Dan Schmeidler

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

Shoot! The above should read: "It appears ...". Sorry.

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

Thank you, Matthew, for your postings. At appears that China (and other economies with massive amounts of U.S. denominated reserves) are currently (the logical) willing buyers of Oil (in exchange for the greenback) at these levels. But these nations have (at least until recently) been mostly dependent on foreign economic growth (a la the "foreign" consumer) in order to spur their own economic growth. And until we see definitive proof that these nations can economically expand on their own, I would not be betting on continued higher commodity prices all across the board.

P.S. Love the new spell-check feature in the comment section. Thank you Seeking Alpha.

Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket?

Tough call here, but I think it is a good idea to be taking a breather here from the ag group. Oil has dropped significantly, so has gold. POT, for example, reported phenomenal Q-2 results, but it is starting to hit resistance trying to break the $210-220 level. One might think the stock is cheap right now considering the company expects to earn an annual $9.50 - $10.50 EPS. That would give the company a P/E of about 20 at $200 a share. the question is if the market is willing to bid this stock up to let's say P/E 25 ($260 stock price) based on the company's current full year guidance. Maybe, but I think there is also a possibility that fertilizer products such as Potash might experience similar downward price pressures as many other agricultural commodities have recently.