10M Prime members. Of those, it is estimated that 60% are paying members."
    Feb 25 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's Prime Streaming Will Disrupt Netflix [View article]
    "It will be interesting to see how Amazon's video server speed does once demand ramps up, however. "

    Amazon videos are being delivered by third party CDNs, including Limelight Networks, which is also one of the CDNs that delivers Netflix's content. Amazon's "video servers" are not being used.
    Feb 25 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    Saying I "hate" Apple is simply not accurate. I have never owned a PC in my life and have had more than 15 different Apple models in my lifetime. Right now I have two MacBook Pro's, an iPad, iPod Touch, Apple TV, Airport Express and Airport Extreme. Right out of high school, I become an Apple Authorized Technician and was trained and Certified directly from Apple. The fact is, I love many Apple products and would not trade my MacBook for any other computer in the world. But that does not mean I have to agree with everything Apple does.

    As for the reference to Apple "cleaning my clock" because I am the VP of StreamingMedia.com - that makes no sense. StreamingMedia.com is a news organization, we don't compete with Apple in any way and I don't know what you mean when you say my "vested partners". We're not in the hardware, platform, or content licensing/selling business. We put on trade shows, publish a magazine and publish articles about the industry.

    Yes, I would rather use my Roku box over Apple TV because I like wathing MLB, Hulu Plus, NHL and have access to Amazon Video On Demand. I like choice and having lots of it and that's what the Roku gives me. Right now, the Apple TV does not give me that. Could it down the road? Sure. But today, it doesn't and you simply can't argue with that.
    Jan 1 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    Playing back local content is not contributing any kind of content revenue to Apple or to content owners. Yes, the devices supports it, but using it to play back your photos and music is not the main driver of the device. It's a nice added benefit, but not what the studios are hoping you will do with the device.
    Jan 1 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    I thrive on being realistic and actually looking at real data and numbers, which most folks don't seem to want to do these days.

    Unpopular? No good author should care about that. If I only wrote posts I thought would make me "popular" then I'd be writting stuff that was crap.
    Jan 1 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    People use words like "winner" without defining what that means. Winner based on what metric? Revenue? Number of units sold? Adoption rate?
    Jan 1 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    Just go Google Apple TV, from the 2007 time period, and you will see a lot of analysts at research companies talking about how it would change the landscape. Do your reasearch.
    Jan 1 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    No studio is getting any large checks from Apple due to the Apple TV. The vast majority of all the iTunes rentals and sales are not being viewed on the TV screen.
    Dec 22 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Major Impact on the Industry From Apple Selling 1M Apple TV Units [View article]
    When the first Apple TV device came out, folks said it would forever change the way consumers watched movies. But after 3 years in the market, it had almost no impact at all. We have to set realistic goals and right now, too many folks think devices have more of an impact than they really do. So it's not about being a "visionary", it's about being realistic. None of these devices will get mass-market adoption in just a year or two.

    I don't own stock in any public company so I am not "betting" against anyone, but I do not believe that the Apple TV will be the winner in the living room in the years to come.
    Dec 22 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Level 3's Lower Cost Comes from Owning the Network, Not Free Peering [View article]
    Level 3 does not get any of Netflix's traffic until January 1st, 2011, that's when the contract kicks in. I don't know of any "big outage" at Netflix last week, but if there was one, it was not due to Level 3 as they don't even have Netflix's business as of yet.
    Dec 7 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Netflix Helped Create a Multibillion-Dollar Industry [View article]
    Hi Alexander, Amazon's Video On Demand Service is not available on the Apple TV. And while it is available on smart phones, it's only available on four models today.

    Also, the total CDN industry outside of video is in the billions, but the video portion of that business is not even $1B annually. So Netflix is helping to grow the video market, but they have not created a "multibillion-dollar industry". Netflix spent less than $50M in 2010 on video delivery.

    In 2008, video delivery made up 39% of CDNs total revenue, as a collective industry globally, and in 2010, that number only increased to 42.8%, even though traffic volumes grew quite a bit. The size of the video delivery market for CDNs was $400M globally in 2008 and increased to just under $600M in 2010 which is about a 13% CAGR. (cdnpricing.com)
    Dec 3 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Recent CDN Deal With Level 3 Is Not an Indication of New Pricing Wars [View article]
    Hi Mark, yes, it is confusing. I edited it on my blog, but SeekingAlpha.com does not pick up on the changes so I will have to contact them to let them know. I expect they will have it fixed today. Thanks.
    Nov 16 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Online Video Industry Is Flying High Right Now, But It Can't Last [View article]
    I won't go into my finances, but the company I co-founded was sold ten years ago during the 1999 time frame when the real bubble was around. Needless to say, the sale price was about 30X revenue and never should have been purchased for so much, but that's the way it worked back then.

    Purchasing stock is simply an action. Anyone can do it so I don't see why someone can't have an opinion on a company just because they haven't gone online and hit the purchase button for a particular company.
    Sep 30 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Online Video Industry Is Flying High Right Now, But It Can't Last [View article]
    I think it's sad that you think someone has to spend money on a stock in order to have a "valid say" about a company. As for you implying that I have never even used Netflix's service to begin with, see my comment above:

    On my blog I have done hands-on reviews of Netflix on the Xbox 360, Roku, PS3, Wii, Mac, and many other devices over the past three years. bit.ly/boJiMu

    Here's what my living room setup consists of:

    - Roku, Xbox 360, PS3, Apple TV, Sling, TiVo, Popbox, VUDU, WD TV Live, Sony Netbox, 3 set top boxes, 5 broadband enabled blu-ray players and three broadband enabled TVs. Also a few other devices I can't name as they are not yet announced.
    Sep 30 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Online Video Industry Is Flying High Right Now, But It Can't Last [View article]
    Ok, lets talk about the music industry. N2K, Liquid Audio and a2b music all started selling digital downloads in 1996. It wasn't until 2006 that iTunes really took off. That's an entire decade.

    You say I am, "wrong in thinking that user behavior and ad dollars won't shift in a hurry." I am not wrong, I size of these markets and their growth rate backs it up. Online video advertising has been around for more than 5 years, yet its market size is not even 1% of what TV advertising is today.
    Sep 29 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
248 Comments
153 Likes