Seeking Alpha

Dan Rosenblum  

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  • Why Sales Estimates for Dendreon's Provenge Are Too Low [View article]
    I agree with you on the pricing. I would like to see them price Provenge in the $60-70,000 range, the last thing Dendreon needs is a backlash.
    May 20, 2009. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sales Estimates for Dendreon's Provenge Are Too Low [View article]
    For those of you who think I am way off base with my assumptions on both pricing and the potential Provenge market size, I urge you to avoid DNDN or even short the stock .

    However I would point out that yesterday in Boston at investor meetings ,the Dendreon CEO Mitch Gold hinted at pricing of Provenge around $80,000 per patient. He aso stated that the potential market size for the drug was around 100,000 patients per year.

    So even if they capture only half the potential market that makes it a $4 billion dollar drug, higher than my estimate .
    May 20, 2009. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sales Estimates for Dendreon's Provenge Are Too Low [View article]
    I got the number of Hormone refractory failures from the company's presentation at Merril Lynch last week. They put the number at 140,300 for some reason I thought it was 180,000.

    Remember, there are over 2 million men in the US that have had at one point or do currently have prostate cancer. Some do die from other things and some are completely cured, but very many become hormone refractory too. I was using the incidence number to try and figure out some sort of sales estimate. I am sure one can get a different number using the prevalence.
    May 18, 2009. 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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