Dan Tierno

Is the Economy at an Inflection Point?

Thanks for the comments.

At times I find it very helpful, not just myself but to readers, to throw a 30,000 foot view out there, as ubiquitous and as well known as it may be.
It can be very easy to get caught up in the levels of euphoria associated with the economic recovery...the broad view helps to facilitate an interpretation of the fragmented pieces of economic indicators we receive.


On Apr 22 08:34 AM Respirate wrote:

> Cogent summary of current conditions and an enjoyable, persuasive
> read. However, this is a very long way to say what most everyone
> already knows, especially folks visiting this site.
>
> Obviously equities are overbought. Obviously the economy is still
> moving in reverse. In the given circumstances, prudent would-be consumers
> are wise to "save and pay down debt", though I wouldn't refer to
> this appropriate behavior as an 'obsession'. Workers (drop the joe
> plumber stuff already) know employment likely won't improve in a
> meaningful way until 2011-12.
>
> You make a very bold statement in saying, "The credit card culture
> is now broken". I rather suspect that it's merely on hold. This current
> financial pain must go far deeper, for far longer, to effect change
> that is truly "cultural" in breadth. Agree with your notion that
> even a temporary pull back in consumer indebtedness will dampen a
> recovery when it comes.
>
> Thanks for the fine article.
>
> --R

Bring Back the Old GM

Thanks Marketwatcher.

GM sure is looking more awful each and every day...and many more articles are propping up speculating everything from bankruptcy to GM rushing the Volt out to make a bailout more politically feasible...and in an election year no less!

It will be wild to watch...I for one want GM to stick around. Yes, capitalism is Darwinian in it's premise and maybe GM should fail for the efficiency of the industry as a whole. Furthermore, the Auto Industry has extraordinarily high fixed costs, and as such volume is the name of the game in order to spread those costs across more units. The rest of the industry would benefit from such a huge player eliminated.

But then, what of the wreckage...emotional, economical, political, and otherwise? One of the most enduring and most recognized brands on Earth...gone. An automobile manufacturer that through time has created identities for people and counties alike. Oh and by the way...266,000 employees.

Two Hundred Sixty-Six Thousand.

Bring Back the Old GM

Hey squashnut

"Did you just say GM will not go bankrupt because no one wants to buy them?"

Yep that paraphrase is accurate. I feel the government will bail them out as pointed out in the article.

"Did you just post a chart of GM's stock price chart and call it their "market share"?"

Good Call!

"...and if they go under your career as a blogging analyst is finished."

Finished? Hardly, man. I will just be wrong :)

Needless to say it will be a fascinating scenario as GM and its divisions are rapidly approaching insolvency. We shall see what the result is.

It was easier to dismantle BSC...at least 50% of staff was taken on by JPM...the other half either have generous severances or the better ones can strike out on their own or go to niche firms in the area.

What if GM were to go under? What of those displaced employees? Who will absorb that additional capacity? There most certainly will be a public uproar if GM is allowed to fold without any gov't assistance...